We took a week off with a lot of weather and weird matchups making for an interesting week, but now we’re back with two plays to kick off the final week of June. For the first, we’re heading to the East Coast to find Ronald Acuña Jr. of the Atlanta Braves against the New York Mets. For our second play, we’re heading to the later part of the slate to find Luis Garcia Jr. of the Washington Nationals in their matchup with the San Diego Padres.
Our last time out, we got another split, and we walked away with some profit as we look to continue climbing out of the early hole that we have found ourselves in. Jac Caglianone was 1-for-2 on the day before lining out on a missile to the first baseman in his third plate appearance. In his final at-bat of the night, he was walked in the ninth inning where we came up short.For Christian Yelich, it wasn’t pretty, but he got the job done in his third plate appearance. He went 0-for-2 in the game, but one of his outs was a fielder’s choice where he drove in a runner from third. Ultimately, we walk away with .52 units of profit.
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- Ronald Acuña Jr. O2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+110) - 1 Unit Caesar’s
- Luis Garcia Jr. O0.5 RBIs (+185) - .50 Units Fanatics
Ronald Acuña Jr. O2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+110)
For the first time this year, we’re taking a look at Acuña, who has been on a tear since returning from the knee injury that cut his season short last year. Through 27 games, Acuña is slashing .396/.504/.698, and he’s already hit eight home runs after hitting just four in 49 games in 2024. Over the last week, the former NL MVP is batting .421 with 21 combined hits, runs and RBI while only registering 19 at-bats due to his league-leading eight walks. He’s batting .449 with a 1.307 OPS against righties this year, while those numbers drop to .167 and .764 against lefties in a small sample size.
The Mets are sending Paul Blackburn to the bump for today’s game. This will be his third start of the season, and it is his second start in a row against the Braves. Over his last three appearances, Blackburn has allowed 15 hits and 11 runs in just eight innings of work. In his last start, Blackburn gave up four runs in just 3.2 innings of work, including a home run to Acuña on his first pitch of the game. The Braves are 11-for-36 against Blackburn so far this season, with six of those 11 hits going for extra bases, and righties are also batting .333 with a .625 slugging percentage. I love this spot for Acuña.
Luis Garcia Jr. O0.5 RBIs (+185)
We’re taking a look at a Nationals player for the third time this season with Garcia Jr. getting the nod this time. Over the last week, Garcia is batting .375 with nine hits in 24 plate appearances. Of those nine hits, four of them have gone for extra bases, and he’s driven in six runs over that stretch, including four over his last three games. Garcia is batting .271 overall this year, and that number is being largely carried by his work against righties. Against lefties, he is batting .162 and slugging .216. Against righties, Garcia's numbers jump to .290 and .467, including 31 of his 35 RBI, and he gets a strong matchup to continue that trend tonight.
The Padres are sending Stephen Kolek to the bump to start the series. Through nine starts this season, Kolek has been decent against right-handed batters, as he’s allowed them to bat just .211 with a .221 slugging percentage. However, against lefties, he’s gotten tagged to the tune of a .293 average with a .495 slugging percentage. They also have accounted for all five of his home runs allowed and 18 of his 23 runs. Garcia is 1-for-1 against Kolek in his career, and the two batters in front of him are both lefties that have done well against righties this season. I like Garcia to continue his recent hot streak.
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