Astros sign-stealing defenders can't get ahead of themselves with early Beltrán returns

Nearly a decade after the Houston Astros’ first World Series title, a key member of that 2017 team is inching closer to the National Baseball Hall of Fame. Longtime MLB All-Star outfielder Carlos Beltran, who spent much of that season as the Astros’ starting DH, is in his fourth year on the Hall of Fame ballot, and the early results favor him earning a bronze plaque in Cooperstown next summer.

As of Dec. 1, four Hall of Fame voters had revealed their picks. All four, according to Ryan Thibodaux’s tracker, included Beltran — a nine-time All-Star who accumulated 70.0 bWAR over 20 seasons — on their ballots after previously listing him among their selections last winter.

Could the Astros’ cheating scandal cost Carlos Beltran a spot in the Hall of Fame?

Beltran appeared on 70.3% of ballots last year, trailing only Ichiro Suzuki (99.7%), CC Sabathia (86.8%), and Billy Wagner (82.5%); candidates must appear on 75% of ballots to receive induction.

In what is widely agreed to be a weaker Hall of Fame ballot, Beltran and longtime Atlanta Braves outfielder Andruw Jones (who ranked fifth with 66.2% last year but only has two years of eligibility remaining) are widely considered the favorites to be inducted this time around. Although Beltran is the only player to go a perfect 4-of-4 thus far, his resume still contains an ugly black mark in the form of the Astros’ cheating scandal.

An MLB investigation released in January 2020 determined that Beltrán, then in his final MLB season, worked with Astros bench coach Alex Cora to create a system to steal signs in 2017. Beltrán, who had recently been named the New York Mets’ manager, was the only player named in the report, leading him and the Mets to part ways before he even reported to spring training.

Carlos Beltran and the Astros cheated – there is no gray area

The Astros’ cheating scandal, at least as it relates to the Hall of Fame, arguably doesn’t ride the line the way that the steroid conversation does. Major League Baseball had clearly defined rules against using any technology, whether a smartwatch or a replay room, to steal signs. There isn’t a gray area here, the way there is with players who admitted to using performance-enhancing substances before the league introduced its modern drug policy in 2005. 

After initially denying his involvement, Beltrán later admitted that he “failed” to be a leader by partaking in the sign-stealing. Several Astros players, including All-Star infielders Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve, also apologized for the team’s conduct.

“As a veteran player on the team, I should’ve recognized the severity of the issue and truly regret the actions that were taken,” Beltrán said when he and the Mets parted ways.

The issue here isn’t that Beltrán and the Astros stole signs. It’s that they violated league policies by using technology to do so. And while recent history indicates that most voters don’t hold the scandal against Beltrán, we’re still too early in the process to know whether the majority feels that way. Remember, there is no rounding up with the Hall of Fame, so if Beltrán appears on 74.9% of the ballots this cycle, he’ll need to return next year. He needs at least 75% of voters to decide that they’re willing to look past the Astros’ cheating.

Beltrán’s Hall of Fame candidacy will have a massive impact on baseball going forward, regardless of his potential induction. Although Altuve publicly insisted he never participated in the sign-stealing, he’s nonetheless been the face of the Astros for over a decade. Altuve could face a significantly more challenging road to enshrinement if the voters never elect Beltrán. Conversely, Altuve could be a possible first-ballot enshrinee if Beltrán is inducted in the coming years.

One thing is for sure: So long as Beltrán is on the Hall of Fame ballot, we’re going to keep collectively discussing the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal, much in the same way that we’ll continue talking about PEDs while Álex Rodríguez and Manny Ramírez have a shot at Cooperstown.