The Chicago Cubs eked out the 3-1 victory over the San Diego Padres on Thursday night to clinch a spot in the NLDS. Their reward? A showdown with the top-seeded Milwaukee Brewers, a familiar division foe with lots of intertwined history. Especially for Craig Counsell, who up until last season was Milwaukee's manager and a sworn rival of these very same Cubs.
To their credit, Milwaukee has largely gotten the better of Chicago since Counsell's departure — both head-to-head and in the standings. There's a reason the Brewers are the No. 1 seed and coming off a buy with fresh arms and, hopefully, well-rested bats. Milwaukee will probably be the odds-on favorite to win this series. All the numbers point to the Brewers being the real deal.
Of course, we know Milwaukee's recent postseason history is a bit more complicated. This group executes at an extremely high level and persevered through a lot in the regular season, but in terms of top-end talent, the Cubs roster takes the cake seven days a week. There's no Kyle Tucker or Pete Crow-Armstrong or even a Nico Hoerner in the Brewers lineup.
This will be a real test for the Brewers. A loss basically affirms years of mounting skepticism that a small-market club with a slim payroll and zero established stars can make noise in October. A series victory, however, gives Milwaukee fans endless ammo in their crusade against Counsell and a genuine sense of righteousness.
Here is how Counsell can exploit Milwaukee's weaknesses, subdue his former team and send Brewers fans into a spiral of despair.
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Milwaukee's lineup is deep — but Chicago has the star power
The Brewers' surprising ascent to the No. 1 seed in the National League was a collective effort. This team has very few true points of weakness. That said, while the lineup is broadly solid, there isn't a ton of natural slugging. The Brewers get on base and pass the baton extremely well, but the postseason so often boils down to pitching duels where a single mistake pitch, a single crack of the bat, can make all the difference. That template generally favors Chicago.
Milwaukee owns the second-highest team batting average in MLB this season (.258), but the Brewers are 22nd in home runs (Cubs are sixth) and 12th in slugging (Cubs are, again, sixth). Michael Busch, Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong — these are players who can ratchet up the power and change the calculus of a game with a single swing.
It's not like the Brewers can't stumble into the occasional power streak, but Christian Yelich, Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang and Milwaukee's core pieces tend to operate at a lower register. That is fine for the regular season, but it gets tough when Chicago is pulling out all the stops with its bullpen maneuvers (a particular strength of Counsell, which Brewers fans know well) and when each pitcher is bringing his best stuff to the table.
The Cubs can heat up much quicker than Milwaukee and punish a wonky inning far more emphatically. The Brewers will attempt to play their game and bend the series to their style, but that easier said than done. If Chicago's pitchers can perform like they did in this Padres series, the Brewers just don't have a Fernando Tatis Jr. or Manny Machado waiting around to knock starters out of the game and compromise top relievers.
Brewers need to get healthy on the pitching front
Milwaukee still has not provided a clear update on Brandon Woodruff's status for the NLDS, which we can probably read as "he won't be ready." The Brewers are going to take it slow. That knocks out arguably their second-best pitcher in a rotation that is already critically thin. José Quintana is also dealing with an injury, so the Brewers could be without two of their most experienced, proven arms.
Freddy Peralta is a great option for Game 1, and the best pitcher in this series, but what happens in Game 2? Game 3? Game 4? Milwaukee is going to end up placing a lot of faith in young Quinn Priester and Jacob Misiorowski, neither of whom have pitched meaningful innings in October. The Miz, on the surface, seems like a perfect No. 2 — an All-Star with electric strikeout material — but the actual numbers paint a different picture.
It was tough sledding after the All-Star break as the league figured him out and his command wavered. That's not to say Misiorowski can't crank it up for five innings in a high-pressure situation, but it seems more likely that he might crumble early and leave the Brewers to wring out their entire bullpen in a do-or-die situation.
Counsell has his own concerns with the Cubs pitching staff, but Shōta Imanaga, Matthew Boyd and Jameson Taillon feel solid enough. Boyd was brilliant in Game 1; Taillon delivered in Game 3. Imanaga was less successful in Chicago's Game 2 loss, but he won't have the specter of Manny Machado hanging over him when pitching in Milwaukee.
Milwaukee's bullpen probably takes the cake compared to Chicago's bullpen, but Counsell knows how to pull the strings when it comes to mixing and matching bullpen arms. Also: Trevor Megill is coming back from injury and might not be fully up to speed, which potentially leaves Milwaukee compromised in high-leverage spots.