4 MLB teams that are much better than their record right now

As the calendar approaches June, it's only natural for fans around the league to start sweating slow starts a bit more seriously — especially if their team entered the year with legitimate championship aspirations. "It's still early!" hits different when you've had a full two months to get your act together.

But the reality is that, well, it still is pretty early. We've got around two-thirds of the season still left to play, and plenty of time for the bad luck and stretches of bad play inherent to baseball to even out. Of course, that doesn't mean that nobody should panic; someone should really try unplugging the Chicago Cubs and plugging them back in. But for these four disappointments in particular, there's reason to believe better days are ahead.

Los Angeles Dodgers

• 2026 record: 35-20
• Run differential: +117

I recognize that this may seem a little bit counterintuitive; the Los Angeles Dodgers are 15 games above .500 right now, with the second-most wins of any team in baseball behind only the Milwaukee Brewers. And yet, despite MLB's best run differential, it still feels like we've yet to see this team get out of second gear.

They've juggled a number of pitching injuries, both to the starting rotation (Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow) and to the bullpen (Edwin Diaz). Mookie Betts and Kyle Tucker have yet to really get it going at the plate. L.A. has also underperformed its expected record by four full games, a sign of just how high the ceiling is here if everything finally clicks into place. Granted, the age and injury risk baked into this roster makes that far from a sure thing. But the talent here remains immense, and there's a chance they've already gotten through the roughest patch of their 2026 season.

Seattle Mariners

• 2026 record: 27-29
• Run differential: +16

The Mariners have a top-10 offense by wRC+, and a rotation that ranks in the top 10 in baseball in ERA, FIP and fWAR. Their run differential, while hardly otherworldly right now, still suggests this should be a solidly winning team. So how, exactly, is Seattle still multiple games below .500 after Memorial Day — with largely the same team that made it all the way to Game 7 of the ALCS last season?

To be clear, it's not all bad luck. The offense, while generally solid, can be a bit top-heavy and struggles mightily against left-handed pitching, and the bullpen has regressed a bit. But a 7-12 record in one-run games (and a 1-4 mark in extra innings) suggests that there's some positive regression to come, and it's hard not to bet on the talent here. Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, Emerson Hancock and Luis Castillo (with Ryan Sloan and Kade Anderson potentially still to come this summer) is a heck of a rotation, and if Cal Raleigh can rebound once he returns from the IL, this lineup should have everything it needs. The underlying numbers paint the picture of a solid team in spite of all this early-season adversity, and I think the best is still to come.

Philadelphia Phillies

• 2026 record: 28-27
• Run differential: -20

Admittedly, this is a bit of a leap of faith. The Phillies looked down and out just a few weeks ago, and they've somehow outperformed their run differential despite a middling record overall. Their high-priced lineup has been on the fritz far too often, and they're one pitching injury away from a total crisis. You could talk yourself into a collapse just as easily as you could a pennant push.

I'm willing to bet on this core one more time, though, at least to be better than a .500 product by the time the year is through. Bryce Harper is proving that reports of his decline were greatly exaggerated, and if Trea Turner can ever start hitting up to his contract, there's still potential in this lineup. (Bryson Stott has quietly been very good in the month of May!) And while there's essentially zero depth behind this starting five, Jesus Luzardo and Aaron Nola have been two of the hardest-luck pitchers in baseball to start this season. It's a bit of a high-wire act, but assuming good health — admittedly a massive if — there's enough talent here to stake their claim below the Brewers, Dodgers and Atlanta Braves in the second tier of NL contenders.

Toronto Blue Jays

• 2026 record: 26-29
• Run differential: -5

Fun fact: On May 27 of last year, the Blue Jays lost to the Texas Rangers to fall to 26-28 on the season, eight games back of first in the AL East. Of course, 2025 is not 2026, and past results are no guarantee of future success. But it's just to say that the baseball season is long and winding, and who you are in late May isn't necessarily who you'll be come August or September — especially when you've been fighting through a downright comical rash of injuries.

I mean, just look at the list of Blue Jays players who are either currently on the IL or have spent time there already this year.

• RHP Dylan Cease (15-day IL, hamstring)
• RHP Shane Bieber (60-day IL, arm)
• RHP Max Scherzer (15-day IL, forearm/ankle)
• RHP Cody Ponce (60-day IL, knee)
• RHP Jose Berrios (60-day IL, Tommy John)
• RHP Yimi Garcia (60-day IL, elbow)
• C Alejandro Kirk (60-day IL, thumb)
• 3B/OF Addison Barger (15-day IL, elbow)
• OF Anthony Santander (60-day IL, shoulder)
• DH George Springer (toe)

That's a whole lot of very important players, and all of them save for Springer remain on the shelf. But the good news is that most of them aren't long term issues; Cease has already resumed throwing, while Bieber's out on a rehab assignment and Garcia and Kirk could join him soon enough. Toronto has been able to at least stay within shouting distance (with a big assist from the dire state of the AL Wild Card race), and if they can ever just get a little healthy, there's still talent here to make a push. The fact that they've been even mediocre given the circumstances is a minor miracle, and speaks to the ceiling here for a team that, lest we forget, was two outs away from winning a title last season.

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