We've reached the final weekend of the 2025 MLB regular season. Each team has just two games remaining out of the 162-game sprint, and thanks to an unexpectedly bonkers September, several postseason races are still ongoing. For much of September, it's felt that the 12 postseason teams have been decided, but now, several spots are up in the air.
Both the AL East and AL Central are completely deadlocked. The same can be said about the third Wild Card spot in the NL. The third spot in the AL is still far from being decided. To sum up, there's still a lot to figure out despite only two games on the calendar.
With that in mind, here's a look at where magic numbers, tiebreakers, and playoff scenarios stand on the final Saturday of the regular season.
MLB postseason update: Sep. 27
- MLB postseason: Which teams have clinched postseason spots?
- MLB magic numbers: Which teams still have something to play for?
- MLB tiebreakers: Which teams control their own destiny in the final weekend?
- MLB postseason scenarios: What has to happen for each team to clinch?
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MLB postseason: Which teams have clinched postseason spots?
Toronto Blue Jays
They're in, but vibes aren't nearly as good as they were just a week and a half ago. During the last 10 days, the Toronto Blue Jays went on a skid that saw them lose six of seven, allowing the New York Yankees to even up the AL East. Toronto has won each of its last two games, and they're in regardless, but what seemed like a formality not too long ago is now very much up in the air when it comes to clinching the division and the No. 1 seed in the AL.
New York Yankees
They've clinched, and the vibes are a whole lot better than they were. New York Yankees fans have been frustrated all year, but at the end of the day, the odds of them winning the division and earning the No. 1 seed in the AL are very real. Even if they miss out on the division, they're entering the playoffs playing some of their best baseball of the season.
Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners are MLB's hottest team right now, as even following Friday's loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers, they've won 17 of 19. This hot streak not only catapulted them to an AL West title, but they've earned one of the two first-round byes as well. The Mariners have as well-rounded a roster as any team in the league, and are playing like it at the most important time.
Boston Red Sox
The month of September hasn't been kind to the Boston Red Sox, and who knows how deep into October they'd play if Roman Anthony cannot suit up in the Wild Card Series, but thanks to Ceddanne Rafaela's walk-off hit, they're in. The Red Sox have clinched a Wild Card spot, and are on the verge of earning the No. 5 seed.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers have lost four of their last five games, but they were the first team to clinch a postseason berth, have won their division, and are just one win away from locking up the No. 1 seed in the AL. They might be scuffling a bit right now, but they're still one of, if not the team to beat in the NL.
Philadelphia Phillies
The odds of the Philadelphia Phillies catching the Brewers for the No. 1 seed are slim, but they were the first team to clinch their respective division title and have sewn up a first-round bye. They'll have home-field advantage at least in the NLDS, and with the roster they have, watch out.
Los Angeles Dodgers
It hasn't always been pretty, but the Los Angeles Dodgers won yet another NL West title and have locked up the No. 3 seed in the NL. They'll have to play in the Wild Card Series, and their bullpen is full of question marks, but this roster is still terrifying.
Chicago Cubs
One Chicago Cubs win or one San Diego Padres loss ensures that the Wild Card Series will take place at Wrigley Field. No, the Cubs did not win the division, but earning the No. 4 seed and the ability to host the Wild Card Series isn't a bad consolation prize. They're on the verge of accomplishing that.
San Diego Padres
The San Diego Padres are in, and are one of the very few teams with just about nothing to play for. They're almost certainly going to be on the road in the Wild Card Series and came up short in their NL West chase. With five wins in their last six games, the Padres are ending their regular season on a strong note.
MLB magic numbers: Which teams still have something to play for?
Figuring out a magic number is quite simple. The formula to do so is as follows, according to MLB.com:
- Games remaining +1 - (Losses by second place team - losses by first place team)
With only two games to go in the regular season, the magic numbers couldn't be much easier to calculate.
AL East
What once seemed like a foregone conclusion is now anything but. The Blue Jays have allowed the Yankees back into the race completely, and now, with the division tied, one mistake could dictate who wins this division.
Team | Record | Magic Number |
|---|---|---|
Toronto Blue Jays | 92-68 | 2 |
New York Yankees | 92-68 | 3 |
The teams are tied, meaning the tiebreaker could come into play. With a season series win, the Blue Jays are the team that controls its own destiny - for now. With any combination of two Jays wins and/or two Yankees losses, Toronto wins the AL East.
AL Central
Much like the AL East - even more so - the AL Central appeared to be all but locked up until it wasn't. A monumental collapse by the Detroit Tigers in September has opened the door for the Cleveland Guardians to win the division.
Team | Record | Magic Number |
|---|---|---|
Cleveland Guardians | 86-74 | 2 |
Detroit Tigers | 86-74 | 3 |
It's the exact same scenario as the AL East. The Guardians and Tigers are tied, but Cleveland is the team that controls the tiebreaker. If they finish tied, the Guardians win the division. The Tigers will need any combination of three wins and Guardians losses. With only three games to go, winning the division will be tough, but not impossible.
AL Wild Card
The Red Sox clinched a Wild Card spot on Friday, leaving one spot open in a race involving three teams. Both the Tigers and Guardians are hoping to win the AL Central, but knowing the Wild Card is there as a fallback is a nice position to be in. As for the Houston Astros, the third Wild Card spot is their only hope, putting them in a bleak spot, especially given the fact that they're on the outside looking in.
