The World Series only ended a couple of days ago, but the MLB calendar never really stops moving. The offseason has already begun with players and teams accepting and rejecting options, and the deadline for all 30 clubs to extend qualifying offers is just days away.
The qualifying offer is essentially a one-year deal that a team can extend to a pending free agent at a value that changes every year (it's $22.05 million this offseason). Those who accept it will play the 2026 season at that salary. Those who reject it will enter free agency, but if they sign with a new team, the team that signs them has to forfeit a draft pick and, in some cases, international bonus money as well.
It's important to point out that not every upcoming free agent can receive the qualifying offer. Those who have received it before (Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, etc.) and those who were traded midseason (Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suarez, etc.) are ineligible.
Most of those who will receive the qualifying offer will reject it — spoiler alert, Kyle Tucker isn't signing a one-year, $22.05 million deal — but there are four tricky cases in particular. It can be debated whether these four players should receive the qualifying offer and whether they should accept it.
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OF Trent Grisham, New York Yankees
Trent Grisham had a career year in 2025, seemingly out of nowhere, doubling his previous career high with 34 home runs and posting a career-best .811 OPS. He hit a slew of clutch home runs and was the New York Yankees' leadoff hitter for much of the season. Grisham played like a player worth more than a one-year deal, but there are some questions worth asking.
Can this offensive production be replicated? This isn't a Yankee Stadium question (he actually hit 21 home runs on the road compared to 13 at home, with an OPS 200 points higher away from the Bronx), but it's hard to believe that what Grisham did is sustainable knowing he had never hit more than 17 home runs in a single season previously. Can he be trusted to play center field? Grisham is known more for his glove than his bat and even has two Gold Gloves to show for it, but he posted two outs above average and -11 defensive runs saved. He was not a very good defender, and his metrics have only regressed the last couple of years.
The Yankees need to decide whether Grisham is worth $22 million if he accepts the offer, and Grisham needs to decide whether he can get a multi-year deal lucrative enough to pass on this offer if he were to receive it.
Prediction: Receives and accepts qualifying offer
I have the Yankees giving Grisham the offer mostly because I don't know who else they turn to. Sure, Grisham has his question marks, but who replaces him? Jasson Dominguez? Spencer Jones? They could maybe re-sign Cody Bellinger, but is giving him a lucrative five- or six-year deal really better than giving Grisham an inflated one-year contract? I have Grisham accepting the deal because the Yankees give him a great opportunity to repeat his breakout year, and I'm not sold there will be a big multi-year offer for him on the open market.
RHP Lucas Giolito, Boston Red Sox
Fresh off Tommy John Surgery, Lucas Giolito was an integral member of the Boston Red Sox's rotation during the 2025 campaign, posting a 3.41 ERA in 26 starts and 145 innings of work. But a look beyond his ERA suggests 2025 wasn't quite as impressive as it appears: Giolito had a 4.17 FIP, a 5.01 xERA and a 19.7 percent strikeout rate, his lowest mark since 2018.
Perhaps an even bigger concern is that Giolito ended his season on the Injured List with an arm injury. He won't need Tommy John surgery, but another issue a year after missing an entire season due to a major arm injury makes Giolito an even bigger risk beyond the obvious signs of possible regression.
The Red Sox need to decide whether Giolito is worth making $22 million despite the red flags, and Giolito needs to decide whether he thinks he can get a multi-year deal knowing how expensive starting pitching has become.
Prediction: Receives and rejects qualifying offer
The concerns above are valid, but it's worth pointing out that Giolito rejected his end of a $19 million mutual option. If he thinks he's worth more than $19 million, chances are, he'd assume he's worth more than $22.05 million on a one-year deal. Giolito rejecting that offer would give the Red Sox a compensation pick. Giolito accepting the deal means he'd be back for one more year. I question whether he's worth $22.05 million, but it's only a one-year deal, and the price for starting pitching is astronomically high.
RHP Robert Suarez, San Diego Padres
It's pretty rare for a reliever to receive the qualifying offer, but the San Diego Padres have an interesting decision to make with Robert Suarez, their closer. Suarez has become one of the best relievers in the National League in recent years, and actually leads the majors with 76 saves while posting a sub-3.00 ERA since the start of 2024.
Losing him for nothing would sting for the Padres, but it's not as if this bullpen lacks talent without him. They'd still have Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, Jeremiah Estrada and eventually Jason Adam to lean on in relief. Suarez is also going to be entering his age-35 season.
The Padres need to decide whether they can afford to pay a reliever over $20 million in 2026 when they already have to revamp much of their rotation, and Suarez has to decide whether he can get a lucrative multi-year deal. Considering his age and the volatility of relievers, this is probably his last chance to really cash in.
Prediction: Does not receive qualifying offer
Ultimately, I think the Padres have too many other needs to worry about here. It'd be nice to have Suarez back, but re-signing him is a luxury. They desperately need starters and more power in their lineup. They can ill afford to risk Suarez accepting the offer.
RHP Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers
Brandon Woodruff is a two-time All-Star and was once one of the best starters in the National League, but he has combined to make 23 starts in the last three seasons, 12 of which came in 2025. Injuries have derailed his career, and a lat injury cost him the end of the 2025 campaign.
Injuries are a major concern, but when healthy, Woodruff is darn good. In his 12 starts this season, the big righty posted a 3.20 ERA while posting the highest strikeout rate (32.3 percent) and lowest walk rate (5.4 percent) of his career. There's no reason to believe that, when healthy, he isn't a frontline starter.
The Milwaukee Brewers ultimately have to decide whether they think he's going to stay healthy enough in 2026 for them to pay him a hefty sum, and Woodruff has to decide if he's better off shooting for a multi-year deal knowing that another major injury could end his chances of ever getting one.
Prediction: Does not receive qualifying offer
It's worth noting that Woodruff rejected his end of a $20 million mutual option, which also comes with a $10 million buyout. Giving Woodruff the QO would essentially mean the Brewers would commit to paying him $32 million in 2025. That'd be steep for any team, but for a Brewers team that's as frugal as any, it's very hard to envision them doing that. Woodruff might reject the offer, thus giving the Brewers a pick, but it's too big a risk for Milwaukee to take.