Despite a win over the San Diego Padres on Thursday night, it seems more than likely that the St. Louis Cardinals will be sellers rather than buyers at this year's trade deadline. Just 2.5 games (and three different teams) separate them from the third and final NL Wild Card spot, but this team is still just 20-26 since the start of June; they haven't looked like legitimate contenders for a while now, and mortgaging the future in pursuit of a lost cause isn't what smart organizations do this time of year.
In a perfect world, third baseman Nolan Arenado would be at the top of the team's list of likely trade assets. He's had a down year at the plate, with an 89 OPS+ entering play on Friday, but he remains a rock-solid defender. That sort of profile should still have a market, especially given how view other position players there are available right now, and the Cardinals have tons of young infield talent in the pipeline that will need playing time sooner rather than later.
Unfortunately for St. Louis, we don't live in that world. In reality, Arenado is tied to a massive contract that will take him through the 2027 season. He also comes with a full no-trade clause that he's already used once before. Hardly any team wants to take on a 34-year-old declining player at that price point, much less one of the handful of teams on his wish list. And if the Cardinals needed another reminder of that fact, they got it on Friday.
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Yankees' trade for Ryan McMahon is a sign of just how little market Nolan Arenado has
We saw a major trade for a third baseman on Friday afternoon, it just wasn't the one that some Cardinals fans may have been hoping for. Instead, the New York Yankees — a team that's been linked to Arenado since last winter — opted for Colorado Rockies infielder Ryan McMahon. Like Arenado, McMahon isn't a star player at this point in his career, combining good defense with below-average offense. And like Arenado, McMahon comes with significant money still owed, with $32 million guaranteed across 2026 and 2027.
And yet, the Yankees chose McMahon anyway, which should send a clear signal to St. Louis as to where Arenado stands on the trade market. More specifically: He doesn't have much standing at all, and at this point it's hard to imagine the Cardinals getting out from under his contract without attaching real prospect value to it or paying off a significant portion of the money.
John Mozeliak has been reluctant to consider either, and rightfully so; the last thing the Cardinals need to be doing is selling future assets and giving up future financial flexibility. But as the last few months have proven, it's just impossible to find a fit for Arenado on a contender, especially with his bat getting worse and worse by the day. He's a fine player, one who could be useful to a good team, but good teams don't usually have some $25 million in payroll lying around (plus $25 million more in 2027, at which point he'll be 36 and even further diminished). And if they do, they're certainly looking to put it to better use.
Arenado's desire to play for a contender in the twilight of his career is understandable, and his loyalty to the Cardinals is admirable. But his goals are now in direct conflict with the organization's as it looks to retool for 2026, and there's seemingly no easy resolution coming.