As we enter an MLB offseason that already featured a star-studded trade market — Tarik Skubal to Joe Ryan, Jarren Duran to Adley Rutschman — another big name might be about to enter the chat. As the league's GM Meetings roll on in Las Vegas, The Athletic's Dan Hayes delivered a bombshell report early Wednesday morning: Despite turning down a potential deal at this year's trade deadline, Minnesota Twins outfielder Byron Buxton "wants to play for a winner and may reconsider his stance for certain clubs if the Twins continue breaking up their roster".
Buxton, whom the team took No. 2 overall in the 2012 MLB Draft, holds a full no-trade clause as part of the seven-year, $100 million extension that kicked in ahead of the 2022 season. If he's willing to waive that clause, there would figure to be a ton of interest in a 31-year-old who slashed .264/.327/.551 this year and remains an elite athlete and an elite defensive center fielder.
Not all of those teams have an equal shot at actually landing him, though. Any suitors would have to not only convince Buxton to leave the only professional organization he's ever known, but also have enough pieces Minnesota would want in return to make a deal worth their while. While the Twins will field plenty of calls, we can narrow the field down to just a select few favorites.
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No chance
Atlanta Braves
Braves fans have been waiting for a chance to bring the Baxley, Ga., native home for years now, but they shouldn't get their hopes up. For starters, where is Buxton going to play in an outfield that already features Michael Harris II in center, Ronald Acuña Jr. in right and Jurickson Profar in left? Add in the fact that Atlanta has one of the thinner farm systems in the sport right now, and a Buxton trade feels like a long shot.
Boston Red Sox
Boston is trying to get rid of an outfielder this winter, not add another one. Red Sox fans might dream of a Jarren Duran for Buxton swap, but why would the rebuilding Twins be interested in a 29-year-old outfielder? And even if they were, Buxton's arrival would necessitate turning Ceddanne Rafaela into a bench player. Craig Breslow's efforts should be directed elsewhere.
Houston Astros
Houston could desperately use some more athleticism and an upgrade in center field, but this might be the single worst farm system in baseball this side of Anaheim. It's really hard to figure out how the Astros could win a bidding war for Buxton's services, even if Jim Crane were willing to take on another nine-figure contract.
The dark horses
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore's farm system isn't quite what it used to be, but it's still far from barren. And the O's should be desperate to try and maximize the time they have left before Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson hit free agency. Buxton would give this team a major boost as they move on from Cedric Mullins, and a formidable outfield around young guys like Colton Cowser and Dylan Beavers. Don't count them out.
Cincinnati Reds
How committed should Cincy be to TJ Friedl in center field? If the Reds want to upgrade around their playoff-ready pitching staff, a deal for Buxton would do just that, and there are plenty of young pieces here that should pique Minnesota's interest. The main question is whether one of baseball's smallest markets would be willing to take on that kind of money.
Kansas City Royals
Much has been made of the Royals' desperate need for more punch in the outfield, and while that that's most directed toward the corners, it's not like center field is doing great either. Bobby Witt Jr. needs and deserves a running mate; Buxton might be the most viable path Kansas City has to impact offensive talent this winter.
San Francisco Giants
Giants fans are no doubt setting their sights a little higher (Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger, perhaps?), but Buxton wouldn't be a bad consolation prize. It might require shifting Jung Hoo Lee, but then again, right field at Oracle Park also requires a lot of athleticism to navigate. San Francisco is desperate to get back to the postseason, and if they can't hit it big in free agency, they need to find more offense on the trade market.
The favorites
Los Angeles Dodgers
Was there any doubt? The Dodgers deserve to be listed among the favorites on basically every one of these lists. Of course, it also helps that they figure to be in the market for outfield help this winter, especially with Tommy Edman's uncertain health and Andy Pages' miserable postseason at the plate. Buxton could either play center or right in Los Angeles, all while helping to lengthen the bottom of an already loaded lineup.
There's reason to be skeptical of the Dodgers' willingness to pay up for Tucker in free agency, and a reunion with Bellinger doesn't feel particularly likely. After that, what's plan C in this market? Buxton's sketchy health track record is a red flag, but we know what his ceiling is when he's consistently on the field. Los Angeles is in the business of accumulating as much elite talent as possible, and it doesn't get much more tantalizing than Buxton.
New York Mets
Pitching is the No. 1 priority for New York this winter, but the team's instability in center field was a bugagoo all season long. Does Buxton, given his age and price tag and injury history, feel like the kind of investment David Stearns would be excited to make? Not really, no. But he'd be the best pure center fielder available either via free agency or trade, and we know that the Mets' deep farm system has more than enough ammunition to get a deal done. In terms of ability and need, New York has to be at or near the top of the list.
New York Yankees
Trent Grisham seems likely to decline his qualifying offer and hit free agency this winter, meaning the Yankees are back in the market for a center fielder. Jasson Dominguez or Spencer Jones would likely be overstretched in that sort of everyday role at a premium position, while Aaron Judge is aging out of playing center. Heck, even Cody Bellinger, while certainly capable, is far less valuable as a center fielder than he was in a corner, before we even consider the fact that his next contract could pay him into his late 30s.
Buxton is the one true center fielder potentially available who's also a game-changer at the plate. The Yankees farm system is a bit uneven, but the pitching gains they saw should give them enough to entice Minnesota if they do decide to listen to offers.
Philadelphia Phillies
Even if top prospect Justin Crawford hits the ground running on Opening Day, Philly needs outfield help in a serious way. They already hooked up with Minnesota on a deal for star closer Jhoan Duran ahead of last year's deadline, so why not go back to the well for Buxton?
Landing Buxton would allow Brandon Marsh to stay in left while Crawford plays right. Buxton would be an ideal fit, and he would also slot right into the timeline that guys like Bryce Harper and Trea Turner are also on without tying Philly down for years to come.