Why am I so optimistic and excited about the 2026 MLB season? Well, we’ve experienced so many incredible moments the last few years, ranging from Shohei Ohtani’s two–way greatness to Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh both joining the 60–home run club, that it feels inevitable we’ll see even more history set this year. Predicting who will do what, though, is a fun exercise in itself, especially when the likes of Ohtani or Paul Skenes are involved.
When Lil Wayne released “Kobe Bryant” amid the Los Angeles Lakers superstar’s late 2000s resurgence, he opted to include samples of then–active NBA players praising the future Hall of Famer. Perhaps the line that always stuck with me was veteran guard Mikael Pietrus, who was asked why he believed Bryant was the best player in the league.
“Because you never know what you’re gonna get,” Pietrus explained. The same can be said of MLB ahead of Opening Day.
Gunnar Henderson will join the 40–40 club
No one said that any of these achievements were going to be easy, and Henderson faces a difficult road to becoming the 40–40 club’s seventh member. Last year marked Henderson’s first 30–stolen base campaign, though his home runs dipped from 37 to 17. If he’s never been a 30–30 player thus far, why should we be so optimistic about him going above and beyond?
Easy: Henderson has already established himself as a perennial MVP candidate, and this is the natural next step. Even with his reduced power last year, Henderson still had 34 doubles, and he’ll have added support via Pete Alonso’s arrival. Although if I’m skeptical the Orioles make the postseason, I still suggest buying high on Henderson.
Paul Skenes wins the Cy Young with a losing record
We nearly saw Skenes accomplish this last year, when he finished 10–10 and became the first starting pitcher to win the Cy Young with a .500 or worse record; Bruce Sutter (6–6 in 1979) and Eric Gagné (2–3 in 2003) did so as closers. Skenes certainly did his part, finishing his sophomore season with a 1.97 ERA and 7.7 bWAR in nearly 190 innings.
To their credit, the Pirates were aggressive in the offseason — at least, by their standards — and upgraded their lineup with Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn, and Marcell Ozuna. With Skenes’ luck, though, he’ll finish 8–10 with a sparkling 2.10 ERA, while teammate Mitch Keller will go 10–6 before being traded at the deadline. Such is life when you’re an elite player on a woeful franchise.
Shohei Ohtani joins rare company with a third 50–home run season
Pop quiz: Who are the five players with at least three 50–home run seasons? In fairness, the five should be pretty easy: Babe Ruth, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Alex Rodriguez, and Aaron Judge. Incredibly, Barry Bonds only topped 50 once, during his 73–homer season in 2001, and the previous home run king, Hank Aaron, never did so at all.
Even if we start seeing teams treat Ohtani the way they once did Bonds and decide they’d rather walk him than pitch to him, we all can agree that there’s no stopping the four–time MVP. Ohtani has hit 223 home runs in the last five seasons, which is remarkable in itself. Keep in mind, there are only 28 active players with at least 223 homers in their careers. Suddenly, this doesn’t sound so unrealistic, does it?
The Nationals and Rockies both lose 110+ games
I’m not sure whether it’s a good thing that I expect the Nationals and Rockies to both be terrible without tanking. For whatever reason, it feels like the worst teams nowadays are, put simply, worse than we’ve seen in decades. It was only two years ago that the White Sox lost an MLB–record 121 games, and the Rockies nearly surpassed them with last year’s 43–119 finish.
The Rockies are still built to lose, and the Nationals aren’t much better, to the point where I would be shocked if these two even combined for 110 victories. We’ve only seen two instances of two teams losing at least 110 games in the same season: the Diamondbacks and Orioles in 2021, and the Expos and Padres in 1969. At least the latter two had the excuse of being expansion teams playing their first season. No such luck with the Rockies nor Nationals.
Cody Bellinger becomes the third player to win the MVP in both leagues
This is perhaps the boldest take on this list, but hear me out. Bellinger is going to hit in a Yankees lineup with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Jazz Chisholm Jr., among others. Teams are going to need to pitch to him in a way that they can’t with Judge, and that they might not want to do with Stanton, especially if he’s healthy and amid a power surge.
I believe in Bellinger, especially with how comfortable he looked during his first season with the Yankees. He has a swing built for Yankee Stadium, and he finished last year with 29 home runs and 98 RBIs. If he can surpass 40 and 120, respectively, then winning the MVP isn’t so unrealistic, though he’ll likely be competing for votes with Judge.
Ohtani and Frank Robinson are the only players to win the MVP in both leagues. I’m putting my cards on the table and saying Bellinger joins them within the next three years, and I think this proves to be the season.
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