It's sunshine and rainbows at Wrigley Field this week after the Chicago Cubs signed third baseman Alex Bregman to a five-year, $175 million deal. It's a move Cubs fans have been begging the Ricketts family to make all winter long, especially considering Chicago is more than likely to lose outfielder Kyle Tucker.
But still, $175 million is a lot of money for a 32-year-old. Bregman may be productive now, but he played in just 114 games last season. There are some warning signs that he may not age well, which could limit the Cubs future spending. In that sense, Chicago could take a lesson from their rival, the St. Louis Cardinals.
Why Cardinals traded Nolan Arenado to the Diamondbacks
St. Louis has been trying – no, begging – any team to take Nolan Arenado's contract for the better part of a year now. Finally, the Diamondbacks bit, but it took the Cardinals paying the vast majority of his contract for that trade to become a reality.
As Bob Nightengale reported, the Cardinals are paying $31 million of the $42 million owed to Arenado over the next two seasons. St. Louis would've traded Arenado sooner had they not given him a partial no-trade clause. In fact, they agreed to a deal with the Houston Astros prior to last season, but Arenado refused to go through with it.
That situation left the Cardinals in a bind the Cubs might one day relate to. It also suggests why the Boston Red Sox – Bregman's former team – wasn't interested in giving him a no-trade clause.
Alex Bregman's contract comes with risks for the Cubs
I don't blame the Cubs in the slightest for spending on Bregman. Their lineup had a gaping hole in it without him. Chicago made Craig Counsell the highest-paid manager in baseball two years ago for a reason, and it's because they expect to contend for a World Series. Now, the Cubs still have a long way to go before they're on the Dodgers and Brewers level, but adding Bregman is a step in the right direction.
Every contract has a downside. For Bregman, it's the fact that he's 32 years old and on a five-year deal with a no-trade clause. That means the Cubs will more than likely be on the hook for almost all of his $175 million. None of that will matter if they win a World Series in that timespan, and Bregman is valued not just for his on-field presence, but his clubhouse leadership. Here's what Bregman's contract looks like in full.
Year | AAV |
|---|---|
2026 | $32.5 million |
2027 | $32.5 million |
2028 | $32.5 million |
2029 | $32.5 million |
2030 | $32.5 million |
Bregman will make $32.5 million AAV over the course of his contract (including deferred money), while Arenado's eight-year, $240 million deal he signed as a member of the Colorado Rockies pays him $32.5 million AAV when averaged out over the span of his deal. That deal will expire when Arenado is 37 years old, much like Bregman's eventually will. The similarities are striking.
Cubs could run into their own Nolan Arenado problem
Arenado had arguably the best season of his career with the Cardinals in his age-31 year. That season, Arenado had a 7.9 bWAR, 151 OPS+ and won a gold glove and silver slugger. Had Bregman stayed healthy, he was on pace for a 5.0 bWAR season and had a 128 OPS+. Those are great numbers, and he remains a capable defensive player at third base.
FanGraphs projects Bregman to finish next season with a 4.0 WAR. Arenado's age-32 season is when he started to go downhill offensively. While still a gold glove-caliber defensive player, he hasn't had an OPS over .800 since then.
Age | OPS |
|---|---|
32 | .774 |
33 | .719 |
34 | .666 |
Now, we can't predict what the future looks like for Bregman. Assuming the Cubs are still competitive over the next 3-5 years, it won't matter if he hits a similar slide offensively. Again, MLB front offices fawned all winter over Bregman's clubhouse presence. He, along with shortstop Dansby Swanson, give the Cubs a veteran infield core they can build around.
But much like the Cardinals, if the Cubs hit a rough patch, trading Bregman will be borderline impossible unless he agrees to the move. That lack of flexibility is a tough pill for front offices to swallow, even though signing Bregman made sense in the moment.