Spring Training is a time for boundless optimism. Every team begins a new with a 0-0 record and a clean slate, and it's all too easy to get lost thinking about the sense of possibility that a new season brings: breakout years, better health, you name it.
And yet, it's a cold, hard fact that only one team will be holding the Commissioner's Trophy at season's end. That means that 29 others will fall short of their ultimate goal, that this year will not, in fact, be the year. It's all too easy to focus on what will go right with your favorite team, but it's also worth thinking about what could go wrong.
So we've taken the 10 teams with the shortest World Series odds (courtesy of FanDuel) and tried to identify the exhaust port in their Death Star, the one flaw that could trip up their title hopes.
MLB betting favorites and their (potentially) fatal flaws
- Los Angeles Dodgers (+210)
- New York Yankees (+1100)
- Seattle Mariners (+1200)
- New York Mets (+1300)
- Philadelphia Phillies (+1500)
- Boston Red Sox (+1600)
- Toronto Blue Jays (+1600)
- Chicago Cubs (+1700)
- Atlanta Braves (+1800)
- Baltimore Orioles (+2000)
Los Angeles Dodgers (+210)
Fatal flaw: Pitching health
"Fatal" here is extremely relative. This just in: The Los Angeles Dodgers, fresh off winning back-to-back World Series titles, are going to be very good once again. It's hard to imagine their offense not being among the sport's best with Kyle Tucker in tow to offset any age-related regression from Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, and the starting rotation goes seven or eight deep on paper.
Of course, "on paper" is the operative phrase there. Because while this Dodgers pitching staff is long on star power, it's also long on injury risk. Blake Snell has thrown more than 130 innings just twice in his 10-year MLB career, and he's already ramping up slowly after the workload he took on down the stretch last season. Tyler Glasnow has only cracked the 130 mark once, with Tommy John surgery in his rearview and shoulder inflammation that hampered him in 2025. Shohei Ohtani has undergone major elbow reconstruction twice in the Majors. Roki Sasaki missed more than four months of his rookie year with a shoulder impingement.
And on and on and on. Even the team's depth, guys like River Ryan and Gavin Stone, missed all of last season due to major surgeries. The Dodgers have assembled more talent than any other team in baseball. The hope for the rest of the league is that not all of it is still standing by the time we get to October.
New York Yankees (+1100)
Fatal flaw: Pitching depth
The Yankees are currently slated to start the season with Will Warren, Ryan Weathers and Luis Gil as their third, fourth and fifth starters. That's not ideal for a team with World Series-or-bust expectations, even as someone who is relatively high on Warren and Weathers taking steps foward this season.
We know this is a weakness because it's something Brian Cashman tried to address over the winter, only to strike out on potential deals for more established arms like Freddy Peralta and Edward Cabrera. Maybe Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon and Clarke Schmidt will all be back healthy and effective by the end of the year, but that's a big if, and you still need to get to the end of the year first.
The picture is largely the same in the bullpen, which lost Luke Weaver and Devin Williams and didn't do much of anything to replace them. Given all the uncertainty involved with this group, it would be great if New York had managed to bring in at least one more known quantity this offseason.
Seattle Mariners (+1200)
Fatal flaw: The bottom of the order
Seattle's lack of viable MLB-ready rotation depth beyond its starry top five is a bit concerning (seriously, after Emerson Hancock things more or less fall off a cliff), but that seems less like a fatal flaw and more like a cause for a moderate amount of concern. More pressing is the team's offense, which was more top-heavy than the overall numbers would suggest last season.
Cal Raleigh is a stud, even if he doesn't hit 60 homers again. So, too, is Julio Rodriguez. The bottom half of this order could be a bit rough, though, with J.P. Crawford at short, Cole Young (most likely) at second, Dominic Canzone or Victor Robles in right and some sort of Luke Raley/Rob Refsnyder platoon at the DH spot. Seattle is relying a lot on Josh Naylor and Randy Arozarena continuing to produce at 2025 levels; if either one takes a step back — hardly out of the question — we could have a problem here.
New York Mets (+1300)
Fatal flaw: Getting on base
Mets fans have been all worked up about the team's pitching situation since last season ended, but I'm actually pretty bullish on things there: Peralta is huge as a stabilizing force, Sean Manaea seems primed for a bounce-back season and there's both upside and floor that most teams would envy.
I have a bone to pick with this lineup, though. It seems odd on the surface to complain about on-base skills with a team that employs Juan Soto, but beyond him, this offense could be full of guys who struggle to get or keep rallies going. The projection system at FanGraphs currently has only four regulars (Soto, Francisco Lindor, Bo Bichette and Jorge Polanco) with an OBP north of .320. This team will be giving a lot of at-bats to guys like Brett Baty, Marcus Semien, Luis Robert Jr., Mark Vientos and Francisco Alvarez, as well as a rookie in Carson Benge who can hardly be expected to run a plus hit tool from jump. This could be a very boom-or-bust outfit, which could make life difficult in October.
