MLB’s $22 million question: Tracking every qualifying offer and every mistake

The first big test of the baseball offseason is upon us.
Division Series - Toronto Blue Jays v New York Yankees - Game Three
Division Series - Toronto Blue Jays v New York Yankees - Game Three | Al Bello/GettyImages

We're just a week removed from an all-time classic of a World Series, but the MLB offseason waits for no fan or front office. Already, the wheels have begun to turn, as teams and players have spent the past few days making decisions on whether or not to pick up contract options. And now, the first big deadline of the winter is upon us: Welcome to qualifying offer day.

Wait, qualifying offer? What the heck is that? It might seem esoteric, but it's a crucial part of free agency — and don't worry, we've got you covered. Below, you'll find a full explanation of just how this works, which teams it might apply to this year and what it means for their teams moving forward. Plus, we're also keeping track of all the biggest names eligible for the QO this winter. Let's dive in.

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What is a qualifying offer?

The qualifying offer is a one-year contract that each team can extend to any of its eligible free agents. It was devised as a way to grant some protection for teams — particularly smaller-market teams — as they lose players on the open market. Any player offered the QO can accept it and return to their previous team for one more season. If they decline, they officially become a free agent, while their previous team receives extra picks in the next MLB Draft as compensation.

There are two circumstances that affect eligibility: 1) if you're coming off a season in which you changed teams midseason (think deadline acquisitions like Josh Naylor or Merrill Kelly) and 2) if you've already been offered the QO previously. If either of those conditions apply, that you can't be extended a quailfying offer this offseason. This winter, some big names fall under this umbrella, including Pete Alonso, Cody Bellinger and Alex Bregman.

What is this year's qualifying offer worth?

The qualifying offer is always fixed at the mean salary of the league’s 125 highest-paid players from thie previous season. For the 2026 season, that number is $22.025 million. Which means that teams weighing their QO decisions have to make a choice: Would I want this player back on a one-year deal at just over $22 million deal, or is that more than I'd be willing to pay for their expected production? If the player in question would be worth at least that much on the open market, extending the qualifying offer is likely a good call — either they re-sign at a reasonable number, or you avoid losing them for nothing in free agency.

Qualifying offer timeline and key dates

Each year, teams have until five days after the final game of the World Series to extend players the qualifying offer. This season, that date falls on Thursday, Nov. 6. Players will then have until Nov. 18 to decide whether they're going to accept or reject the QO.

  • Deadline to extend offers: 5 p.m. ET Thursday, Nov. 6
  • Deadline for players to accept or decline: Nov. 18

How does the draft compensation system work?

The short answer is it depends, both on how rich the team is and on how much that player goes on to sign for in free agency. Any team whose payroll crossed the Competitive Balance Tax threshold in 2025 will receive a pick that falls right after the fourth round of the draft, no matter the value of the player's contract. (For example: The Atlanta Braves received pick No. 136 after losing Max Fried to the New York Yankees.)

If the team received revenue sharing, there are two options. If that team's player rejects the QO and then goes on to sign a contract in free agency worth at least $50 million, they'll receive a pick that falls between the first round and the first Competitive Balance Round (e.g., the D-backs last year after losing Christian Walker to the Houston Astros). If the player signs a contract in free agency worth less than $50 million, the pick comes after the second Competitive Balance Round.

If the team in question is neither a revenue-sharing recipient nor in the luxury tax, the value of the player's eventual contract doesn't matter; the pick will come after the second Competitive Balance Round (e.g., the Boston Red Sox last year after losing Nick Pivetta to the San Diego Padres).

Of course, there's a flip side to this equation as well: Any team that signs a player who has rejected the qualifying offer will lose one or more draft picks. Just which pick once again depends on the financial status of the team and the value of the contract (although each team's highest first-round pick is exempt).

If the team in question is in the luxury tax, they'll lose their second- and fifth-highest selections in next year's draft, plus $1 million of international bonus pool money. If they sign a second free agent who's rejected the QO, they'll lose their third- and sixth-highest picks as well. (In the 2025 MLB Draft, eight teams forfeited their second-round picks after signing free agents who had rejected qualifying offers.)

If the team in question receives revenue-sharing money, they lose their third-highest selection (the A's, for example, coughed up their third-round pick this year after signing Luis Severino). IF the team falls into neither category, they lose their second-highest pick, plus $500,000 of international bonus pool money.

Which free agents have received a qualifying offer? Tracking the biggest names

While stars like Alonso, Bregman and Bellinger aren't eligible to be offered the QO, most of the biggest free agents available this winter are — a list that includes both the top hitter (Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker) and the top pitcher (Padres righty Dylan Cease) on the market. Players of that stature will almost certainly be offered the QO and will almost certainly decline; they know they'll get much more than that in free agency, and their former teams want to make sure that they at least get some draft compensation if they move on.

Not every case is so easy, though. Which players will receive the qualifying offer by 5 p.m. ET on Thursday evening, and which ones won't? And, just as importantly, which players are liable to accept the QO if they get it? We'll be keeping track of all the most notable names below up to Thursday's deadline, as well as whether they decide to accept or reject in the days that follow, so be sure to check back often.

Player

Team

Offered QO?

Accepted QO?

1B/DH Luis Arraez

San Diego Padres

TBD

TBD

SS Bo Bichette

Toronto Blue Jays

Yes

TBD

RHP Dylan Cease

San Diego Padres

TBD

TBD

RHP Edwin Diaz

New York Mets

TBD

TBD

RHP Zach Eflin

Baltimore Orioles

TBD

TBD

RHP Zac Gallen

Arizona Diamondbacks

TBD

TBD

RHP Lucas Giolito

Boston Red Sox

TBD

TBD

OF Trent Grisham

New York Yankees

TBD

TBD

LHP Shota Imanaga

Chicago Cubs

TBD

TBD

RHP Michael King

San Diego Padres

TBD

TBD

INF Jorge Polanco

Seattle Mariners

TBD

TBD

DH Kyle Schwarber

Philadelphia Phillies

TBD

TBD

LHP Ranger Suarez

Philadelphia Phillies

TBD

TBD

RHP Robert Suarez

San Diego Padres

TBD

TBD

2B Gleyber Torres

Detroit Tigers

TBD

TBD

OF Kyle Tucker

Chicago Cubs

TBD

TBD

LHP Framber Valdez

Houston Astros

TBD

TBD

RHP Devin Williams

New York Yankees

TBD

TBD

RHP Brandon Woodruff

Milwaukee Brewers

TBD

TBD

The no-brainers

SS Bo Bichette

Bichette became the first player reported to have been offered the QO on Thursday afternoon, which should come as no surprise. The sweet-swinging infielder is expected to command a massive contract in free agency, one that could push north of $200 million based on his excellent offensive production and the relative dearth of infield. The Toronto Blue Jays would have been crazy not to extend him the qualifying offer, and he'd be equally crazy not to reject it in order to hit the open market. Then the question becomes whether a reunion will be in the cards.

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