Somebody cool off the Hot Stove! Fresh off the Alex Bregman signing over the weekend and a couple of trades on Tuesday, the Boston Red Sox came out of nowhere on Wednesday to nab lefty Ranger Suarez on a five-year, $130 million deal. Along with the trade for Sonny Gray, it completes a makeover of Boston's rotation — and throws the rest of the starting pitching market into total chaos.
At this point, there isn't a ton left for teams looking to add impact talent to their rotations for 2026 and beyond. That could mean a big payday for the one marquee free agent remaining in Framber Valdez, but it also means that every exec in need of pitching will be scrambling in the days to come to make sure they don't get left out. Which arms are left, and who will wind up where when the music stops?
LHP Framber Valdez
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
Valdez is now just about the last belle at the ball, at least when it comes to free agency. It remains to be seen how many years he'll get as he enters his age-32 season, but he should at the very least comfortably exceed the AAV that Suarez got from Boston.
The question remains: Where? The Mets are an obvious fit here, as are the Orioles. But I'm not sure this sort of investment fits David Stearns' M.O., not when trade candidates like Freddy Peralta come with significantly more future flexibility, and it remains to be seen how much money Baltimore has left after handing a bag to Pete Alonso. The Giants also desperately need another frontline arm if they want to contend for a playoff spot this year, and a ground-ball pitcher like Valdez in that park with that infield defense behind him is a match made in heaven.
RHP Zac Gallen
Prediction: New York Mets
Gallen just feels like a very Stearns-y signing, doesn't he? His market has clearly been depressed by a down contract year in 2025, and having the qualifying offer attached to him doesn't help, but it wasn't too long ago that he was posting back-to-back top-five finishes in NL Cy Young voting with Arizona. He's still only 30, and he seemed to get back to something closer to his old self down the stretch last season.
The Mets have made a habit under Stearns of eschewing massive pitching investments in favor of buy-low candidates. That strategy has brought mixed results so far, but Gallen could be a very reliable No. 3 for a team that needs at least one steady source of innings amid all the uncertainty. Even if Stearns does swing a deal for someone like Peralta, this could make a lot of sense, and allow them to deal from depth (David Peterson, perhaps?) to fill holes elsewhere.
RHP Justin Verlander
Prediction: Houston Astros
It seemed like it was finally time to declare Verlander cooked midway through 2025, with an ERA hovering near 5 for the Giants out of the All-Star break. But then, like a true future Hall of Famer, he adjusted: The 42-year-old pitched to a 2.60 ERA (3.36 FIP) from that point on, proving that he could still be an effective big-league pitcher thanks to a diverse arsenal and some top-of-the-scale pitching IQ.
Granted, 13 starts isn't a ton to go on if you're a team considering investing in the righty this winter. But he'll likely be available on a one-year deal, and he could be a godsend to a team in need of a boost to the back end of its rotation. We know Verlander is comfortable in Houston, and the Astros just so happen to be a team seeking pitching depth on the cheap right now. There figure to be several teams willing to take a flier on him, but the bet here is he sticks with what he knows.
RHP Lucas Giolito
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
When fully healthy, the Braves could boast quite the rotation in 2026. The problem is that, from Spencer Strider to Spencer Schwellenbach to Chris Sale to Reynaldo Lopez to Grant Holmes, it's hard to know just who will be available and for how long. Even with depth options like Hurston Waldrep, Bryce Elder and Joey Wentz still around, this team could use one more steady arm to help plug the gaps.
Giolito profiles as just that. He also comes with injury risk — he started the 2025 season late coming back from elbow surgery, and he ended it early due to another elbow issue — and he didn't miss nearly as many bats last year as he had in the past. But another year removed from surgery should help him find his old stuff again, and at the very least he brings a certain amount of veteran savvy. If he's looking for a one-year deal to rebuild his value, Atlanta might jump at the chance.
RHP Chris Bassitt
Prediction: San Diego Padres
Bassitt didn't finish the 2025 season in Toronto's rotation, but he hit the ground running in relief during the team's run to the World Series. And while he doesn't offer much upside as a guy in his late 30s with exceedingly average stuff, he should still hold plenty of value for a team with star power at the top but not a ton of depth in its rotation.
Enter the Padres, who have ... not a whole lot beyond Michael King, Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove, a trio long on potential but also long on injury risk. Arguably no team needs ~170 innings of a 4.00 ERA more than San Diego, and Bassitt could provide it for cheap.