Philadelphia Phillies (+1500)
Fatal flaw: The outfield
I'm also slightly queasy about the starting rotation — it's not hard to imagine a world in which Zack Wheeler doesn't bounce back from thoracic outlet syndrome, Aaron Nola continues to decline and Andrew Painter isn't ready for his MLB close-up — but come on: Philly's most glaring weakness last season was its outfield situation, and the only positive news on that front over the winter was telling Nick Castellanos to take a hike.
It's not all doom and gloom. New right fielder Adolis Garcia is a decent rebound candidate in a far better park and lineup environment than he enjoyed over the last couple years in Texas, and top prospect Justin Crawford is showing promising signs in spring. But relying on a declining veteran and a rookie who hit the ball into the ground at alarming rates in the Minors hardly seems like a recipe for success for a team with title ambitions. Only six teams posted an outfield wRC+ worse than the Phillies last year, and it's not hard to see that happening again.
Boston Red Sox (+1600)
Fatal flaw: A lack of pop
You can talk yourself into being bullish on Boston's offense this year — a full year of Roman Anthony and Wilyer Abreu here, a Caleb Durbin breakout there — but I worry that a lack of difference-making power could limit the Red Sox ceiling.
This was already a bit of a problem in 2025, when the team ranked 15th in homers and 10th in isolated power (the gap between slugging percentage and batting average). The addition of Willson Contreras certainly helps there, especially in Fenway Park, as will having Anthony around for 162 games (knock on wood). But that's offset a bit by the loss of Alex Bregman, and there simply aren't a ton of hitters in this lineup who do real damage on contact. And this is all assuming that Trevor Story more or less repeats what he did last year, rather than reverting back to his disastrous 2023 and 2024 form.
Toronto Blue Jays (+1600)
Fatal flaw: Does Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have a running mate?
Toronto lost Bichette in free agency and fell agonizingly short of landing Kyle Tucker. Anthony Santander, their big free-agent splash last offseason, is out for 5-6 months due to shoulder surgery. It's hard to feel too concerned about a lineup that was great pretty much from top to bottom last season, and yet ... well, building an elite offense that's more than the sum of its parts is hard to do once — let alone twice.
George Springer had a career year at 35; what are the odds he reaches those MVP heights again at 36? Can pleasant surprises like Addison Barger, Ernie Clement and Nathan Lukes repeat last season's production? The whole point of having star players is that they're projectable year over year. Toronto is very much relying on its role players excelling for a second year in a row, and that's a risky bet.
Chicago Cubs (+1700)
Fatal flaw: An extremely high-variance rotation
It's not that I don't like Chicago's rotation. On the contrary: Cade Horton is the truth, and Edward Cabrera could very well be on his way to stardom. It's just that the Cubs' starting pitching feels very boom-or-bust entering the season.
Horton was sensational as a rookie, but we know how hard it is for young players to stay one step ahead of the league. Matthew Boyd was one of the feel-good stories of the season, but he'd thrown just 263 innings combined from 2020-2024 before tossing 179.2 last year. Cabrera comes with command and health questions, despite his big step forward in 2025. Shota Imanaga was so bad down the stretch that the Cubs opted against picking up the option on his contract.
There's a chance that all of the names above are good or better this year, but there's also a chance that one or more of them turn pear-shaped. Which way that breaks will likely determine the fate of a Cubs team that we know will hit.
Atlanta Braves (+1800)
Fatal flaw: Run prevention
Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep are already on the shelf for months with elbow issues. Reynaldo Lopez basically all of last year due to shoulder surgery. Spencer Strider didn't look like himself in his return from Tommy John, and Atlanta's lack of transparency around him this spring has been ... concerning, to say the least.
The Braves offense should bounce back after a frustrating 2025 season, but it's safe to say that the vibes are not great around this pitching staff right now. Even if Chris Sale stays healthy and Atlanta is able to cobble things together behind him with the likes of Bryce Elder, Grant Holmes and Joey Wentz, there are real bullpen questions after the one-two punch of Raisel Iglesias and Robert Suarez. The Braves just straight-up might not have enough bullets to make it through 162 games.
Baltimore Orioles (+2000)
Fatal flaw: Frontline pitching
The Orioles, on the other hand, have no shortage of options to which they can hand the ball, especially with the addition of Chris Bassitt. But is there a true No. 1 (or even No. 2) starter on this team as currently constituted?
I know how good Trevor Rogers was, but he was also tremendously lucky, and nothing in his career to date (3.83 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) or his performance in the Minors last year suggests he's anything close to that caliber of pitcher. If he reverts back to something close to those numbers, who's the anchor of this staff? Kyle Bradish, who has electric stuff but has thrown more than 120 innings in a season exactly once in his pro career?
Baltimore won't have a bad rotation. But I do question the ceiling here a bit, which could come back to haunt them come playoff time.