Willy Adames contract projection prices him out of Milwaukee and then some

Even before the 2024 season ended, the Milwaukee Brewers seemed to have made their peace with saying goodbye to star shortstop Willy Adames. This franchise is all too aware of life in a small market, and Adames — who quietly blossomed into one of the best two-way infielder in the game over three-plus seasons in Milwaukee — seemed destined to become just the next in a long line of stars to leave for richer pastures in free agency. With big-money teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves sniffing around, it wasn't hard to see the writing on the wall.

Still, no matter what your rational brain might tell you, hope is a hell of a drug. Adames was a leader in the Brewers clubhouse over the past couple of years, becoming a beloved mentor for up-and-coming talent like Jackson Chourio. And he refused to close the door on coming back to Milwaukee, telling reporters that he'd be willing to take less money to stick around — so long as his next contract was "fair".

It remains to be seen just what Adames thinks his fair value is on the open market, but if it's anything remotely close to the most recent contract projection, all the good vibes in the world won't be enough to keep him in a Brewers uniform.

Latest Willy Adames contract projection is well out of Brewers price range

Initial estimates for Adames were somewhere in the range of $160-180 million over six or seven years. The longer this offseason goes on, however, the crazier that number gets.

It's an issue of basic supply and demand: If you're a team in need of an impact player on the left side of the infield, there isn't another available player remotely like Adames. If you miss out on him, you're next best option at shortstop is former San Diego Padres infielder Ha-Seong Kim, who, while a useful player, just posted a 96 OPS+ over 121 games amid injury in 2024. Or let's say you're a team like the Toronto Blue Jays, with a glaring hole at third base. If Alex Bregman heads back to the Houston Astros, you're suddenly faced with a choice between Adames and the likes of J.D. Davis and Yoan Moncada. It's not just that Adames is an All-Star-caliber player; it's that he's an All-Star-caliber player at valuable positions without much of any free-agent depth to speak of.

So it's no surprise that the ballpark for an Adames contract just keeps climbing higher and higher. And the latest number would price the Brewers out of the running entirely: According to Baseball Trade Values, market value for Adames would land at roughly seven years, $211 million, or eight years and $231 million.

That might make your eyes water, but $30 million should be the floor for an All-Star shortstop set to enter his age-29 season. Especially when teams like the Dodgers, Braves and San Francisco Giants are going to be driving up the bidding, desperate to avoid losing out and filling their infield with scraps next season. Whatever warm and fuzzies Adames might have about his time in Milwaukee, the gap between what the Brewers can reasonably offer and what some team will be willing to pay figures to be much too big to seriously entertain the idea of a reunion.