Sunday's blockbuster swap between the New York Mets and Texas Rangers sent shockwaves around baseball. Sure, there had been rumors surrounding Brandon Nimmo for weeks if not months, but dealing him now? And doing it in return for Marcus Semien, another big-money player who wasn't on anybody's radar?
It's not hard to see what the Mets were thinking here: Nimmo's poor outfield defense made him a poor long-term fit with Juan Soto, and this move allows them to reorient their roster while also swapping five years of a bloated contract for three. But while this may have been in New York's best interest, it's going to reverberate all around the league — including with a bitter NL East rival, whose dream offseason just got a bit more realistic.
The Atlanta Braves' wish list should start and end with Bo Bichette, a legitimate star at the team's biggest position of need (shortstop). The Mets also figured to be in on Bichette, given their question mark at either second or third base ... but now, with Semien in tow, it sure seems like that question has been answered, meaning that Atlanta has one less big-market suitor to deal with in trying to secure Bichette's services. And they aren't the only ones smiling after this stunning trade.
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Winner: David Stearns
Time will tell whether this move precipitates the sort of offseason that can get the Mets back into World Series contention starting next year. But what's inarguable is the magnitude of it, and the latitude Stearns has been given to reshape this roster in his image.
Nimmo was the longest-tenured Met, a first-round draft pick way back in 2011 who had put his name all over the franchise record books over a decade in Queens. But there's no place for sentiment, especially not in this market. Once his defense in the outfield began to collapse, he was an awkward fit across from Soto, and that meant he had to go.
So go he did. Stearns didn't just fill a need at second base in this deal; he also freed himself up to wheel and deal over the coming weeks and months, clearing out left field while creating an infield surplus to trade from (and plenty of financial flexibility with which to work, now that Nimmo's deal is no longer clogging the books through 2030). Bigger things are sure to come, and you can make a good argument that Sunday was when the Stearns era in New York truly began.
Losers: Pete Alonso and Edwin Diaz
Which probably doesn't bode well for the two other faces of the franchise who have just hit free agency. Both Alonso (something in the neighborhood of seven years) and Diaz (something akin to the five-year, $102 million deal he signed with New York in December 2022) have made it clear that they expect to cash in this winter. But both are also the sort of player that more analytically inclined front offices will be nervous to pay up for: Righty first basemen and closers are two volatile categories, especially once the aging curve comes into play as they near their mid-30s.
For as valuable as they've been and as beloved as they are by Mets fans, neither one of them feels like a very Stearns signing, unless their markets collapse and their asking prices come back down to Earth. Losing either or both will hurt in the short term, but there's also a good chance their next contracts become albatrosses. It feels like this trade was a statement of intent, a message that a house-cleaning is in order to help this team get younger and nimbler moving forward.
Winner: Kyle Tucker (and his agent)
It was already great to be Tucker, clearly the top free agent available in this year's class. But it should be even better now that the richest owner in baseball just freed up some long-term cash — and created an opening in left field that now needs to be filled.
Maybe the Mets have no interest in making a move on Tucker; they've played things very close to the vest so far. But it feels like this can't be a mere coincidence, if for no other reason than the fact that the outfield market dries up very quickly after Tucker and Cody Bellinger.
And if New York is in on Tucker, then this bidding could head into the stratosphere. Sure, he's not going to sniff Soto money, but $400 million feels like the floor if the Mets, Yankees and Dodgers are all competing for the same star player. If nothing else, the looming spectre of New York's outfield opening is great leverage for agent Casey Close to work with.
Losers: The Yankees and Blue Jays
Any team interested in signing Tucker now has more competition to deal with. And at the same time, this move would seem to signal that the Rangers don't have much of any interest in indulging those Corey Seager trade rumors; swapping Semien for Nimmo accomplished the main task of trimming some short-term payroll and ducking back under the tax, and Texas can't create a vacancy at both middle-infield spots.
That's bad news for a pair of AL East rivals. The Yankees need an outfielder or two, and now they have to fend off the Mets at the top of the market. Plus, the pipe dream of a Seager deal is dead, and fans will likely get an encore performance of Anthony Volpe: Everyday Shortstop next season. The Blue Jays figure to be in on Tucker as well, and they could also be in the middle-infield market if Bichette walks. (Toronto was a finalist for Seager back in 2021, so they likely would have been interested again had he been available.)
Winner: Sebastian Walcott
If you're not familiar with the name, now's your chance. He won't turn 20 until March, but Walcott has already established himself as one of the best infield prospects in baseball: He's got a droolworthy frame at 6-foot-4, and he just more than held his own at the plate over a full season at Double-A as a 19-year-old.
Granted, putting him in the mix for an Opening Day job might still be a little premature. But he's a consensus top-10 prospect in the sport for a reason, and there's no way Texas would have been ready and willing to part with Semien if it didn't have the utmost faith in Walcott filling that void sooner rather than later.