The Chicago Cubs have had what's felt like a dream season at times and enter the All-Star break in sole possession of first place in the NL Central, but even with their 57-39 record, they sit just 1.0 game ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers for the top spot in the division. The pressure is on Chicago to win the NL Central for the first time in a full season (excluding 2020) since 2017, and the Cubs appear to have a major leg up over their arch-rivals in that division race.
MLB Remaining Strength of Schedule pic.twitter.com/go1IvPS0Zp
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) July 14, 2025
This graphic is jarring. It shows that not only do the Brewers have the 10th-toughest strength of schedule in the second half, but the Cubs have the easiest strength of schedule. This, of course, means that they'll have the easiest schedule the rest of the way. That, for obvious reasons, should help Chicago run away with the division.
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Cubs can take advantage of easiest schedule to win NL Central
The Cubs have not had an easy schedule to begin their season, to say the least, so their record despite that is impressive. What's been most impressive about this Cubs team is watching them take care of business against losing teams, the exact clubs they're set to see lots of in the second half.
Chicago went 27-28 against teams at or above .500 in the first half. That isn't an impressive record, but it shows, at the very least, that the Cubs can compete with quality competition. This record also means that the Cubs went a whopping 30-11 against teams below .500.
Winning teams are supposed to beat losing teams at a high clip, but winning 30 of 41 against sub-.500 competition is indisputably impressive. That's a .732 winning percentage for those who don't want to do the math.
For the Cubs to win the division, they simply have to do what they've been doing. If they continue to beat up on the bad teams, their schedule, combined with Milwaukee's difficult road, should put them in the driver's seat in the NL Central.
Schedule alone isn't what's going to win the NL Central division for the Cubs
The Cubs have the benefit of an easy schedule in the second half, but they are also simply more talented than the Brewers. No disrespect to Milwaukee, as what they've done this season has been impressive with the roster that the Brewers have, but again, the Cubs have the talent advantage. That should play a role down the stretch.
The Cubs rank second in the Majors, trailing only the Los Angeles Dodgers, in runs scored. Their offense is as good as any, and if they acquire a third baseman at the trade deadline, they might be able to overtake Los Angeles at the top of the runs leaderboard.
In addition to their elite offense, the Cubs' bullpen ranks sixth in the Majors in ERA, and their rotation, despite a bevy of injuries, has been roughly average this season. Jed Hoyer pulling off a trade for a big-time starter and a reliever could drastically improve those areas as well.
To put it simply, there's no excuse for the Cubs to fall short in the NL Central race. Their schedule is as easy as it can be, and their roster is supremely talented. Whether they can take advantage of the opportunity they're being given remains to be seen.