It goes without saying that both Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani reset the market for proven superstars over the last two winters by receiving $700+ million from the New York Mets and the Los Angeles Dodgers, respectively. The next time one of the five best players in the sport hits free agency, there's a good chance they'll receive at least $700 million because of Soto and Ohtani. There isn't a Soto or Ohtani type of free agent this winter, but there are still players who can reset certain markets.
We see markets reset every winter, even when there isn't a superstar available. For example, just last offseason, we saw Max Fried sign the richest contract a left-handed starter has ever received. This doesn't mean he's the best left-handed starter ever, but he reset the market anyway. Tarik Skubal will look to break that record next winter. Josh Hader, meanwhile, received the largest contract a reliever has ever gotten in terms of present-day value. He wasn't the best reliever ever, but again, he still reset the market. Edwin Diaz will presumably look to break that mark this winter. We see this all the time in the NFL: One star sets the bar, and then the next one clears it.
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Pete Alonso can prove older first basemen can still get paid
Some players age better than others, and traditionally, first basemen do not age well. Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera, two of the best right-handed hitters ever, are prime examples of that: Both of these future Hall of Famers saw their production decline exponentially shortly after signing record-setting contracts. Knowing that massive contracts handed out to first basemen over the age of 30 typically don't age well, Pete Alonso struggled to find a long-term deal last offseason. His free agency dragged on so long to the point where he re-signed with the New York Mets on a two-year deal with an opt-out after year one.
Alonso exercised that opt-out, allowing him to test free agency this winter. While he might be a year older, it's a lot more likely that Alonso will get the long-term deal he's coveted for several reasons. He's coming off a much better year than he was last offseason, he's ineligible to receive the qualifying offer and he's the clear-cut best first baseman available.
Alonso, a poor defensive first baseman, receiving a deal for five or more years would prove that first basemen don't have to settle for short-term deals after passing the 30 threshold. It'll be interesting to see if there's a desperate enough suitor out there for his services.
Dylan Cease can show just how valuable starting pitching is
This year's free agency class features a lot of good, but not great, starting pitchers. There is not a single starter out there who you'd consider to be a clear-cut ace. But Dylan Cease is probably the closest thing to one: Sure, he's coming off a down year, which saw him post a 4.55 ERA, but he now has five straight years of 32+ starts, 165+ innings and 210+ strikeouts. Pitchers with his durability and consistency in those areas do not grow on trees.
Even with his ability to take the ball every fifth day, Cease obviously wasn't worth close to $200 million this past season because of his ERA (even if he got unlucky a bit in that department). Will that matter, though? Starting pitching has never been more valuable, and a player who has now posted an ERA above 4.50 ERA in two of the last three years might get a bag because of that.
Edwin Diaz can reset the reliever market
Relievers are crucial to team success, yet they're treated in a similar way as running backs in the NFL. No team wants to pay them a substantial amount of money because of how much risk they carry. Look at Tanner Scott, for example: He was one of the best relievers in baseball in both 2023 and 2024, giving the Dodgers reason to give him a four-year, $72 million deal. But Scott was a disaster in his first year in Los Angeles, and now the Dodgers are stuck with him for three more years.
For better or for worse, Edwin Diaz, a clear-cut high-end reliever, is going to receive a massive contract after opting out of the remaining two years and $38 million of his deal with the New York Mets. The Athletic's ($) Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon made Diaz's free agency goal rather clear: He wants to get paid.
"The deal he wants, according to a person briefed on his wishes, is essentially the same one the Mets gave him the last time," Sammon and Rosenthal wrote.
Giving a soon-to-be 32-year-old reliever a deal comparable to or beyond the five-year, $102 million pact Diaz signed with the Mets in the 2022 offseason might be a tough pill to swallow, but it feels very realistic after Diaz had another outstanding year for New York in 2025. Diaz's previous contract was the richest a reliever has ever signed, and he might get even more than that this time around.
Gleyber Torres and Trent Grisham can show how big a deterrent the qualifying offer is
Signing a player who received and rejected the qualifying offer not only means giving that player a good amount of money, but it also means giving up at least one draft pick to do so. And in some cases, a team might have to give up multiple picks and international bonus money. (The exact penalty for signing a player with a qualifying offer attached depends on how much the team spent the previous year.)
For superstars like Soto and Ohtani, the Mets and Dodgers couldn't care less about paying the qualifying offer penalties. But doing so is much tougher for lesser players like Gleyber Torres and Trent Grisham, both of whom received the QO from the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees, respectively.
There's a chance one or both of these players will accept the offer, making this conversation moot, but in the event that they don't, how many teams would be willing to give up draft pick compensation and a lucrative multi-year deal to these free agents? I know I wouldn't want my team to do that.
Torres might reject the qualifying offer, knowing he'd be the best second baseman available. Grisham might reject the qualifying offer, knowing this could be his best chance of getting a lucrative multi-year deal following his breakout campaign. Rejecting the offer could result in these players waiting for a long time, though. It's a lot easier for teams to pivot elsewhere than it is for teams to overpay for these free agents and part with draft pick compensation.
Torres and Grisham having the kind of offseason I'd expect them to have could show these borderline players that accepting the qualifying offer makes more sense than they might think.
Kyle Schwarber can reset the DH market
Designated hitters not named Ohtani have always been rather limited in free agency for an obvious reason: They do not provide any defensive value. Even J.D. Martinez, one of the best hitters in the sport at the time coming off a 1.066 OPS campaign, settled for a relatively modest five-year, $110 million deal with the Boston Red Sox in the 2017 offseason because he did not play the field.
A 32-year-old DH who does not run well like Schwarber receiving a deal even comparable to the one Martinez signed seems unfathomable these days, especially when he's going to have the qualifying offer attached to him. But Schwarber is a near lock to surpass what Martinez got by a wide margin and reset the DH market.
He slashed .240/.365/.563 with 56 home runs and 132 RBI for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2025, and has been one of the game's premier run producers for a while. At least one team out there will overlook his defensive shortcomings and age concerns and give him the richest contract a pure DH who cannot pitch has ever gotten. Schwarber is the biggest lock to reset his market of any of these players.