Baseball is a game often predicated on matchups, and weaknesses teams have are exposed in the playoffs. For example, last season, we saw the San Diego Padres come extremely close to knocking out the eventual World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers largely because they had the Shohei Ohtani stopper, Tanner Scott, in their bullpen. Teams run with any advantage they can come up with and hope they can carry them to series wins.
The simple reality is that some teams match up against certain clubs better than others. Nobody wants to face a team built to beat them. With that in mind, each playoff team should have a kryptonite in mind they should want no part with.
1 postseason nightmare matchup each contender hopes to avoid
- Detroit Tigers
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Houston Astros
- Boston Red Sox
- New York Yankees
- Seattle Mariners
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- San Diego Padres
- Chicago Cubs
- New York Mets
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Detroit Tigers
Nightmare matchup: Seattle Mariners
They let the Detroit Tigers get hot. After losing each of their first two post-trade deadline series, the Tigers have won 12 of 16 to reclaim the best record in the majors and extend their AL Central lead to 10.5 games. They've been among the best teams in the sport all season long and certainly look like a team that can be labeled as such right now. If they were to face off against the Mariners in the playoffs, though, that might be problematic.
The Tigers are a team built around their ace, Tarik Skubal, arguably the best pitcher in baseball. Skubal has had a great season and has taken only three losses all year, but two of them have come against the Mariners, and he's allowed seven runs in 10.2 innings against them. He's done this against Mariners teams that haven't had Josh Naylor or Eugenio Suarez, two key deadline additions in the middle of their current order.
If Skubal is neutralized, can the Tigers really beat this Mariners team in a series? Seattle's rotation, when healthy, is as good as it gets on paper, their lineup is much improved from where it's been in recent years, and the back end of their bullpen is dominant. The Tigers can ill-afford to get anything less than ace-stuff from Skubal, and running into the Mariners could lead to that outcome.
Toronto Blue Jays
Nightmare matchup: Detroit Tigers
Two ways teams can beat the Tigers in the playoffs are making Skubal a non-factor and using left-handed pitching to neutralize the bevy of left-handed bats the Tigers have to offer. Well, the Toronto Blue Jays failed to score in six innings against Skubal the only time they faced him this season, and they don't exactly have the pitchers to hold guys like Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Colt Keith in check.
Every starting pitcher the Blue Jays have to offer with the exception of Eric Lauer, a pitcher the Jays recently moved to the bullpen, is right-handed. The only reliable left-handed reliever the Jays have is Brendon Little, a guy who has not thrown a single postseason pitch and has reverse splits.
The Jays managed to go 4-3 against the Tigers this season, but Detroit blew two of those games late and those games came before the Tigers acquired Kyle Finnegan. Considering how well Finnegan has pitched since being acquired at the trade deadline, the Tigers have reason to believe they'll do a better job closing out the Blue Jays come October.
Houston Astros
Nightmare matchup: Seattle Mariners
The Houston Astros are a scary team because of their postseason pedigree, but the 2025 team is a rather easy one to game plan against. The Astros are extremely right-handed heavy position player-wise, and the solution should be to use a ton of right-handed pitchers against them. A team like the Mariners is in prime position to take advantage of that weakness.
Sure, right-handed hitters can hit right-handed pitchers, but the Astros' right-handed hitters struggle in that regard. The Astros as a team have a 99 WRC+ against righties, tying them for 20th in the majors. On the flip side, the Astros' 108 WRC+ against southpaws is good for fifth best in the league.
Each member of the Mariners' rotation is right-handed, and Seattle's two best relievers are both right-handed as well. They all happen to be very good at what they do as well. It'd be foolish to completely count the Astros out, and getting Yordan Alvarez back certainly helps but the Mariners feel like a team that can beat them.
Boston Red Sox
Nightmare matchup: Toronto Blue Jays
The Boston Red Sox have played three series against the AL East-leading Blue Jays and have lost all three. They've gone 3-7 against the Jays overall, and if it weren't for a 15-1 win against Toronto, they would've been a -15 in the run differential category. The Blue Jays have completely outplayed them for the most part.
The story of the season series between these two teams is that outside of that aforementioned 15-1 win, the Red Sox have had a hard time scoring. That one game is responsible for nearly a third of the team's run its scored against Toronto this season, which is a bad look. What makes that fact even worse is that Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber, arguably the two best starters the Jays have to offer right now, have combined to make zero starts against Boston.