Team | Record | Magic Number |
|---|---|---|
Detroit Tigers | 86-74 | 1 |
Houston Astros | 85-75 | 4 |
The Tigers and Guardians are tied for the third Wild Card spot, but Cleveland has the tiebreaker, so for this, let's assume they're in as the Central winner, and it comes down to Detroit and Houston for the final Wild Card spot. Detroit's Magic Number to get in over Houston is at one despite the Astros only being one game back record-wise.
The reason for that has to do with tiebreakers. The Tigers (and Guardians for that matter) own the tiebreaker over Houston, meaning they really face a two-game deficit with two to play. This means any Houston loss or win from the Tigers OR Guardians eliminates the Astros. They're alive, but barely.
NL Wild Card
The New York Mets controlled their own fate entering Friday's action, but things have changed since. The Mets lost and the Cincinnati Reds won, putting the Reds into that No. 3 spot thanks to the tiebreaker. There's still time, but the Reds control their own destiny even with the teams now tied record-wise
Team | Record | Magic Number |
|---|---|---|
Cincinnati Reds | 82-78 | 2 |
New York Mets | 82-78 | 3 |
Any combination of two Reds wins and/or Mets losses would give Cincinnati the third spot. The Mets are still alive, but they'd need a combination of three wins and/or Reds losses. With only two games to play, their path is obviously tougher.
MLB tiebreakers: Which teams control their own destiny in the final weekend?
With so many close races and the abolition of Game 163s, tiebreakers could dictate which teams get in and which miss out.
AL East
The AL East is tied, but thanks to their 8-5 regular season record against the Yankees, the Blue Jays control the tiebreaker. They're the team in control of its destiny.
AL East tiebreaker advantage: Blue Jays over Yankees
AL Central
Like the AL East, the AL Central is tied, but after beating the Tigers five times in six tries over the last couple of weeks, the Guardians have the tiebreaker. They won the season series against Detroit 8-5.
AL Central tiebreaker advantage: Guardians over Tigers
AL Wild Card
There are essentially three teams in the AL Wild Card race vying for two postseason spots. One of the Central teams will win the division, leaving the other one for the Wild Card. Both the Guardians (4-2 vs. HOU) and Tigers (4-2 vs. HOU) have the tiebreaker against the Astros, putting them in an ideal position to earn a Wild Card spot even if they don't win the division.
AL Wild Card tiebreaker: Guardians and Tigers over Astros
NL Wild Card
The Diamondbacks are out, meaning the NL Wild Card race is between the Reds and Mets. Thanks to their 4-2 record against New York in the regular season, the Reds are in the driver's seat.
NL Wild Card tiebreaker: Reds over Mets
MLB postseason scenarios: What has to happen for each team to clinch?
Toronto Blue Jays
As mentioned above, the Blue Jays have the tiebreaker over the Yankees, meaning they control their own destiny. Their path to clinching the AL East, knowing they have the tiebreaker, is actually quite simple.
Blue Jays win AL East if:
- Blue Jays win final two games
- Blue Jays win one game AND Yankees lose one game
- Yankees lose final two games
Any combination of two Blue Jays wins and/or Yankees losses gets Toronto the division.
New York Yankees
The Yankees are tied with Toronto, but with the Jays having the tiebreaker, New York's path to winning the division is a lot tougher.
Yankees win AL East if:
- Yankees win final two games AND Blue Jays lose at least one game
- Yankees win one game AND Blue Jays lose twice
The Yankees will need to take care of business on their side AND rely on some luck to win it. Their odds aren't zero, but they're slim right now.
Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians have steamrolled their way to tying the Tigers in the AL Central and earning the tiebreaker advantage over Detroit. Thus, the AL Central runs through Cleveland in the final weekend of the regular season.
Guardians win AL Central if:
- Guardians win final two games
- Guardians win one game AND Tigers lose one game
- Tigers lose final two games
Any combination of two Cleveland wins and/or Detroit losses ensures Cleveland wins the AL Central.
As for the Wild Card, the Guardians' path is crystal clear.
Guardians clinch Wild Card berth if:
- Guardians win one game
- Astros lose one game
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers are in the exact same position as the Yankees with two games to go. A lot will have to go right for them to win the division.
Tigers win AL Central if:
- Tigers win final two games AND Guardians lose at least one game
- Tigers win one game AND Guardians lose twice
Again, the odds aren't zero, but they aren't in Detroit's favor to win the AL Central.
The AL Central is out of their complete control, but the Wild Card is well within their grasp. They're in the exact same position as Cleveland on that front.
Tigers clinch Wild Card berth if:
- Tigers win one game
- Astros lose one game
Houston Astros
The Astros are alive, but barely. They'll need more to go right for themselves to earn a Wild Card berth than any other team currently in the postseason race.
Astros clinch Wild Card berth if:
- Astros win final two games AND one of Guardians OR Tigers lose final two games
There's only one path for Houston. They have to win out and hope that at least one of Cleveland or Detroit loses out. It's extremely unlikely that these things happen, but hey, never say never.
Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds' odds changed drastically overnight thanks to Friday's results and their tiebreaker advantage over the Mets. Now, their path to their first postseason appearance in a full 162-game season since 2013 (excluding 2020) is quite clear.
Reds clinch Wild Card berth if:
- Reds win final two games
- Reds win one game AND Mets lose one game
- Mets lose final two games
The Reds control their own destiny. If they do as well as or better than the Mets over the final two games, they're in, and New York is going home.
New York Mets
The Mets remain alive even after Friday's crushing loss, but they no longer control their own destiny. They'll need to take care of business on their side while relying on the Brewers for some help against Cincinnati.
Mets clinch Wild Card berth if:
- Mets win final two games AND Reds lose at least one game
- Mets win one game AND Reds lose twice
Again, they're still very much alive, but they're going to need help.