This year's free agency might not feature a Juan Soto or Shohei Ohtani sort of superstar, but there are a slew of impactful players available, particularly when discussing starting pitchers. This logjam of talent on the mound has resulted in arguably the best starter available, Ranger Suarez, going overlooked. Nobody is talking about him, and it's hard to understand why.
In fact, the only recent news involving Suarez is that the Philadelphia Phillies are almost certainly going to let him walk as a free agent. Here's what Matt Gelb of The Athletic had to say about Suarez's free agency:
"No one has said it aloud, but the Phillies have made it clear they do not expect to be bidding on Ranger Suárez, who should score a nine-figure deal this winter. As of now, they are not in the rotation market." Gelb wrote.
The Phillies letting Suarez go does make some sense, given their abundance of starting pitching and their need to add to their bullpen and lineup, but that doesn't change the fact that where he decides to sign could end up swinging the NL Pennant race.
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Ranger Suarez should be treated more like the elite pitcher he is
It was easy to overlook Suarez as a Phillie because of how good guys like Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sanchez are, and it's easy to overlook him in free agency because of guys like Dylan Cease and Framber Valdez, but Suarez is really good.
The left-hander had a 3.20 ERA in 26 starts and 157.1 innings of work this past season, putting together arguably his best year in a big-league uniform. But his outstanding performance was no fluke for Suarez: Since the start of 2022, he has posted a 3.59 ERA while averaging 26 starts per year. His 12.2 fWAR in that span is good for 19th in the Majors among qualified starters, ahead of guys like Carlos Rodon, Freddy Peralta and Joe Ryan. Many MLB fans are hoping their team finds a way to trade for Peralta or Ryan this winter, while signing Suarez won't cost anything more than money and a draft pick (Suarez received and will likely reject the qualifying offer).
While Suarez should be receiving more attention than he is, it's important to point out why some teams might have concerns when it comes to signing him.
Red flags with Ranger Suarez could hold him back
First, there are clear durability concerns. Suarez has been able to take the ball every fifth day for the most part, but he has not made 30 starts or thrown enough innings to compete for the ERA title a single time. He's also landed on the IL three times since the middle of the 2022 campaign due to back injuries. Lingering back problems for a 30-year-old who is commanding a nine-figure deal doesn't sound great.
Second, Suarez's velocity is in a steep decline. He isn't a pitcher who relies on overpowering the opposition, but how effective can he be if his velocity continues to trend in the wrong direction? Just look at his average fastball velocity the past three seasons, per Baseball Savant:
Year | Average Four-Seam Fastball Velocity |
|---|---|
2023 | 93.4 mph |
2024 | 91.8 mph |
2025 | 91.3 mph |
In just a three-year span, Suarez's average fastball velocity has decreased by over two mph. He's been able to get results in spite of that (again, 2025 might've been his best season) but can this trend reasonably continue?
Ranger Suarez should be worth the risk for contenders
I understand the risk, but if you were to look deeply enough at any starter from this year's free agency class, it wouldn't be hard to find flaws. This class lacks a true No. 1 starter. With that being said, Suarez, even with his concerns, might be the best option out there.
Not only has he been remarkably consistent in the regular season, but he has a career 1.48 ERA in 11 postseason appearances (eight starts). He only gets better when the lights are at their brightest. The Phillies might've lost in the NLDS this past season, but Suarez allowed just one run in five innings against the eventual World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers in the only game Philadelphia won in that series. Whether he starts or works out of the bullpen, Suarez is incredibly tough to hit in October.
Why not bet on that track record?
Ranger Suarez can help these NL contenders in the playoffs
Now that the Phillies are unlikely to re-sign him, Suarez can help swing the NL pennant by joining any of these contenders.
Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs won't spend on re-signing Kyle Tucker, but will they spend on improving their biggest weakness? It's hard to believe that they will, but they should! A postseason rotation consisting of Suarez, Justin Steele, Matthew Boyd and Cade Horton would be tough for any contending team to beat.
San Francisco Giants
Logan Webb and Robbie Ray form one of the best and most underrated rotation duos in the National League, but the San Francisco Giants' No. 3 starter would be Landen Roupp if the season began tomorrow. That's a problem. Adding Suarez, though, would change that reality and make San Francisco much scarier.
New York Mets
The New York Mets' need for an ace is abundantly clear. I'm not sure I'd label Suarez as an ace, but he's the kind of reliable arm New York lacked this past season. Adding him and another arm could put the Mets back in the World Series conversation.
San Diego Padres
Dylan Cease and Michael King are free agents and Yu Darvish is out for all of 2026, meaning all the San Diego Padres have in their rotation right now are Nick Pivetta, Joe Musgrove and a whole bunch of question marks. Suarez would add much-needed stability to this rotation. Do they have the money to spend, though?
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves don't need Suarez nearly as badly as other contenders, but there are clear injury questions in their rotation. Suarez would give them much-needed depth that they lacked in 2025. Stealing him away from the Phillies would just be icing on the cake.