Kevin Gausman allowed just one run in eight dominant inning in his only chance against Boston this season, and Jose Berrios has allowed just three runs in 20.2 innings against the Red Sox. Both of these pitchers have successful track records against the Red Sox. I'll believe the Red Sox can score enough runs and beat the Blue Jays when I see it.
New York Yankees
Nightmare matchup: Boston Red Sox
The New York Yankees' rivalry with the Red Sox is as historic as any in sports, but lately, it's been entirely one-sided. The Yankees beat the Red Sox on Sunday, which was good to see, but they've done this just twice in 10 tries this season and have been outscored 56-38 in those games. The Yankees struggle at the plate, on the mound and in the field against their bitter rivals, and it's inexcusable.
I honestly don't have a baseball reason to explain the Yankees' struggles against the Red Sox, particularly on the defensive end. Perhaps they're in their own heads. However, until we see the Yankees beat the Red Sox in the regular season, who is going to believe New York has what it takes to do so in October?
Seattle Mariners
Nightmare matchup: New York Yankees
The Seattle Mariners are as well-rounded of a team as there is in the American League, but that hasn't exactly shown itself against the Yankees. The Mariners went just 1-5 in six meetings against the Yankees this season, and were outscored by 17 runs in those games. The only game the Mariners won was in an 11-inning victory that could've really gone either way (and the Mariners nearly blew) and they even managed to lose a game in which Bryan Woo held a no-hitter into the eighth inning.
What's most alarming about the Yankees from a Mariners lens is that Andres Munoz, their All-Star closer, has blown two saves in three opportunities against New York this season. He's gone 29-for-33 against everyone else. Cal Raleigh has also gone just 5-for-23 against the Yankees this season.
Perhaps this can turn in October, but the Mariners will have trouble winning games in October if their best hitter doesn't do much damage offensively and their closer can't seal wins.
Milwaukee Brewers
Nightmare matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers
This one might seem strange, especially since the Milwaukee Brewers went 6-0 against the Dodgers during the regular season, but there are a couple of reasons why I've pegged the Dodgers as the matchup Milwaukee should hope to avoid.
First, there's something to be said about waking up a sleeping giant. Yes, the Brewers didn't lose a single time against the defending champs, but wouldn't that only give Los Angeles added motivation come October? It's cute that the Brewers won big games in July, but they have to do it in October (they haven't in quite some time) and would figure to have trouble against a battle-tested team like Los Angeles.
Second, and perhaps most importantly, context from the season series must be taken into account. All six games were played within a two-week span in July, a month in which the Dodgers really struggled and the Brewers really excelled. Three of the six wins saw the Brewers come from behind to win. The Brewers also didn't face Blake Snell a single time. The Dodgers have had both Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman take off since July.
The Brewers are elite, and perhaps this was a bit of a stretch, but if I were them, I'd want nothing to do with the reigning champs.
Philadelphia Phillies
Nightmare matchup: New York Mets
Perhaps I'm a delusional Mets fan by picking New York as the Philadelphia Phillies' matchup nightmare, but the rationale makes sense. The Mets beat the Phillies in last year's NLDS without Juan Soto while the Phillies had Zack Wheeler. This time around, Wheeler will be sidelined and Soto will be in the middle of the Mets' order.
In theory, this Phillies lineup is beat to take on a team like the Mets due to their abundance of left-handed pitching and the Mets' season-long struggles against southpaws, but New York hasn't had much trouble hitting Cristopher Sanchez, and guys like Jesus Luzardo and Ranger Suarez have had their ups and downs. Their bullpen is much improved with Jhoan Duran closing games, but the Mets have had a good amount of success against set-up guys Orion Kerkering and Matt Strahm.
The Phillies look like the better team right now, but the Mets have won four of the team's six matchups this season, and until we see Philadelphia knock New York off in the big stage, there will be reason to believe the Mets are their kryptonite.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Nightmare matchup: Philadelphia Phillies
For whatever reason, the Phillies just play the Los Angeles Dodgers extremely well. The Dodgers have dropped each of their last four series against the Phillies dating back to the 2023 campaign, and are just 3-9 since last winning a series against Philadelphia. Perhaps their luck against the Phillies will change in a potential October matchup, and the Phillies being without Zack Wheeler certainly helps their case, but the Dodgers shouldn't want this to happen.
