10 active baseball players who can join the 500 Home Run Club

There are a few clear thresholds that help a player make the Hall of Fame. Making a huge impact in the playoffs, especially in the World Series, helps them get over the hump. Career longevity usually helps players get to impressive statistical outcomes that push them into their museum of choice. However, there are few thresholds that can act like automatic enshrinement like the 500 Home Run Club.

Home runs are one of the most exciting moments in sports. Whether it's a first inning statement or a walkoff home run in extra innings, nothing gets a stadium rocking like a home run.

The only members of the club that aren’t in the Hall of Fame are those embroiled in the steroids scandal of the late 1990s and early 2000s. Still, eventually, we expect the likes of Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez to make Cooperstown. That’s how impactful 500 home runs is to the history of baseball. It pushes players into a different conversation.

When looking at the league today, there are no active members of the 500 Home Run Club. The last time someone entered was Miguel Cabrera in 2021. He retired in 2023. While it’s been a while, we’re expecting some players to enter the club soon enough. Which active players will join the 28 others in the club today?

1. Giancarlo Stanton
Current Home Run Total: 454

Many might be surprised that New York Yankees slugger Giancarlo Stanton is this close to the club. Theoretically, he’s the only player who could join the club this season. He’s just 46 home runs away from hitting 500. He actually hasn’t hit 46 home runs since he was traded to the Yankees before the 2018 season. Since then, he’s played in more than 140 games just once. 

Stanton is not the same guy he was on the Miami Marlins, but the power never went away. He’s a timely hitter who can crush a ball with the best of them. Even at his age, he’s still hitting the ball a mile. It’s early in the season, but he already has the hardest hit ball of the regular season (116 MPH single on April 5). When he hits home runs, they are often coming off his bat like a rocket. 

Stanton likely needs at least two seasons to hit this mark. Even with his red-hot start to the season, 46 home runs (47 when you add his one home run to start) feels like too much to ask. Even if he has his first healthy season since 2018, most would be happy with 35 home runs from Stanton. 

2. Mike Trout
Current Home Run Total: 406

In the blink of an eye, Mike Trout is 34 years old. We still expect him to be the young gun who is carrying the title as best player in the league. This was a guy built like Mickey Mantle, but without the off-the-field issues slowing him down. Unfortunately for Trout, his on-field injuries are what are slowing him down. He hasn’t played 150 games since 2016, and he’s had fewer than 100 games in four of his past six seasons.

Last season, Trout hit 130 games for the first time since 2018. It was a nice reminder of what we have in Trout. Unfortunately, he’s a shell of his former self with a career of injuries holding him down. He’s also on a dog Los Angeles Angels team that just won’t send this man to a contender. Pitchers just avoid him because there’s nothing else around him. 

We think Trout eventually hits 500 home runs, but it won’t be something that happens soon. It’s going to take at least four seasons before he makes it there, despite being fewer than 100 home runs away. Between the injuries and the impact he’s actually having on the league, we expect him to average around 25-30 home runs in a healthy season. Maybe he gets a boost if he’s traded to the Philadelphia Phillies, but until that happens, we judge him on his current situation. 

3. Aaron Judge
Current Home Run Total: 371

Aaron Judge and Mike Trout are the same age. Judge turns 34 years old at the end of April. Yet, we think that Judge, who is 35 home runs behind Trout, will break 500 home runs before the Angels’ star. That’s because Judge is still hitting home runs at an insane level. The reigning AL MVP had 50+ home runs in three of the past four seasons. It’s been a while since we’ve seen a power hitter of this caliber in the regular season.

Judge is expected to break 50 home runs again. Barring injury, he should easily dominate the league at the plate. What’s crazy is Judge has just 10 full seasons in the majors, joining the league later than most of today’s stars. He wasn’t a full-time starter until he was 24 years old. He suffered his fair share of injuries in those first few years.

Luckily for Judge, he’s been largely healthy for a long time. He’s broken 150 games in three of his past four seasons, and he won MVP in each of those seasons. This season, if he has another 50 home run season, then he should cruise to 500 home runs. Even if his numbers drop, he’d need to average 26 home runs if he played until he was 39. 

4. Kyle Schwarber
Current Home Run Total: 343

We’ll be frank here. We chose Kyle Schwarber over Bryce Harper on this list. Harper definitely has a chance to make it. He’s actually ahead of Schwarber on the list, and he’s about the same age on paper, but we think the game has done more to Harper’s body than it has to Schwarber. He’s also the last player on this list who is currently in the top 10 in home runs on the active career list. Everyone else is too old to realistically hit 500 home runs without playing until they were 45.

Schwarber is getting better with age. He actually hit a career high in home runs last season with 56. That led the National League. Can he continue to be a 50-home run guy for the next few years? If he does that two more times in his career, he just needs 57 home runs outside of those two seasons. 

At 33 years old, there’s plenty of time for him to keep contributing. It helps that he re-signed with the Phillies this offseason. He needs to stay on a good team to get quality at-bats. Pitchers are not shy about pitching around power hitters, but they can’t do it when other great hitters are right behind them. He has a real chance to make a run at 500 home runs, especially since his main position is designated hitter. Last season, he played all 162 games, and he made an appearance in the field eight times. That will only help keep him healthy.

5. Shohei Ohtani
Current Home Run Total: 283

Shohei Ohtani is going to make the Hall of Fame with or without making the 500 Home Run Club. He’s the best player in baseball, and being as great as he is at the plate and on the mound seems impossible. If he just chose one, he might be Pedro Martinez or Mickey Mantle. He’s a 10-tool player. 

