MLB’s $22 million question: Tracking every qualifying offer and every mistake

We're just a week removed from an all-time classic of a World Series, but the MLB offseason waits for no fan or front office. Already, the wheels have begun to turn, as teams and players have spent the past few days making decisions on whether or not to pick up contract options. And now, the first big deadline of the winter is upon us: Welcome to qualifying offer day.

Wait, qualifying offer? What the heck is that? It might seem esoteric, but it's a crucial part of free agency — and don't worry, we've got you covered. Below, you'll find a full explanation of just how this works, which teams it might apply to this year and what it means for their teams moving forward. Plus, we're also keeping track of all the biggest names eligible for the QO this winter. Let's dive in.

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What is a qualifying offer?

The qualifying offer is a one-year contract that each team can extend to any of its eligible free agents. It was devised as a way to grant some protection for teams — particularly smaller-market teams — as they lose players on the open market. Any player offered the QO can accept it and return to their previous team for one more season. If they decline, they officially become a free agent, while their previous team receives extra picks in the next MLB Draft as compensation.

There are two circumstances that affect eligibility: 1) if you're coming off a season in which you changed teams midseason (think deadline acquisitions like Josh Naylor or Merrill Kelly) and 2) if you've already been offered the QO previously. If either of those conditions apply, that you can't be extended a quailfying offer this offseason. This winter, some big names fall under this umbrella, including Pete Alonso, Cody Bellinger and Alex Bregman.

What is this year's qualifying offer worth?

The qualifying offer is always fixed at the mean salary of the league’s 125 highest-paid players from thie previous season. For the 2026 season, that number is $22.025 million. Which means that teams weighing their QO decisions have to make a choice: Would I want this player back on a one-year deal at just over $22 million deal, or is that more than I'd be willing to pay for their expected production? If the player in question would be worth at least that much on the open market, extending the qualifying offer is likely a good call — either they re-sign at a reasonable number, or you avoid losing them for nothing in free agency.

Qualifying offer timeline and key dates

Each year, teams have until five days after the final game of the World Series to extend players the qualifying offer. This season, that date falls on Thursday, Nov. 6. Players will then have until Nov. 18 to decide whether they're going to accept or reject the QO.

• Deadline to extend offers: 5 p.m. ET Thursday, Nov. 6
• Deadline for players to accept or decline: Nov. 18

How does the draft compensation system work?

The short answer is it depends, both on how rich the team is and on how much that player goes on to sign for in free agency. Any team whose payroll crossed the Competitive Balance Tax threshold in 2025 will receive a pick that falls right after the fourth round of the draft, no matter the value of the player's contract. (For example: The Atlanta Braves received pick No. 136 after losing Max Fried to the New York Yankees.)

If the team received revenue sharing, there are two options. If that team's player rejects the QO and then goes on to sign a contract in free agency worth at least $50 million, they'll receive a pick that falls between the first round and the first Competitive Balance Round (e.g., the D-backs last year after losing Christian Walker to the Houston Astros). If the player signs a contract in free agency worth less than $50 million, the pick comes after the second Competitive Balance Round.

If the team in question is neither a revenue-sharing recipient nor in the luxury tax, the value of the player's eventual contract doesn't matter; the pick will come after the second Competitive Balance Round (e.g., the Boston Red Sox last year after losing Nick Pivetta to the San Diego Padres).

Of course, there's a flip side to this equation as well: Any team that signs a player who has rejected the qualifying offer will lose one or more draft picks. Just which pick once again depends on the financial status of the team and the value of the contract (although each team's highest first-round pick is exempt).

If the team in question is in the luxury tax, they'll lose their second- and fifth-highest selections in next year's draft, plus $1 million of international bonus pool money. If they sign a second free agent who's rejected the QO, they'll lose their third- and sixth-highest picks as well. (In the 2025 MLB Draft, eight teams forfeited their second-round picks after signing free agents who had rejected qualifying offers.)

If the team in question receives revenue-sharing money, they lose their third-highest selection (the A's, for example, coughed up their third-round pick this year after signing Luis Severino). IF the team falls into neither category, they lose their second-highest pick, plus $500,000 of international bonus pool money.

Which free agents have received a qualifying offer? Tracking the biggest names

While stars like Alonso, Bregman and Bellinger aren't eligible to be offered the QO, most of the biggest free agents available this winter are — a list that includes both the top hitter (Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker) and the top pitcher (Padres righty Dylan Cease) on the market. Players of that stature will almost certainly be offered the QO and will almost certainly decline; they know they'll get much more than that in free agency, and their former teams want to make sure that they at least get some draft compensation if they move on.

Not every case is so easy, though. Which players will receive the qualifying offer by 5 p.m. ET on Thursday evening, and which ones won't? And, just as importantly, which players are liable to accept the QO if they get it? We'll be keeping track of all the most notable names below up to Thursday's deadline, as well as whether they decide to accept or reject in the days that follow, so be sure to check back often.

