We're still waiting on the next big shoe to drop in this MLB offseason, but we did get a piece of news: The Philadelphia Phillies are reportedly set to sign outfielder Adolis Garcia to a one-year, $10 million deal, ostensibly to replace Nick Castellanos in right field. A year after Dave Dombrowski was raked over the coals for signing Max Kepler on the cheap, he appears to have gone back to the well, which is tremendously funny if nothing else.
But while Garcia might not move the needle much on his own, this move could have an outsized impact on one of the biggest names on the market: Cody Bellinger. Is Philly, such a perfect fit on paper, still in the market for Bellinger? And if they aren't, should Bellinger start casting a suspicious eye at agent Scott Boras?
What are Cody Bellinger's options?
- Adolis Garcia deal removes Phillies as obvious Cody Bellinger fit
- Why Scott Boras is playing a dangerous game
- Which teams will wait out Cody Bellinger's free agency?
Adolis Garcia deal removes Phillies as obvious Cody Bellinger fit
Technically, the Phillies could still use Bellinger. Garcia replaces Castellanos in right, and Brandon Marsh figures to draw everyday duty in left, but that still leaves a gaping hole in center field desperate to be filled. Bellinger isn't as valuable a defender in center as he is in a corner, but he can still play the position just fine for now, and he would instantly elevate Philly's offensive ceiling over the likes of Johan Rojas.
It's just awfully hard to see it at this point. Dombrowski just handed $150 million to Kyle Schwarber at $30 million a year, plus $10 million more to Garcia for 2026. That's $40 million onto next year's payroll, and there are still needs at catcher and at the back end of both the rotation and the bullpen. Given all the money he's already spent and what he still needs to accomplish, does it really seem likely that Dombrowski will be able to find $25 million or so more to hand Bellinger? It would, at the very least, rule out the possibility of a JT Realmuto reunion, which feels like a hard pill to swallow.
Of course, the Phillies would no doubt love to get back in if Bellinger's market were to bottom out entirely. And for as valuable as he was to the Yankees last year, that gets more and more likely — both because of Bellinger's unique profile and because of how his agent, Scott Boras, has handled his free agency so far.
Why Scott Boras is playing a dangerous game
Boras is nothing if not patient; year after year, he's happy to string out a client's free agency for as long as it takes to meet the price he expects. In theory, at least, it's sound process: The longer you wait, the fewer options there are for teams that strike out elsewhere, the greater the desperation for the lone life boat left.
The problem, though, is that sometimes you overshoot. If your self-evaluation doesn't come close to matching up with front offices around the league, then those front offices will simply choose to move on, leaving you without any leverage — and with a ticking clock to find your client a team before Opening Day.
Season | Cody Bellinger's OPS+ |
|---|---|
2017 | 143 |
2018 | 120 |
2019 | 167 |
2020 | 112 |
2021 | 44 |
2022 | 81 |
2023 | 139 |
2024 | 111 |
2025 | 125 |
In his media appearances at both the GM Meetings and the Winter Meetings, he's repeatedly brought up Bellinger's performance in 2025 with the Yankees and 2023 with the Cubs but the MVP Award he won with the Dodgers way back in 2019. The message is clear: Bellinger wants to be paid at his ceiling.
Unfortunately for both he and his agent, there are a whole lot of other years sprinkled in there as well, and they've been ... less great. It was just 12 months or so ago that the Cubs were so desperate to avoid paying Bellinger $25 million that they salary-dumped him to New York for the low, low price of Cody Poteet. His versatility and athleticism aren't in question, but his bat very much is; his ability to make lots of contact, and for most of that contact to come via pulled fly balls, made him a dream fit at Yankee Stadium, but his contact profile is awfully sketchy. He simply doesn't hit the ball very hard, which gives him a terrifyingly low floor if conditions aren't ideal.
Which teams will wait out Cody Bellinger's free agency?
He's not a slam-dunk case, is what we're saying; this isn't a Kyle Tucker situation, where you sign the talent and worry about fit later. Everything has to line up perfectly for Bellinger to make sense at $25 million a year, and one look at the remaining market shows that the perfect fit might not exist.
New York Yankees
If Boras' tactics do work, the Yankees would be the team to cave. New York needs to add at least one outfielder even with Trent Grisham back in the fold, and their home ballpark is tailor-made for a lefty who lofts the ball to right as often as Bellinger does. (There's a reason why his .909 home OPS was so much better than his .715 road mark.)
Unfortunately for Bellinger and Boras, though, the Yankees don't seem desperate for a reunion. New York would no doubt welcome him back, of course, but all indications right now are that it would have to be within the price range they're comfortable with. This isn't like Juan Soto, where Hal Steinbrenner steps in and ups the bidding until the player tells him no. Unless Brian Cashman is bluffing, it sure seems like New York is fine letting Bellinger move on, and that takes a big bite out of Boras' leverage.
New York Mets
Again, the need is certainly there: The Mets were lacking a true center fielder coming into the offseason, and now left field is also a need after David Stearns dumped Brandon Nimmo's contract onto the Rangers in exchange for Marcus Semien. But if Stearns was unwilling to come even close to $30 million a year for Pete Alonso, a franchise icon and extremely valuable middle-of-the-order bat, what makes anyone think he'd do it for an equally risky bet in Bellinger?
Sure, New York wants to improve run prevention next season, and Bellinger can go get it in the outfield. Citi Field is a particularly bad fit for his bad, though, and he'll be 31 in July. He's not the sort of hitter the Mets need, even at his best, and the odds are against the best version of Bellinger showing up in Queens.
San Francisco Giants
If Boras has hopes of developing a bidding war, he's going to need help from the Giants. It's hard to think of another big-market team as desperate to add both star power and some outfield help; Buster Posey is just itching to sign somebody, and there isn't San Francisco is staring at Starting Right Fielder Drew Gilbert for 2026 as things stand. That's not what you want.
The problem, again, is fit. Bellinger would be helpful in navigating the enormous outfield at Oracle Park, but San Francisco is where fly-ball hitters go to die. He might genuinely flirt with the Mendoza Line as a Giant, as all of the looping fly balls that became short-porch homers in New York would harmlessly settle into gloves. The Giants saw that movie up close during the nadir of his time with the rival Dodgers, and it's unlikely that they'd spend upwards of $150 million for the privilege.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Hey, the Dodgers do need another outfielder, and they don't seem to be particularly serious about a pursuit of Tucker at this point. Why not a reunion? Well, for the same reason they let him walk in the first place: Because he's a wildly uneven offensive player, one who is now about to enter the back half of his big-league career. Even for a franchise that loves to throw money around, it feels like L.A. would rather just trust what it already has or go for somebody like Harrison Bader or Luis Robert Jr.
And at that point ... that's pretty much it. The Cubs are about to lose Tucker, but they were desperate to get out of the Bellinger business just a year ago. The Padres, Astros and Tigers are cash-strapped to begin with and have bigger fish to fry. I'll believe the Reds and Pirates will hand out a nine-figure contract when I see it.
I just have no idea where the demand will come from that can get Bellinger to the contract he and Boras are expecting. It feels like the window should have been early, when everyone was bright-eyed, bushy-tailed and flush with cash to spend. The longer this goes, though, the clearer it becomes that Boras doesn't have a market to play off of itself, and you only have to ask past clients like Jordan Montgomery how that works out.