Can you feel that cool breeze? September is right around the corner, which means October baseball isn't far behind. This week, FanSided's MLB panel discussed what to expect in the baseball calendar's final months – including which teams they do and don't trust – along with hot-button topics around the game. Can we trust the Brewers? Are the Phillies destined to fail? And what to make of Aaron Judge's struggles.
Well, we believe in exit velocity, bat flips, launch angles, stealing home, the hanging curveball, Big League Chew, sausage races, and that unwritten rules of any kind are self-indulgent, overrated crap. We believe Greg Maddux was an actual wizard. We believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment protecting minor league baseball and that pitch framing is both an art and a science. We believe in the sweet spot, making WARP not war, letting your closer chase a two-inning save, and we believe love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.
This week's panel:
MLB contenders we trust (and some we don't)
Chris Landers: Everybody keeps waiting for the regression to set in, but at a certain point, you can’t help but buy in to what the Blue Jays are doing. Shane Bieber hit the ground running in his Toronto debut, giving this team enviable starting pitching depth with Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, Jose Berrios and Eric Lauer. And offensively, they just keep on wearing you out: While it’s awfully hard to win a World Series without the long ball, there’s something to be said for the way that the Jays just keep on making contact even against really good pitching. The lack of pop is a question mark, as is the bullpen given Jeff Hoffman’s homer problem, but it’s hard to come up with a contender without warts right now – and I believe in the brand of ball Toronto is playing.
It’s far easier to come up with a contender I don’t trust, but unfortunately my own fandom compels me to tap the Yankees here. Not because they’re lacking talent: On the contrary, this is one of the best teams they’ve had in the Aaron Boone era, and on Earth 2 where Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt’s elbows stayed intact, we might be talking about them running away with the AL East. Alas, we don’t live in that world; instead, we live in a world where New York has shown up small in big moments time and time and time again. Their MVP candidate turns into a pumpkin in October and now has an elbow injury to worry about, and it’s hard to trust a reliever not named David Bednar right now (with apologies to Tim Hill). Add in a likely first-round visit to Fenway Park, and I’m skeptical.
Zach Rotman: Teams don’t sit 33 games over .500 in late August by accident. Sure, the Brewers have failed me before, and their lack of power could come back to bite them in October, but they do just about everything else well. Their starting rotation is really good, the back end of their bullpen is dominant, they play stellar defense, and they run the bases really well. Why can’t this be their year?
As for the contender I don’t trust, am I too much of a hater to say the Phillies? Their rotation is quite good, but their ace, Zack Wheeler, is done for the year. Jhoan Duran has the makings of being the lockdown closer they’ve lacked, but he’s seemed awfully hittable lately, and the rest of their bullpen (which will be without Jose Alvarado) has its share of questions. The lineup has historically been less than adequate in high-pressure moments, and who outside of that top three is going to produce? They can easily prove me wrong, but for now, I’d think even many Phillies fans have a hard time believing that this is their year.
Eric Cole: The Brewers are a fun pick, but I do feel like they are playing above their heads a little bit and could encounter some problems in the postseason against more talented teams who are also in top form. However, I really like what the Tigers have going on. They have the playoff experience from last year to draw from, Tarik Skubal who feels like a near guaranteed win most of the time when he is on the mound, a scrappy bullpen, and a young lineup full of talent, speed, and power.
As for who I don’t trust, count me out on the Mets and Phillies. Philly would have been a pretty safe pick for a deep run a month ago, but Zack Wheeler being out for the year combined with that aging roster should have their fans spooked. As for the Mets, I have yet to see any evidence that they can assemble a cohesive roster capable of a sustained run of success with all that money they are spending. They are dangerous, but they also could get swept in the first round with little resistance.
Robert Murray: The team that I trust the most is the Milwaukee Brewers. They have the offense and pitching, both starting and in the bullpen, to get deep into the postseason. They have great defense and are as fundamentally sound as any team in baseball. They also have Pat Murphy, who is in position to win his second straight National League Manager of the Year award. The big concern is the lack of power – it’s why they evaluated some bats at the deadline, including Ryan O’Hearn and Eugenio Suarez – and not acquiring either could be their downfall in the playoffs. But gosh, they sure are set up to be a nightmare for opposing teams.
The team I don’t trust is the Yankees. To be fair, they’ve been better! But the vibes have been off for most of the season. And for as fundamentally sound as the Brewers are, the Yankees are the polar opposite. I could see an early postseason exit for that exact reason.
Adam Weinrib: Every team is bad.
Ok, but really, in addition to the (hopefully) trustworthy Brewers and plucky underdog Dodgers, I believe strongly in the sustainability of the Boston Red Sox, especially in a short postseason series. Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello, and Lucas Giolito are all among the top five AL starters in ERA since June 10. Who cares about the back end, with a front three like that (and a lineup we all know is among the league’s best)?
I fear that the Detroit Tigers showed us a bit of their true colors during their midsummer slump, in which a 15-game lead briefly became four in the loss column. They’re going to win the division. They’re going to struggle to ignite the necessary motivational spark in the season’s final weeks. And they’re going to learn a harsh lesson about the variance of pitching chaos.
