Kyle Schwarber's history-making homer might give the Phillies some pause

The Year of Kyle Schwarber continued in Philadelphia on Tuesday night, as the MVP candidate salted away another Phillies win over the New York Mets with a three-run homer in the bottom of the seventh inning.

But this wasn't just any home run. This was No. 50 on the year for Schwarber, making him just the second Phillie to ever reach that mark in a single season. The man he joins in franchise history? Former star first baseman Ryan Howard, who launched 58 en route to winning MVP honors back in 2006.

It's impossible to overstate the impact that Schwarber has had on this year's Phillies. In a year fraught with so much championship-or-bust expectation, and while so many of the core pieces around him in the lineup were either hurt, struggling or both, Schwarber has been the metronome, the one constant for everyone else to orient themselves around. It's not hard to imagine this season coming apart at the seams without him; instead, Philly is coasting to an NL East title, with another golden chance at a World Series given how wide open the league looks right now.

And yet, despite all of that, the Phillies are just a few weeks away from letting Schwarber hit unrestricted free agency, despite having ample opportunity to hand him a contract extension. What gives? How could they let such a crucial player, in the midst of a career year, walk — potentially to an arch rival?

Maybe all this panic will be for naught. Maybe Dave Dombrowski is simply biding his time, and Schwarber doesn't want to go anywhere else, and the two sides will hammer out a reunion after all. But from here, it sure seems like there's a disconnect. And if you'd like to know why, look no further than the former All-Star he just reached in the record books.

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Ryan Howard comps aren't doing Kyle Schwarber any favors ahead of free agency

Howard remains a deeply beloved Phillie, as well he should. He spent years as one of the most feared sluggers in the sport, averaging almost 45 homers a year from 2006-2011 while finishing top-10 in MVP voting every season and making three All-Star appearances. (Not to mention his part in helping lead the team to their most recent championship in 2008.)

But while he's a legend now, the end of his time with the team wasn't quite as kind. Howard more or less fell off a cliff in his 30s: He posted a 95 OPS+ and averaged -1.0 bWAR per season from 2012-2016, and the five-year, $125 million extension he signed when he was still hitting at an All-Star level quickly became an albatross. His underlying skills degraded just enough, and it caused his entire profile to collapse seemingly overnight.

Which isn't to say that Schwarber is destined for a similar fate on a similar timeline. His plate discipline is lightyears better than Howard's ever was, for starters. But it does serve as a cautionary tale about paying one-dimensional sluggers, especially at this point in their careers: Once the decline begins, it can happen in a hurry — and when it does, there's no other source of value to fall back on.

Schwarber doesn't play the field at this point, and he's a liability on the bases. If you're paying him $30 million a year through his mid-30s, you're doing it because he's among the best hitters in baseball right now. And he could well continue at that pace moving forward; if anything, he seems to just be getting better with age. But Father Time comes for us all, and you can bet that the Phillies are looking at what models tell us about the aging curve and wondering whether they really want to be on the hook for a player like Schwarber for the next four years.

Someone is going to hand him that sort of contract. He's been too good this year, and the free-agent market is too thin behind him. Will that be the Phillies? It would spark a fan revolt if the answer is no, but then again, they've had ample time to get this deal done. The fact that they haven't yet suggests they understand the risks here all too well.