The no-brainers

SS Bo Bichette

Bichette became the first player reported to have been offered the QO on Thursday afternoon, which should come as no surprise. The sweet-swinging infielder is expected to command a massive contract in free agency, one that could push north of $200 million based on his excellent offensive production and the relative dearth of infield. The Toronto Blue Jays would have been crazy not to extend him the qualifying offer, and he'd be equally crazy not to reject it in order to hit the open market. Then the question becomes whether a reunion will be in the cards.

OF Kyle Tucker

Given that Tucker is looking to make a run at a $400 million contract this winter, it's safe to say the Cubs didn't blink twice about offering him one year at $22 million. He'll decline, and Chicago will likely take the draft pick and move on — much to fans' dismay.

DH Kyle Schwarber

Sure, Schwarber will be 33 next season and is a DH only. But all he does is hit nukes, and his age might keep any potential contract shorter in length — and keep more suitors in the hunt. Every contender could use his bat, and he'll have a robust market that will blow the QO out of the water. Philly is wise to make sure they'll at least get something in return if he leaves, though they'd no doubt love a reunion.

LHP Framber Valdez

As arguably the top pitcher available this winter, Valdez is in line for a big-time payday that will stretch well into the nine-figure range. There was no universe in which the Astros weren't extending him to QO, and no universe in which he doesn't turn it down.

RHP Dylan Cease

Rinse and repeat the above. Cease is coming off a down 2025 season in which his command problems popped back up in a major way, but he still misses bats as well as just about anybody and he's still one of the game's most durable arms. That combination will get him paid well beyond the QO, and San Diego was right to take the pick.

RHP Edwin Diaz

There are plenty of decent relievers on the market this winter, but none of them can touch Diaz, who put up a 1.63 ERA and 98 strikeouts in 66.1 innings. He's the most bankable reliever in baseball right now, and he could well crack $20 million over a multi-year deal this winter.

LHP Ranger Suarez

It seems like everyone's forgetting about Suarez in this class, but he's almost two years younger than Valdez and has been lights out over the past two years. It's not the lengthiest track record of starting production, but with the demand for pitching still sky-high, he'll cash in.

RHP Michael King

If you thought that King's injury-plagued 2025 season might keep his market in check, well, think again. Yes, he only switched to pitching full-time toward the end of the 2023 campaign, and yes, he has just one elite season under his belt. When he's healthy, though, he's among the very best pitchers in the sport, and some team is going to take the leap given how relatively few game-changing options there are out there. He could come close to $22 million a year over a multi-year deal, and there's hardly any chance he accepts the QO.

The toss-ups

RHP Zac Gallen

If you wanted to put him in the no-brainer category, I wouldn't complain too much; he finished top-five in NL Cy Young voting in both 2022 and 2023, after all. But his rocky 2025 was rocky enough for me to include him here, even if I'd be very surprised if he actually accepted the QO. He's still just 30 years old, he stayed healthy this year and again, there's just so much demand for a pitcher of Gallen's stature. He should still get a healthy multi-year deal that renders the qualifying offer irrelevant.

LHP Shota Imanaga

This one is fascinating. No one even expected Imanaga to become a free agent, but the Cubs declined their three-year, $57 million option earlier this week to set him loose. Chicago might be in the rare position of actually hoping Imanaga accepts the QO: They need the rotation help, and while Imanaga's shaky end to the 2025 season was enough to give them pause about a longer commitment, a reunion could make sense for both sides as the lefty looks to rebuild his value. Maybe they could've gotten him for cheaper, but with the red-hot pitching market, I understand why they wanted to cover their bases and leave the door open.

OF Trent Grisham

Grisham's maybe the trickiest free agent on the market this winter, coming off a career year that teams may try to poke holes in given how badly he struggled previously at the plate. The Yankees need not just one but multiple outfielders, and the QO would allow them to bring back Grisham for 2025 without a longer-term deal they could live to regret. The question is whether he's confident enough in his market to turn it down and roll the dice, but my guess is no.

RHP Brandon Woodruff

$22 million for one season of a pitcher isn't very Brewers-like, but good on Milwaukee for trying to keep Woodruff around. The health concerns are obvious, and popped up again in 2025, but when healthy he's still a darn good starter that the Brew Crew could really use. Letting him walk would've meant finding a replacement on the open market, and I don't blame Milwaukee for hoping to keep him around for 2026. And hey, he might want a one-year deal to rebuild his market and try to put injury questions behind him.

The head-scratchers

2B Gleyber Torres

Torres was probably the biggest surprise of qualifying offer day. I get the argument Detroit is making here: There are very few starting-caliber middle infielders on the market this winter, and while Torres wouldn't sniff $22 million a year on a multi-year contract, paying him that number for a single season is totally fine compared to the alternative. That said, Scott Harris has kept the finances pretty tight, and paying a premium for a good but certainly not great player might hamstring what they do elsewhere this offseason.

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