Oh, and I also don’t trust the Yankees, but they’re not a contender, right? They don’t count? They have a winning percentage under .300 against projected AL playoff teams.
Projected September call-ups with the greatest impact
Chris Landers: I’m still going with Andrew Painter here. Yes, the recent Triple-A numbers have been ugly. But the Phillies won’t need to slot him into their rotation; this team just needs one more arm to round out what remains a somewhat sketchy bullpen (especially with Jose Alvarado ineligible for the postseason), and letting Painter turn it loose for an inning or two at a time is still an awfully enticing proposition. It’s a risk, to be sure, as he continues to knock the rust off and adjust to high-level hitters after last year’s surgery. The upside is immense, though, and arguably no team is more desperate to cash in this year than Philly.
Eric Cole: Andrew Painter is an intriguing September call-up option here and he might be the most likely guy to actually get called up, but give me Payton Tolle. Boston is hanging on to a playoff spot at the moment and adding a high upside rotation arm like Tolle could be the edge they need. If those young hitters of theirs can keep improving and they pitch even reasonably well, the Red Sox will be as dangerous as anyone in October.
Zach Rotman: I’ll go with Trey Yesavage. I’m not sure that the Blue Jays will be willing to call him up, but given how mightily their bullpen has struggled lately, it’s getting tough to not give him a look. Yesavage has perhaps the best strikeout stuff in the minor leagues right now especially with Jonah Tong in the majors, and he can help fix what’s turning out to be a major weakness for the Jays down the stretch and into October.
Robert Murray: I’m siding with Chris here and going with Andrew Painter. Losing Zack Wheeler for the season is a massive blow to Philadelphia and they’re going to need everyone to step up, especially Painter. No city knows an underdog story better than Philadelphia. Just look at what happened when Carson Wentz went down with a torn ACL and Nick Foles guided the Eagles to their first Super Bowl. Who says Painter (and/or someone else in the pitching side) can lead Philly to the World Series?
Adam Weinrib: Payton Tolle, as long as the Red Sox choose him over Kyle Harrison to make a few of their final spot starts. I don’t think Tolle quite has ace upside long-term, but a month-and-a-half cameo is the perfect length of time for his hidden fastball to remain devastatingly deceptive. And we all know how creative Alex Cora gets with his bullpen come October.
How Aaron Judge can catch Cal Raleigh for AL MVP
Chris Landers: Is it overly salty of me to say that Judge simply has to hit like Aaron Judge? Raleigh’s season has been awesome, but I don’t think people realize just how significant the gap still is between him and Judge in terms of value at the plate. Of course, there’s more to MVP voting than simply hitting, and Judge’s recent injury-related slump has allowed Raleigh to pull about even or maybe slightly ahead. But if Judge gets back to his baseline over the last few weeks, he’s simply the best hitter in the sport.
Zach Rotman: Aaron Judge has to simply be Aaron Judge to close this gap. There’s a reason why even with all of the historic things Cal Raleigh had been doing, Judge was the MVP favorite for most of the year. It took a Judge injury and a “slump” for Raleigh to even be fully in the conversation. Nobody can compete with Judge at his best, even Raleigh. Judge might lose the home run battle, but even now, his WRC+ is still 33 points higher and even when factoring in his missed time and recent troubles, he’s tied with Raleigh in fWAR. A strong Judge-esque finish will earn him the MVP award.
Eric Cole: Judge at a 217 wRC+ in the first half of 2025 and asking him to just do that again was always going to be a tough ask. However, if he can just replicate one of his more average months this year like June when he “only” had a 153 wRC+ with nine homers, he probably overtakes Raleigh. I love what Raleigh has done this year, but he is kind of a homers plus catcher defense and little else sort of guy. If Judge can just do his thing and get New York into a solid playoff position, he should win again.
Robert Murray: Judge has to be himself. Last postseason, it almost felt like he was doing too much at the plate, and trying to be the hero. It resulted in a very poor performance, especially by Judge’s standards, and the criticism was loud. Very loud. But if he’s himself, which is an all-world, Hall of Fame player, he can catch Raleigh. He can guide the Yankees deep into the postseason. There aren’t many players who can do that, but Judge is one of the few who can say that.
Adam Weinrib: Heal up. Whether Judge returns to the outfield or not this season, he’ll need to figure out a way to recreate the rhythms he’s used to. Some combination of his elbow injury and the drudgery of DHing is holding him back. A dead-center bomb off Cade Cavalli on Wednesday might be the push he needs to start moving in the right direction. Raleigh and Judge are on roughly equivalent teams in the standings, so a powerhouse month from Judge (and a reversion to an impressive, but not overwhelming norm for Raleigh) should clinch it. That said, a Judge win feels almost as stale to the voters as an Ohtani win over Judge would’ve in 2022. I still think they’re likely to prefer new blood.
Second-place teams with a whole lot to gain in September
(Note: For this exercise, we focused on teams facing a deficit greater than two games at time of publication)
Chris Landers: Lord help me, I just can’t quit the Cubs. The schedule down the stretch is awfully friendly, and … I mean, at a certain point Brewers Devil Magic has to run dry, right? Chicago’s bats are finally starting to wake up, and Cade Horton has provided a much-needed third option in the rotation behind Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd. I think they could go on a real run to close the season, and if I’m buying into the Jays in the AL East, they’re the most viable option left.
