This has been a hugely disappointing season for the Baltimore Orioles. In 2023, it felt like Baltimore might run the American League for years to come. In 2024, Baltimore was still a 90-win team billed as a future powerhouse. Now the O's are 12 games below .500 and riddled with bad vibes.
It's not difficult to understand how we got here. The Orioles' young core has not taken off into the stratosphere like we all expected. Instead, Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo are still a couple years away from peak production, while more established members of Baltimore's core, like Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, have seen their output decline after early peaks.
There is also the Mike Elias of it all. Even with new ownership and theoretically more robust spending power, Elias refused to put forth the necessary sum to re-sign Corbin Burnes in free agency. When the former Cy Young left Baltimore hanging, the O's did not pivot to other frontline aces on the market, instead settling for a 41-year-old stopgap in Charlie Morton.
Baltimore's front office has grossly overestimated its capacity for internal growth and failed, at almost every turn, to keep key pieces out of free agency. Something needs to change, lest Elias' seat become red-hot. Here is how Baltimore can avoid another crippling letdown in 2026.
For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the Discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB season.
Orioles need to sign/trade for OF Luis Robert Jr.
The Orioles' outfield has vastly underperformed expectations this season after losing Anthony Santander. While several prospects, such as Heston Kjerstad and Dylan Beavers, figure to stimulate the O's outfield in the near future, the Cedric Mullins trade leaves a gaping hole in center.
Luis Robert Jr. somehow survived another trade deadline with the Chicago White Sox, but (famous last words) it'd be a bit surprising if he wasn't gone this winter. Chicago has a $20 million club option, which is way too much. The White Sox told interested suitors that it would pick up that option, making him a non-rental, but it's hard to imagine the perennially cash-strapped Sox actually following through on such an overinflated investment.
Whether he's making $20 million and available for trades or he's a free agent, the Orioles should come after Robert with intention. His struggles against right-handed pitching are a huge red flag, but this man was an All-Star on a potential MVP trajectory a couple years ago. Getting him out of South Side purgatory might be the best thing to happen to him at the pro level.
Baltimore can refocus Robert's development while benefitting immediately from his slugging against left-handed pitchers and his excellent defense at a premium position.
Orioles need to sign LHP Ranger Suárez
Baltimore needs durable, productive starting pitchers like a human needs air to breathe. Without it, this team's ceiling is extremely limited. It has been the Orioles' constant bugaboo for years now — the reason this team was never quite able to make the leap in 2023 and 2024, and the reason 2025 has been such a disaster.
The Corbin Burnes trade helped a lot, but the O's let him walk. And even while Burnes was around, depth and dependability around him was a real problem. Health should eventually favor Baltimore a bit more, but Ranger Suárez is on track for four straight years of 20-plus starts. His poise, his quiet confidence, is an attribute that would do this Orioles roster some good.
Suárez is going to receive a healthy long-term contract this winter, so we're verging on pipe dream territory given how Elias historically operates. But again, something has to change. It's time for the Orioles to pony up and join the big-kids table in free agency. Suárez has a 2.94 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 107.0 innings this season, notching 98 strikeouts. The Philadelphia Phillies' southpaw has frontline stuff and tends to perform in October, when the Orioles very much want to be playing baseball next season.
Orioles need to promote 1B/C Samuel Basallo
The Orioles' most consequential move might come internally. We've been underwhelmed by the early outputs of Holliday and Mayo, but Baltimore still has plenty of top prospects ripe for MLB production. None more so than 20-year-old 1B/C Samuel Basallo, Baltimore's No. 1 prospect and No. 8 overall, per MLB Pipeline.
It's hard to guarantee success with players as young as Basallo, but he's tearing through Triple-A right now with a .997 OPS and 23 home runs in 258 at-bats. The hard-hitting lefty will need to prove his utility in the field — Baltimore is sure to deploy Basallo at first base and DH with Rutchsman locked behind home plate — but the bat is undeniable. He's one of the most impactful hitters in the Minor Leagues right now.
He can hit pitches in and out of the zone and draw a ton of walks. Basallo generates consistent hard contact and, as his decision-making in the box improves, he will only add to his impressive home run totals. Baltimore's path to the World Series still runs through its farm system. As Holliday and Mayo get more comfortable at the highest level, Basallo has the talent to kick the O's into overdrive.