The only thing that could hold Ohtani back from hitting 500 home runs is his pitching. That will put him up for more injuries, and it will force him to need more off days than a normal designated hitter. However, he is well on his way to hitting the milestone. Right now, Ohtani has 283 home runs. 

Ohtani is averaging one home run for every 15 at-bats. Let’s say he averages 500 at-bats for the next few years, and he’s going to make the 500 home run club in seven seasons. If he continues to have over 600 at-bats like he’s had in the past two seasons, he should make the club in around five years. Either way, barring some serious injury issues, Ohtani should easily make the club before it’s all said and done, further cementing his legacy as one of the best of all time. 

6. Juan Soto
Current Home Run Total: 245

Juan Soto’s contract with the New York Mets puts a target on him, but he will continue to get his statistics. It’s also been more than a year since he signed the mega deal worth $765 million over 15 years. He has a long career ahead of him, and he’s already at 245 home runs. He’s in year two of that insane deal. What can Soto do with the Mets for the next 14 years? Well, we’re hoping he can hit 255 home runs, at least. 

The Mets are expected to remain one of the top teams in the league, and that will protect Soto. He doesn’t have to worry about getting the Mike Trout treatment since he’s on the Mets. They have a decent lineup, even if they inexplicably let Pete Alonso go in free agency this offseason. 

The real X factor is the time that’s gone by since his contract was signed. With the Dodgers basically signing everyone under the sun besides Soto, this allows fans to find another enemy. Even Yankees fans seem to have gotten over Soto’s move across the city. He can finally settle in and hit dingers. He’s currently 25th on the active home runs list, but he’s the only one who is still in their 20s. 

7. Julio Rodriguez
Current Home Run Total: 112

This is the first one where we’re truly projecting an entire career before we have the data to back it up. Julio Rodriguez has just 112 home runs at 25 years old. Simple math says he’s going to hit around 450 home runs if everything goes right, but we’re projecting some increased power numbers now that he’s in his prime. He hasn’t had more than 32 home runs in a season yet, but if he has just three seasons with 40-45 home runs, then he’ll be back on track towards the 500 Home Run Club.

As of this writing, Rodriguez is having a terrible start to the season, with a .152 slugging percentage as he struggles to make an impact for the Seattle Mariners. It’s way too early to panic, and he should get his numbers up in no time. 

One interesting note about Rodriguez is that he’s had much better power numbers on the road than he’s had at home. He’s hit 66 home runs away from Safeco Field and just 46 in Seattle. He’s played around the same number of games at home and away. If Rodriguez plays for another team at any point in his career, his numbers might explode. He’s on pace on the road to hit 32 home runs per season. At that pace, he would only need 16 seasons to hit 500. 

8. Bobby Witt Jr.
Current Home Run Totals: 105

At one point, Bobby Witt Jr. seemed like the next big thing in baseball. He was incredible in 2024. He fell off slightly last season, but he’s still well on his way to superstar status. His home run totals went from 32 to 23 last season. That’s super concerning, and it’s a reason why we should be skeptical of Witt’s placement on this list. He’s the one we’re most concerned about, but we see big things from him in his future. 

The Kansas City Royals might not be the World Series contender they seemed to be two years ago, but they still have a decent lineup. Teams can’t just pitch around Witt. And he’s a speedster, probably the only player outside Ohtani who has a chance to hit the 50-50 club. Witt already has seven steals in 11 games this season, but he has zero home runs.

While he hasn’t come close, there is more power to be had with Witt. He should be a future 40 home run guy, at least for one season. He should consistently hit 30 home runs for the rest of his career, barring any injuries. If he stays on course, he should be a great player well into his 30s, and he should have a few pops in there, including a year with 50 home runs. Or, he could come up incredibly short. Anything is possible with Witt.

9. Junior Caminero
Current Home Run Total: 54

Junior Caminero came out of nowhere last year to become one of the best power hitters in the game. He hit 45 home runs for the Tampa Bay Rays. He did this at just 21 years old. This type of power in a hitter so young can only mean great things are to come. Even if his power numbers come back to earth, a 35-home-run player will easily hit the 500 Home Run Club eventually. 

Caminero is a projection at best, but at least we’ve seen it once. He clearly has insane power. He was projected as one of the best prospects in baseball, so his success isn’t surprising, but being this good this fast definitely is. In AA, he hit 20 home runs in 81 games, but that was the best he’s done.

There are some questions around Caminero’s future. Really, it’s only because he plays for the Rays. We don’t know what the new stadium on the Tampa side of the bay will look like, and we don’t know if new ownership will act like old ownership and trade every player who needs to get paid remotely what they are worth. If he spends his whole career in Tampa, he might struggle at some point, but this hasn't hurt him thus far.

10. Roman Anthony
Current Home Run Total: 9

Roman Anthony, unlike Junior Caminero, hasn’t shown the power that we expected from him as a prospect, but we really believe in the talent. He should be able to be a 40-homer player in time. Right now, he has fewer than 10 career home runs. It’s not like he just got here. He’s had 300 at-bats, but we think there’s more than meets the eye.

This slow start will just be part of the narrative. If he hits 30 home runs this year, which seems to be the goal, then it’s the first step towards making the 500 Home Run Club. He put one muscle in the offseason, and he’s looking to make a step forward as a star. The Red Sox are struggling mightily to open the 2026 season, but Anthony has been alright. He even made Team USA at the World Baseball Classic based on his talent alone.

Eventually, one would hope that a bet on talent is money well spent. We’re betting on the talent here. His minor league home run totals do leave something to be desired. This might seem like a crazy declaration, but we just believe there’s something there, and when predicting a player who isn’t old enough to rent a car on his own, one must open themselves up to criticism, so we leave you with that. 

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