Zach Rotman: I guess I’m going to go with the Mets? With the Padres and Mariners out of the question, only the Red Sox have a smaller deficit facing them than the Mets, and as fun as they’ve been, I’m not sure I have them making up four games on the Blue Jays. The Mets enter Wednesday’s action five games back of the Phillies with five games still to be played against their arch rivals. If the Mets can win, say, three of those, making up two more games (when factoring in that the Mets would own the tiebreaker vs. PHI), is far from impossible. It’s unlikely given the Mets’ tough schedule, but I do think the Phillies have opened the door to the Mets at least making things interesting down the stretch in the NL East by allowing the Mets to win the first two games of this week’s series.
Eric Cole: It kind of has to be the Red Sox, right? The Blue Jays are a fun story, but does anyone actually think they can sustain what they are doing with Roman Anthony, Alex Bregman, Garrett Crochet, and the rest of the Red Sox’s roster chasing them down? As of August 27, they are four games back of Toronto and the Blue Jays are not playing well right now. Expect this one to go down to the final week of the regular season.
Robert Murray: Just so I don’t have folks coming after me, the Padres trail the Dodgers by two games and the Mariners trail the Astros by 1.5 games. So they are exempt here.
Give me the New York Mets. They trail by five games, and are 7-3 in their last 10 games. The Phillies, meanwhile, are without Wheeler for the rest of the season. Nick Castellanos has been a disaster this season. Jordan Romano has been a puzzling player and his struggles have really hurt Philly, with the right-hander going on the Injured List. The Mets signed Juan Soto to the biggest deal in sports history this offseason and overcoming this deficit, and getting into the playoffs, is exactly why they did it.
Adam Weinrib: Have to echo Robert here, though I don’t think the Wheeler-less Phillies will actually give it up in the end. The Red Sox have a solid chance to stalk and kill the Fightin’ Ernie Clements, but I think the Blue Jays actually do have the juice, too. No shame in that. Two good teams.
2026 MLB schedule release: How many games will the Rockies win next April?
Context: More information on how the Rockies got screwed in the 2026 schedule release.)
Chris Landers: Put me down for two. Even the season-opening trip to Miami isn’t a cake walk, as the Marlins will likely be better than people expect next year – and that series could very well involve facing Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera. And from there … I mean, Colorado’s going to be a heavy underdog in literally every game, right? The pitching is just not competitive, and I don’t see a path to that changing any time soon; good luck getting anyone in free agency who has any other option to sign up for Coors Field. The 1988 Orioles – you know, the team that started 0-21 – hold the record for the worst start in a team’s first 25 games at 2-23; I think the Rockies tie them.
Zach Rotman: This is simply unfair. Rockies fans do not deserve this. I don’t think Colorado will win a single series in April, especially given the fact that I believe the Miami Marlins will be a bit improved in 2026. They won five games in April of 2025 with a much easier schedule. Winning fewer than that feels impossible, but if anyone can pull that off, it’s the Rockies. I’ll have them winning four games.
Eric Cole: I am going to dream big here and say they win six games. This is the time of the year for dreaming and chasing one’s hopes to the ends of the earth. Are the Rockies going to be good next year? Absolutely not and they probably never will be as long as the Monforts own them. However, I do expect them to be a bit better next season and should stumble into some early season wins.
Robert Murray: I’ll go with four wins. Somehow that feels optimistic. Poor Rockies fans!
Adam Weinrib: Really nice of the schedulemakers to ask ChatGPT to directly inflict pain on the game’s most moribund franchise. I’m going to be optimistic and predict seven wins. Rather encounter all of these great teams in April when things are unsettled, after all. Plus, the Phillies don’t want to come on a west coast swing, and the Mets are always bad in April.
Share something you wrote this week!
Chris Landers: I took a look at Rob Manfred’s recent realignment talk, and how sending the internet into a tizzy wasn’t really the goal as MLB marches toward a potential work stoppage next winter.
Zach Rotman: I predicted some X-Factors who I believe can make or break every contender. The stars are supposed to show up, but often times, the under-the-radar players play a huge role in determining whether a team goes on the playoff run they dream of or end with a whimper.
Adam Weinrib: Cam Schlittler and Dax Kilby might both be varying degrees of electric.
Robert Murray's Insider Notebook
-At the trade deadline, the Pirates received little interest in Andrew Heaney, which explains why the left-hander was not traded. Heaney, who was designated for assignment by the Pirates, should draw interest from other teams once he becomes a free agent.
-Perhaps no trade acquisitions have been bigger than Andrew Vaughn and Quinn Priester. Who would have expected that? Vaughn has been a revelation in Milwaukee and has clearly benefitted from a change of scenery. Priester, meanwhile, was someone the Brewers' pitching lab identified as a prime target and he's been terrific in Milwaukee. Both look like long-term answers in Milwaukee. Terrific work by Matt Arnold and the