The St. Louis Cardinals offseason is essentially here. With just a week remaining in the regular season, the Cardinals postseason hopes vanished long ago. A hot start gave way to the dog days of summer, and while the temperature went up in St. Louis, the bats cooled. The Cardinals do have some young talent to build around. John Mozeliak, a man who has led to the front office as president of baseball operations for more than a decade, will give way to a new baseball mind in Chaim Bloom.
What Bloom intends to do during his time with the Cardinals will largely depend on ownership, but if fan attendance and viewership is any indication, it could be time for St. Louis to commit to a rebuild. That won't make fans happy, but it also would lend some credence to what Mozeliak said this weekend of what's to come of the Cards franchise he invested so much of his time in over the years.
“I don’t fear going through (a rebuild)," Mozeliak told Nightengale, “but I do think it’s time for a fresh voice. I felt like where the organization was, something had to give. I felt like it started with me, and it was either really trying to do a major reset or let someone else come in and give it a shot."
Mozeliak doesn't fear a rebuild, but it is the kind of task which requires more than he is willing to give. Moving forward, Bloom must have eyes everywhere, whether it be following the Cardinals minor-league system, knowing the right time to cut bait with a talented veteran, or when St. Louis is actually in position to succeed.
Complete Cardinals offseason preview
- St. Louis Cardinals free agency preview: Miles Mikolas won't return
- Cardinals trade targets: End of an era for Nolan Arenado, more
- More Cardinals on the outs
St. Louis Cardinals free agency preview: Miles Mikolas won't return
If the Cardinals are to make a major splash this offseason, it likely won't be via the free-agent market. A CBA battle is brewing, which means the Cardinals – a team that likely lost money for its ownership group this season on the field, at least – won't spend much to upgrade the roster. There's a good chance Bloom tries to spin this reality as a rebuild, which would at least provide Cardinals fans with the direction they've been lacking.
The Cards only have one MLB-level free agent this winter in Miles Mikolas. As an unrestricted free agent, there is a good chance he's already pitched his last inning in St. Louis – but we'll get to that. The trade market should be far more fruitful for the Cardinals thanks to Bloom, a front office executive who is willing to do whatever it takes to shed payroll and increase prospect capital, even if it angers the fanbase. Look no further than his past Red Sox deals involving Mookie Betts – who he traded to the Dodgers, and losing Xander Bogarts in free agency.
Free agent who won't be back: Miles Mikolas
Mikolas signed a three-year contract with the Cardinals worth over $55 million in 2023. Unless he is willing to take significantly less than that, he'd be better off pitching elsewhere. This season, Mikolas had a 4.76 ERA in over 150 innings pitched. He is no longer the ace-level starting pitcher the Cards once thought he could be, and thus isn't worth the headache of a veteran who doesn't belong on a retooling roster. Bloom would be better off letting Mikolas walk, and instead giving his roster spot to a young player with much to prove. With the likes of Quinn Matthews, Liam Doyle, Tink Hence and more Cardinals prospects looming in the farm system, why block their own emergence with an aging asset?
This is a two-way street, of course. Mikolas has little reason to pitch in St. Louis if he can find a contending team willing to give him a shot. While Mikolas is not the starting pitcher he once was, he remains an innings-eater, which is a necessity for any team over the course of a 162-game season.
Mikolas walked off the mound after what could be his final home start as a Cardinal to a standing ovation just a few days ago. Oli Marmol admitted he let Mikolas pitch an extra inning because he 'deserved it' given all he's accomplished with the organization. Sometimes, there's no shame in saying goodbye.
Cardinals trade targets: End of an era for Nolan Arenado, more
Nolan Arenado
It was a good run for Nolan Arenado, who received a standing ovation of his own from Cardinals fans in what could be his final home game at Busch Stadium. Arenado acknowledged that chance is likely coming this winter, though any deal will require his own approval.
“Whatever happens, I really enjoyed my time here and I was really happy that I got traded here,” Arenado said. “I have no regrets about it.”
Arenado has two years and $42 million left on his contract. It's a deal the Cardinals have wanted out of for quite some time, dating back to last winter when Mozeliak tried to deal Arenado to Houston. Arenado refused to waive his no-trade clause, and reportedly wouldn't consider trades to fellow contenders like Detroit. With the Cardinals headed towards a rebuild, he will have no choice but to find a new home if he hopes to end his career on a winning note.
The bad news for the Cardinals is that Arenado has just a .656 OPS as of this writing. He's a below-average hitter at the plate. Arenado still offers plenty of value at the hot corner defensively, but is it enough to overlook the gaping lineup hole he's becoming offensively? Given his contract, the Cards will have a tough time getting much of value for him.
Sonny Gray
The Cardinals would've considered trading ace Sonny Gray at the MLB trade deadline, but he was always unlikely to waive his no-trade clause in-season. Now, with a full offseason ahead of him, Gray could be more inclined depending on the location. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote this about Gray's future just last week.
"Let me just add that real quick here. A) Gray has not said, though he has indicated that there are teams that have situations he'd be interested in. He signed with the Cardinals ahead of an offer from Arizona. Atlanta can offer some of what the Cardinals do that he wanted, geographically. SF does not. But it's a chance perhaps to reconnect with Bob Melvin, and they are close. B) The current Cardinals would engage in that conversation. We'll find out what Bloom's approach will be. To date, it's not clear. It may be the same because ownership is the same. It may be different because Bloom has a different approach."
Gray signed with the Cardinals initially due to location. He is from Tennessee and wanted to be close to home, hence Goold's take on the Braves being a potential suitor. Gray has a 4.33 ERA this season, and has underperformed like much of the St. Louis rotation. His contract – due to pay him $35 million next season on an expiring deal – won't do the Cardinals much favor, either.
More Cardinals on the outs
Willson Contreras
If Bloom and the Cardinals hope to jumpstart their rebuild in a meaningful way, they will have to part ways with meaningful talent. Rebuilds are supposed to hurt, and these trades would be tough to stand by. Contreras went on the record in July just prior to the trade deadline that he wanted to stay in St. Louis. Oli Marmol defended him as such, saying he's passionate about the Cardinal Way and the team's future no matter who is leading the front office.
“He’s passionate about being in St. Louis and being a part of what we’re doing,” Marmol said. “He likes what’s going on and where we’re headed and wants to make sure he can continue to be himself and bring value to this whole thing, which I’m super appreciative of. I like having him around and I love that guy.”
What Marmol didn't say is that Contreras will be tough to trade. While his .791 OPS would be appetizing were he an everyday catcher, that is no longer the case. Contreras played mostly first base for the Cards this season, and was shut down for the year just under a week ago. His contract, which pays him over $18 million per year through 2027, doesn't match the production of a middle-of-the-pack first baseman, a position meant to buoy any lineup.
Brendan Donovan
If the Cardinals had wanted to get the most for Brendan Donovan, they would've been best-served trading him in July. Instead, Mozeliak banked on St. Louis as a contender and opted against trading one of their best players. What makes Donovan such an intriguing asset is that he can played at least three positions well, is an above-average hitter and has three years left of arbitration. He was arguably one of the Cards best players in a down season, and made the All-Star Game as a result.
Trading their lone All-Star would be a tough sell by Bloom to the fanbase, but if it comes with a solid prospect haul and the right messaging, it's a move the Cardinals must consider. The Cards' roster doesn't offer many impressive trade assets, as the vast majority of the moves discussed are little more than salary dumps. Dealing Donovan would bring back something of value, and eventual MLB-ready talent.