While a few impactful free agents remain unsigned, the fact that pitchers and catchers have reported suggests that the MLB offseason is just about over. Spring Training games are just a week away from getting going, and untimely injuries have already come up; truly, baseball season has arrived.
But it's not time to close the book on the winter just yet. They say that those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it, and that applies to MLB front offices as much as anybody. So let's look back at the offseason that was and see what it taught us about where the game is heading — and who's at risk of getting left behind.
One tool won't get players very far in free agency
Perhaps the most surprising outcome of this offseason's free agency class was that Eugenio Suarez had to settle for a one-year, $15 million deal with the Cincinnati Reds. How exactly did Suarez, a player who hit 49 home runs and drove in 118 runs (both in the top five of the Majors), have to settle for a one-year deal worth just $500,000 more in AAV than Ryan O'Hearn? Heck, Kyle Schwarber got a five-year, $150 million deal as a DH after hitting just seven more home runs than Suarez. The answer has to do with everything else Suarez does, or should I say doesn't do.
Suarez hits a ton of home runs, but he hit .228 and posted a .298 OBP. He got on base less than 30 percent of the time, and he's struck out more than anybody in the sport since 2019. He used to be a decent defender at third base, but he ranked in the ninth percentile with -6 OAA in 2025, making him one of the worst regular defenders at the position. To sum up, Suarez will almost certainly hit 30+ home runs, but he doesn't get on base, doesn't make much contact, doesn't play good defense and doesn't run well.
O'Hearn is a quality defender at first base, and while he doesn't have Suarez's power, he hit .281 with a .366 OBP last season. He's a more well-rounded hitter than Suarez. As for Schwarber, the power numbers are virtually identical, but he got on base at a 36.5 percent clip in 2025. He doesn't defend and has a lot of the same weaknesses as Suarez does, but his on-base ability stands out. Schwarber has one of the best eyes in the sport, while Suarez has lackluster plate discipline. Both O'Hearn and Schwarber have more than one tool to fall back on, and that's why they saw stronger markets.
Eugenio Suarez wasn't the only one-tool player penalized this offseason
Luis Arraez is another clear example of one-tool players not being nearly as valuable on the open market as they previously might have been. Arraez is one of the best contact hitters of this generation: He's won three batting titles in the last five years and just led the National League with 181 hits in 2025. To put into perspective how absurd his contact skills are, he struck out just 21 times in 675 plate appearances, a stunning 3.1 percent clip. But he signed a one-year, $12 million deal with the San Francisco Giants this winter, and even that felt like an overpay.
Despite leading the league in hits and posting a rock-solid .292 batting average in 2025, Arraez had a 99 OPS+, making him a below-average hitter. This is due to his lack of power: Arraez hit just eight home runs in 2025 and has never hit more than 10 in a single season. He makes a ton of contact, but rarely ever hits the ball hard. This might not matter much if he got on base at an absurd clip, but Arraez's on-base percentage was just .327, an unimpressive number especially considering his high batting average.
He doesn't offer any value away from the plate, either. Arraez was one of the worst defenders in the league at first base and ranked in the 25th percentile in sprint speed. He's one of the most gifted contact artists in the sport, but that only goes so far on the open market nowadays when he provides little power, doesn't get on base much, doesn't play good defense and doesn't run well.
To get paid, you must be good at more than one thing. MLB teams simply aren't taking the risk otherwise.
The qualifying offer can still be very harmful
This offseason saw an unprecedented four players accept the qualifying offer. There's a good chance that had he gotten a do-over, Zac Gallen would've been the fifth to do so. The reason for that has to do with the harm that rejecting the qualifying offer can cause.
Now, for most, the qualifying offer is a non-issue. Teams have no issue parting with draft picks and, in some cases, international bonus pool money to sign elite free agents like Kyle Tucker, Dylan Cease and Bo Bichette. When talking about free agents like Trent Grisham, Shota Imanaga, Gleyber Torres and Brandon Woodruff, though, would you want your team handing over a good amount of money in addition to the QO penalties? Probably not. Those players accepted the qualifying offer to avoid sitting out free agency all winter just to settle for a short-term deal anyway. Gallen will eventually have to do the same, barring a miracle.
Teams might be fine taking a chance on Gallen having a bounce-back season, but how many teams want to part with the money Gallen wants plus all of the QO penalties? If this were Gallen from a couple of years ago, sure, but he's coming off his worst season by far. His ERA sat just below 5.00, and his advanced metrics were not good.
The qualifying offer hurts the worst players who receive one. Accepting the penalties is easy to do with the upper-echelon free agents, but harder to do with Gallen, who remains a free agent a week before Spring Training games begin.
ERA doesn't matter as much as you'd think
When evaluating pitchers, MLB fans often look to ERA before anything, and understandably so: ERA measures runs allowed per nine innings, so why not pay attention to that first and foremost? But what's become clear this winter is that MLB teams are not prioritizing signing pitchers with low ERAs.
Dylan Cease, the highest-paid pitcher in this offseason's class by far, had a 4.55 ERA in 2025 and has had a 4.50 ERA or higher in two of the last three years. He got his seven-year, $210 million deal from the Toronto Blue Jays for other reasons: For example, Cease led the league in K/9 in 2025, and he's done so twice in the last five years. He has some of the best strikeout stuff in the game, giving him immense upside. We've seen this with his two top-four finishes in the Cy Young balloting in the last four years.
Additionally, Cease posts. He's made at least 32 starts in each of the last five seasons, and has thrown at least 165 innings while striking out 210+ batters in each of those years as well. He doesn't always eat a ton of innings and can lose control of the strike zone at times, but how many pitchers have legitimate Cy Young upside and take the ball every fifth day as consistently as Cease? Missing bats and staying healthy are far more reliable predictors of future success than ERA, which is susceptible to everything from team context (and defense) to bad luck.
Devin Williams is further proof that ERA isn't as important as it used to be
Devin Williams is another guy who got paid handsomely this offseason. Williams, a reliever, received a three-year, $51 million deal with the New York Mets after what was, according to ERA, a down year. But a deeper dive would show that 2025 wasn't nearly as bad as most think.
Devin Williams Statistic | 2025 | 2019-2024 |
|---|---|---|
ERA | 4.79 | 1.83 |
FIP | 2.68 | 2.39 |
WHIP | 1.129 | 1.023 |
BB/9 | 3.6 | 4.3 |
K/9 | 13.1 | 14.3 |
Now, Williams certainly wasn't as dominant in 2025 as he had been in previous years, but he was a lot closer to his usual self than a 4.79 ERA pitcher. If it weren't for an inflated BABIP, who knows how low Williams' ERA would've been?
Williams receiving the contract he did would've been deemed an underpay before 2025. Every metric other than ERA suggests Williams was his typical self. There's a reason why he and Cease got the deals they did despite higher ERAs, and others with lower ERAs did not get nearly as much money.
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