Ketel Marte and the Diamondbacks could still be dangerous in the NL West

The 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks were a borderline religious experience. 2024 Ketel Marte was a borderline religious experience. 2025 … didn’t really have an Arizona Diamondbacks-based religious experience. Sad. But 2026? This 452-foot home run is at least flirting with religiosity.

Marte sent that ball to the shadow realm, the exclamation point on his National League Player of the Week run that saw him bat .536 with a 1.563 OPS after a tepid start to the season, and it has everyone partying like it’s 2023. They have won nine of their last 10, have broken into the dance in the NL West, a three-person foxtrot that is going to take serious blood, sweat and tears to emerge from. Do the D-Backs have what it takes?

Can Marte and the Diamondbacks actually keep up in the NL West?

Probably not. Oh, what, you thought this was just going to be some positivity party where we all celebrate the plucky Arizona team and a resurgent Marte, the switch-hitting second baseman who everyone loves? Grow up, this is the real world. The Los Angeles Dodgers are batting Mookie freaking Betts cleanup because they can. The San Diego Padres have catabolized their entire farm system to build the greatest bullpen anyone has ever seen. This is war, not some kindergarten show and tell.

This is definitely a start, and the Marteissance is essential to running back their miracle 2023 World Series trip. Marte is a critical player for the D-Backs, with he and Corbin Carroll representing basically the only power-hitting on the roster. His start to the season was a major struggle, but the underlying batted-ball metrics suggested he was also one of the league’s unluckiest players. In terms of his hitter profile, peak Marte is kind of like a switch hitting Vladimir Guerrero Jr., power, sure, but also high average and low strikeout rates. Their main difference is Vladdy walks way more, but Marte has actually improved his walk numbers in recent years.

Ketel Marte getting back to 2024 form could be the starting point for another Arizona run

He’s also a really good defensive second baseman, and is on a shockingly-cheap contract relative to what he could have made on the open market. In fact, Arizona has managed to lock down both Carroll and Marte on what are basically hometown discounts — another great sign for a franchise trying to survive in the crushing heat of the NL West. Their pitching has also been better than expected this season, and while we all probably forgot about him, Corbin Burnes is tracking to return around the All-Star break. Ok, ok, things are happening here.

The question we have to answer for the D-Backs is simple: do they actually project as a team that can survive a brutal division and a seemingly brutal NL Wild Card situation? FanGraphs has them nursing a 49.6 percent chance to make the playoffs, right in the mud with the Phillies, Pirates, Cubs and Padres. Power-stans like myself will be concerned that they just don’t hit the ball hard enough down the lineup to continue this stretch, and a few of those teams they are likely to be scrapping with do. The Padres have invested in a high contact approach, though, and that has been conducive to winning in 2026 baseball. 

At the very least, I think the Diamondbacks will have a chance come September. It’s going to be a tall order, and while I doubt Marte will hit almost .600 for the rest of the season, anything resembling 2024 Ketel Marte is a major problem for other teams to solve. And if Burnes can return and bolster the rotation? I’m willing to be surprised. 

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