The Phillies have gone 7-2 against the Dodgers since Los Angeles signed Shohei Ohtani, and the Dodgers have been held to a total of 28 runs in those games. Seven of those runs came in one game, and Jordan Romano, a reliever who likely won't even be on the team's postseason roster, allowed three of them.
Shutting down the Dodgers is no easy feat, and the Phillies have been so great at doing that largely because of their ability to keep Shohei Ohtani in check. Ohtani went 1-for-11 against the Phillies this season in the team's lone series with five strikeouts. He's hit just .232 with a .662 OPS against the Phillies in his career, and he has not hit a single home run in 44 at-bats at Citizens Bank Park.
The Dodgers should not want their best player to be uncomfortable in any way, and if he's done this poorly against the Phillies, particularly at Citizens Bank Park, there's no reason to expect that to change in October in an even more hostile environment.
San Diego Padres
Nightmare matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers
It feels like the San Diego Padres are so close to being considered the top dog in the NL West, yet so far. Last season, they had two tries to knock the Dodgers out of the postseason before Los Angeles even got a chance to make an NLCS appearance, but failed to take advantage of that golden opportunity. This season, it feels like the Dodgers have played nowhere near their best baseball, yet the Padres went 4-9 against them.
The Padres did just win two of three against the Dodgers to even the NL West standings, but 4-9 speaks for itself. The Padres have been outscored by 18 runs in those games, and it feels like most of their stars just don't show up against Los Angeles.
Fernando Tatis Jr. hit .175 with a .636 OPS and drove in a total of one run against the Dodgers all year. Manny Machado hit .216 with a .575 OPS and hit one home run against the Dodgers. Dylan Cease struggled mightily in two of his three starts against the Dodgers. Robert Suarez allowed a run in three of his five appearances against Los Angeles and took two losses. 13 of the 21 earned runs Jeremiah Estrada has allowed this season have come against the Dodgers.
To put it simply, the Padres won't beat the Dodgers if their stars don't show up. Hopefully, the script flips in October if these two bitter rivals were to meet.
Chicago Cubs
Nightmare matchup: Milwaukee Brewers
It might be weird to peg the Brewers as the Chicago Cubs' biggest matchup nightmare since the Cubs actually managed to finish the season with a winning record of 7-6 against their NL Central rivals, but at the end of the day, this comes down to pitching. I'm not sure the Cubs have enough of it.
The Cubs were dealt a brutal blow with Justin Steele suffering a season-ending injury, and that's put a lot of pressure on the rest of the rotation to pick up the slack. They've done so for the most part, but can they be trusted to do so against the Brewers?
Shota Imanaga has pitched well against Milwaukee this season, but who can be trusted behind him? Matthew Boyd has allowed nine runs in 10.1 innings pitched against Milwaukee this season, and has allowed 34 runs in 137.2 innings of work against everybody else. Arguably his two worst starts of the season have come against Milwaukee. Cade Horton only made one start against the Brewers this season but he allowed five baserunners in 2.2 innings before leaving with a blister. Jameson Taillon has pitched well in two of his three starts against the Brewers this season, but is he really a reliable postseason arm?
The Brewers know the Cubs well, and feel like a team ready to take advantage of every weakness Chicago has come October.
New York Mets
Nightmare matchup: San Diego Padres
The New York Mets have two major weaknesses to keep in mind ahead of the postseason. They struggle to hit left-handed pitching, and they inexplicably shut down late in games. The Mets' loss on Sunday dropped them to an unfathomable 0-53 in games that they trail after eight innings. Nobody expects any team to win a vast majority of those games, but to not even have a single win in those spots says something. Knowing this, why should anyone expect the Mets to do anything against the super bullpen of the Padres?
Robert Suarez, Mason Miller, Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon and Jeremiah Estrada help form the best bullpen in the majors by far. Ironically enough, the Mets built their team in a similar vision hoping their bullpen will carry them, but deadline acquisitions Ryan Helsley and Tyler Rogers have struggled, and the Mets have been losing ground by the day.
Even without the bullpen, it feels like this Padres team is just built to beat the Mets. Yu Darvish might have an ERA nearing 5.50 in his nine starts this season, but he threw seven shutout innings against the Mets and has always had New York's number. Michael King has a 2.12 ERA in six appearances (two starts) in his career against the Mets. Star position players like Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill have all put up great numbers against New York. Oh yeah, the Padres swept the Mets in their series earlier this season, and have New York's 2024 secret weapon, Jose Iglesias, on their roster.