Spring training games are on the verge of starting, and the top remaining free agent is right-hander Lucas Giolito. He’s maintained contact with teams, and while there has been consistent dialogue, it just hasn’t led to a contract — yet. Giolito, 31, underwent Tommy John surgery in 2024 and returned to start in 26 games with the Boston Red Sox last season. He amassed a 3.41 ERA and 121 strikeouts in 145 innings. He raised his arm angle seven starts into last season, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported, and after doing so posted a 2.51 ERA in his final 18 starts. And now being another season removed from elbow surgery, there’s reason to believe that Giolito will be even better in 2026.
It's a surprise that Giolito has not yet signed considering the need for starting pitching across baseball. But the right-handers market figures to be active this spring as teams evaluate their internal options and find their need for reinforcements stronger than previously believed. And to add a starter with his pedigree — the No. 16 overall pick in the 2012 MLB Draft — this deep into the offseason would be a coup.
So where might he end up? Here’s three teams to watch for Giolito.
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves are already dealing with injuries to their starting rotation, and there’s a solution staring them right in the face: Giolito.
Part of what gave the Braves pause with pursuing other starting pitchers, such as Zac Gallen, is that they were attached to the qualifying offer. Giolito, meanwhile, is not. The fact he’s stayed on the market this long would seemingly suggest that he’s likely to sign a short-term contract that would allow him to test the market next winter. Which could be the perfect opportunity for Alex Anthopoulos to strike, especially with promising young right-handers Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurton Waldrep sidelined with elbow injuries.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins are not the first team you’d imagine when thinking about Giolito, but they were on Framber Valdez and have shown interest in fortifying their rotation this offseason. Giolito could be a short-term solution that they trade at the deadline for prospects, something that a rebuilding team should strongly consider.
He’d also be tremendous insurance for Pablo Lopez, who is out with an elbow injury that is being further evaluated.
San Diego Padres
The Padres have already signed Griffin Canning, Walker Buehler and German Marquez, but Giolito is in a different category. He adds a potential top-half-of-the-rotation arm to the mix with nine seasons of experience. He would further bolster a rotation that team executive A.J. Preller has set out to improve this winter.
Does Preller have the funds necessary to get a deal done? We’ll see. He was creative in structuring Nick Pivetta’s deal last winter. Who says he can’t do it again? If he does, Giolito would be the cherry on top of an impressive offseason yet again for Preller and Co. despite financial constraints.