The 2025 regular season is coming down the home stretch, and contenders around the league are doing everything they can to make sure their postseason positioning is as secure as possible. Just get to the dance, and you give yourself a chance to go on a magical run through October.
But of course, not all playoff matchups are created equal. Some are scarier than others, based on a team's given strengths and weaknesses. Which is why we decided to take a look at how the AL bracket is shaping up, and which paths might be best for all six of the teams currently occupying a playoff spot. What's the dream scenario for your team? Let's dive in.
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Toronto Blue Jays
New York Yankees in ALDS
Boston Red Sox in ALCS
Yes, New York did manage to take two of three from Toronto in the Bronx over the weekend, but you have to think that the Jays wouldn't back away from that matchup in October. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. loves nothing more than launching nukes at Yankee Stadium, and Toronto has controlled the season series for a reason: They're essentially New York's foil, a team that makes tons of contact at the plate, plays with relentless aggression on the basepaths and never beats itself. The Yankees might have more firepower, but the Jays are going to put pressure on them until they finally crack.
It might not be the most likely scenario for Toronto to catch both divisional foes in the postseason, but if Boston somehow drops to the No. 6 seed it could well happen. The Jays have won seven of 10 games against the Red Sox this year, and it's not hard to figure out why: Outside of one ugly 15-1 loss, Toronto has been able to keep Boston off the scoreboard. Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios both have long track records of success in this matchup, and that's not even considering Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber, neither of whom have faced the Sox this season. I'll believe the Red Sox can score enough runs and beat the Blue Jays when I see it.
Detroit Tigers
Houston Astros in ALDS
Boston Red Sox in ALCS
The Tigers are going to go exactly as far as Tarik Skubal takes them, and the presumptive AL Cy Young winner was utterly dominant in his one start against Houston back in mid-August, throwing seven shutout innings while striking out 10. He also pitched well in this matchup in last year's Wild Card round, and you know Detroit won't be scared of going into Daikin Park (especially considering how well AJ Hinch knows his former organization). Plus, Houston's righty-heavy lineup would help guys like Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize excel behind Skubal in the postseason rotation, and the other option here, the Mariners, have had Skubal's number this season.
The Blue Jays loom as a tough matchup for the Tigers, a contact-oriented team that can frustrate Skubal and whose righty-heavy rotation doesn't line up well for a Detroit offense that has fared far better against southpaws this year. That at least gives them a fighter's chance against Garrett Crochet, and Boston's lack of real rotation depth behind its ace mirrors and mitigates the Tigers' own. Plus, the murky status of Roman Anthony for October can only help.
Houston Astros
Boston Red Sox in Wild Card round
Detroit Tigers in ALDS
New York Yankees in ALCS
The Astros' platoon splits are among the most extreme in baseball; they chew up lefties and struggle mightily against lefties. So drawing Boston, led by a lefty in Crochet and a righty in Lucas Giolito who's always had reverse splits, could be beneficial. The one team Houston really doesn't want a piece of are the Mariners, so the hope has to be that Boston will drop down a spot to the No. 6 seed over the final few weeks.
The Blue Jays also have a rotation full of righties, which could present some problems. So let's match Houston up with the Tigers instead, not so much because it's an ideal matchup (see above) but because it's the least-worst of the likely options. And if the Astros do somehow get to the ALCS, you can't imagine they'll be scared of seeing the Yankees, a team they've bounced from the postseason plenty of times in recent years and who themselves boast lefties in Max Fried and Carlos Rodon atop their rotation.
New York Yankees
Seattle Mariners in Wild Card round
Detroit Tigers in ALDS
Houston Astros in ALCS
For whatever reason, the Yankees have just historically had the Mariners' number, going back to those awesome Seattle teams around the turn of the millennium. And that's remained true this year, as New York has taken five of six in the season series. Cal Raleigh has yet to do much damage against Yankee pitching, while All-Star closer Andres Munoz has struggled terribly. Plus, New York is the rare team that has enough firepower to really threaten Seattle's pitching depth. But really, anything to avoid Boston is preferable here.
Speaking of division rivals New York wants to avoid: The Yankees would much rather see Detroit in the ALDS than the Blue Jays, a team who has run them ragged all season long. Skubal is no fun to face, but this offense could do serious damage against the likes of Flaherty and Mize. And if they're avoiding both Boston and Toronto on their run to the World Series, that necessarily means a date with the Astros in the ALCS.
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees in Wild Card round
Detroit Tigers in ALDS
Houston Astros in ALCS
You know that Boston would kill to welcome New York to Fenway Park for a best-of-three Wild Card series, an outcome that's well within reach if the Red Sox can take advantage of the upcoming series between the two this weekend. Alex Cora's crew have taken each of the last two postseason meetings between these two rivals as well.
We already detailed above why Boston doesn't match up nearly as well with Toronto; they'd much prefer to see Detroit in this spot, especially considering the solid effort they put up against Skubal the one time they faced the lefty earlier this year. And, forced to choose between Seattle and Houston in the ALCS, the Red Sox should take the latter every time given how inconsistent this offense has been and how the Mariners' pitching depth could take advantage of Boston's middling (of late) offense — you never want to go into a series at a rotation disadvantage.
Seattle Mariners
Houston Astros in Wild Card round
Detroit Tigers in ALDS
Boston Red Sox in ALCS
Divisional revenge aside, Seattle's power righties would be licking their chops at the chance to face off against this Astros lineup again, even with Yordan Alvarez back in the mix and hitting like an MVP candidate. The Astros as a team have a 99 wRC+ against righties, tying them for 20th in the Majors. On the flip side, Houston's 108 wRC+ against southpaws is good for fifth best in the league.
Two of Skubal's four losses this year have come against the Mariners; he's allowed seven runs in 10.2 innings against them, and that was before Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez got to town. If Skubal isn't staking Detroit to a competitive advantage, the Tigers are in trouble, and George Kirby and Bryan Woo are far better Game 2 and 3 starters than Flaherty and Mize.
Seattle doesn't want to see the Yankees here, which leaves us to choose between the Red Sox and Blue Jays. I'm going with the former, just because I trust their lineup less against the power stuff that the Mariners' rotation will be bringing to the table. Toronto's offense has been a wagon all year, frustrating even the best arms in the league, and I think Seattle's big edge (their starting rotation) will shine more here.