Cubs can rectify offseason mistake with blockbuster Royals trade

Regardless of Justin Steele's elbow injury early in 2025, the Chicago Cubs were going to explore the trade market for another starting pitcher before the trade deadline. And we're not talking about a depth piece either, or a veteran to eat up innings; the front office has already dabbled in pursuing a younger arm with upside potential, and they figure to do so again this time around.

Fans may remember that the Cubs had a deal in place for a splashy pitching upgrade before they got cold feet back in December. But they now have a chance to rectify that mistake with a trade target from the Kansas City Royals.

Cubs regret not trading for Jesus Luzardo

The Cubs reportedly backed out of a trade with the Miami Marlins for left-handed starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo after the team was concerned about the pitcher's medical report. Luzardo, 27, missed a couple months during the 2022 season because of a forearm strain and was then sidelined for the final three-plus months of the 2024 season after being diagnosed with a lumbar stress reaction in his back.

Luzardo, who is under team control via a fourth year of arbitration through the 2026 season, was eventually traded to the Philadelphia Phillies over the winter.

The lefty has a 4.06 ERA through 17 starts in 2025, and although that number doesn't seem impressive, you have to consider that out of the 43 earned runs Luzardo has allowed this year 20 of them came in back-to-back starts. They all count the same, but in Luzardo's other 15 starts he's recorded a 2.31 ERA in 89.2 innings.

So far through June, the Cubs have relied on a trio of pitchers to fill in at the back end of the rotation — and the results leave a lot to be desired. Colin Rea has been the best of the bunch with a 4.37 ERA, while young right-handers Ben Brown and Cade Horton have recorded a 6.13 and 4.80 ERA, respectively. Brown was recently optioned to Triple-A, losing his spot in the rotation.

Cubs need to pursue Royals starter Kris Bubic

According to a recent report via North Side Baseball, the Cubs made progress in trade talks with the Royals for veteran starter Seth Lugo. The 35-year-old has a 2.74 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 15 starts this season, which is following up his impressive 2024 campaign when Lugo had a 3.00 ERA and 1.09 ERA in 33 starts.

Lugo has been an effective starter since returning to the rotation in 2023 with the San Diego Padres, but if the Cubs want to make a bold move and target a younger pitcher with ace potential, as they were when engaging in talks for Luzardo, then they need to pursue Kris Bubic instead.

To begin with, Lugo is technically under team control through 2026, but that's with a player option worth $15 million. If the right-hander continues to pitch close to his current pace, then he'll surely decline that option and seek a better deal in free agency. How can this go bad for the Cubs? Imagine they do trade for him and then Lugo blows out his arm down the stretch. Then, Lugo would lock in his $15 million salary for 2026 and the Cubs would be stuck with dead money.

If the Cubs and Royals are already talking about a potential trade, then it makes more sense for Jed Hoyer to target Bubic, who is guaranteed to be under team control in 2026 via his fourth year of arbitration.

Like Luzardo, Bubic is a former big-name prospect who took a while to marinate before tapping into his potential. The Royals lefty had a 4.85 ERA in his first 60 MLB starts from 2020-23, before he underwent Tommy John surgery that kept him out for almost all of 2023. Bubic returned to action the following year but was used out of the bullpen, where he became a stud. The lefty made 27 appearances for Kansas City last year and posted a 2.67 ERA in 30.1 innings with a great strikeout to walk ratio of 39:5.

That success has continued in 2025, as Bubic has transformed into one of the best starting pitchers in the American League. The 27-year-old ranks fifth in the AL with a 2.25 ERA in 16 starts, while carrying a 26.0 K rate, and he's only allowed five home runs in 96 innings.

Going after Bubic following his breakout is going to cost the Cubs. He's only set to earn $3 million this year, which will make him extremely affordable in 2026. Plus, despite the Tommy John surgery, Bubic doesn't have the same level of injury concern that Luzardo did.

Cubs can make bold statement with Kris Bubic trade

So, what would it take for the Cubs to get their hands on Bubic? If they want to be serious World Series contenders in 2025, the answer should be whatever it takes. MLB Network's Jon Morosi was on 670 The Score Wednesday, and he pointed out why the Cubs should be going after Bubic at this year's trade deadline.

"He's the kind of guy that's going to command a major price tag. That's the kind of guy that's probably going to be outside of the scope of the Brewers, but should not be outside the scope of the Cubs and that's what I'm seeing there," Morosi said. "You hired Craig Counsell to go for it and now you have a chance to finish ahead of Counsell's former team and act like a large-market team. For me, Kris Bubic would be the announcement that the Cubs are really serious about winning in 2025."

Top Cubs prospect Owen Caissie was reportedly going to be part of the Luzardo trade with the Marlins that ultimately broke down. The outfield prospect has been subject to ongoing trade rumors in 2025, and Caissie could headline a blockbuster trade with the Royals along with Ben Brown, who won't be a free agent until 2030.

Maybe the Cubs entice the Royals with a trade package featuring their other top prospect, 21-year-old hitting machine Moises Ballesteros, giving Kansas City a pair of young bats.

The Cubs let Luzardo slip out of their grasp last offseason and he's been a solid member of the Phillies rotation since. He could have been an ideal addition to the Cubs' current rotation mix, but they missed out. They now have a shot here to rectify that mistake and get a better version Luzardo in Bubic, and if there was a time to pay up, then it's now — when the Cubs have their best shot at winning a title in nearly a decade.