Even the Red Sox broadcast knew Tommy Kahnle would gift Boston a playoff spot

September hasn't been the kindest of months for the Boston Red Sox, yet they entered Friday's action needing just one win for them to clinch a postseason berth for the first time since 2021. For much of Friday's game, it felt as if the Detroit Tigers had the upper hand, especially when they took a 3-0 lead in the fourth inning. Boston climbed back, though, and wound up winning the game in dramatic fashion.

Ceddanne Rafaela drilled a walk-off triple to center field, scoring Romy Gonzalez from first base and winning Boston the game and a postseason berth. It was the kind of storybook ending Red Sox fans at Fenway Park were hoping for, and if we're being honest, it was all too predictable.

Red Sox radio broadcaster (and former infielder) Will Middlebrooks predicted this exact outcome on WEEI. To be honest, even Tigers fans likely saw it coming. This outcome had everything to do with Tommy Kahnle.

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Will Middlebrooks predicted what Tigers fans already know about Tommy Kahnle

There's leaning on your best pitch, and there's doing what Tommy Kahnle does. Kahnle's best pitch is his change-up, and boy, does he rely on it. He throws it a ton, and at times, exclusively. Given that, Middlebrooks made a prediction that if Kahnle were to make a mistake with that pitch, Rafaela would end the game.

"Just need Kahnle to let one of those changeups leak back middle-in and he will not get that baseball back," Middlebrooks said.

One of those change-ups leaked back middle-in, and he did not get that baseball back. Rafaela got a pitch he was sitting on right in his sweet spot and crushed it for his game-winning triple.

Being that predictable is a problem, and is something Tigers fans could've anticipated before the pitch was thrown, much like Middlebrooks did.

Tommy Kahnle's over-reliance on one pitch puts him in danger

Throwing your best pitch most often is a good thing, but throwing it almost exclusively, especially when it's a change-up, is really hard to defend. Kahnle threw seven pitches on Friday, and every single one of them was a change-up. When it's located, the change-up is really hard to hit, but what if a mistake is made?

In most cases, a mistake with the change-up can be covered up because of the speed differential between that pitch and another. In Kahnle's case, when he's only throwing a change-up, wouldn't it be easier to hit a mistake? Hitters can simply sit on the change-up and wait for a mistake. He's bound to make one eventually.

Perhaps if Kahnle was throwing a lot of a secondary pitch he doesn't normally lean on, this would be a fine approach, but Kahnle throws his change-up 85.6 percent of the time per Baseball Savant. He has thrown 886 change-ups and 149 non-change-ups. That's a massive discrepancy, and one large enough for the opposition to simply sit on his change-up and wait for a mistake.

Middlebrooks predicted Kahnle would make a mistake with practically the only pitch he throws. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to predict that when Kahnle really only throws one pitch, that's a problem.

Tigers are in tough spot with Tommy Kahnle

Kahnle has been a reliable late-game reliever for a while, and I thought signing him was a smart move for the Tigers to have made. He had a 1.77 ERA at the end of June, proving to be arguably the most important member of the Tigers' bullpen, but the script has flipped ever since.

Kahnle has a 7.90 ERA in 32 appearances since the start of July. He's pitched pretty well in September prior to Friday's outing, but for the majority of the last three months, Kahnle has been as unreliable as anyone in an underperforming Tigers bullpen. Trusting him late in games isn't something Tigers fans are exactly comfortable with, and Friday's game showed exactly why.

While Kahnle has struggled, who hasn't in this Tigers' bullpen? Ideally, Detroit would use Kahnle in low-leverage spots if he'd even make the postseason roster at all, but outside of Kyle Finnegan, who do you really trust late in games? Will Vest has struggled, and there isn't really another late-game right-hander. The Tigers might have no choice but to stick with Kahnle and hope for the best, and that's a rough spot to be in.