Mid-to-late-September is the time of year when MLB fans hope to see their team punch its ticket to the postseason. Doing so is easier said than done, but that's always the dream scenario. The easiest way to keep tabs on how close teams are to clinching is by looking at magic numbers. The formula to calculate a magic number is as follows, per MLB.com:
- Games remaining +1 - (Losses by second place team - losses by first place team)
It's that simple. The purpose of a magic number is to see how many games any given team needs to win and/or its closest competitor to lose in order for a playoff spot to be clinched. The answer to the formula above is the combination of wins and losses needed for a given team to clinch. For example, if the New York Mets' magic number was two, all they'd need is a combination of two wins and/or losses by the San Francisco Giants, the first team out of the NL Wild Card race. If it were at one, they'd only need one of those things to happen.
As for the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers, their magic numbers to clinch postseason spots have reached zero. They've punched their tickets. The rest of the league still has work to do, though.
Struggling teams like the Detroit Tigers and Boston Red Sox are staring down the barrel at missing the postseason altogether. Detroit, in particular, is just 1.5 games ahead of the red-hot Guardians. They were 9.5 games up on Cleveland just 10 days ago. Should the Tigers lose the Central, there is a good chance they'd miss the playoffs altogether. Such a shocking in-season turnaround – Detroit ranked No. 1 in our MLB Power Rankings not all that long ago – is unprecedented.
With that in mind, let's take a look at where the magic numbers stand around the league entering play on Monday, Sept. 15.
Magic Number Updates
- American League standings: Mariners pushing, Blue Jays in control
- National League standings: Phillies making things interesting, Mets hanging on for dear life
- MLB magic numbers: Which AL teams are closest to clinching their division?
- MLB magic numbers: Which NL teams are closest to clinching their division?
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American League standings: Mariners pushing, Blue Jays in control
The Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers have been clear frontrunners to win their respective divisions and earn the top two seeds in the American League, but the Seattle Mariners are making the latter far from a given. Winners of nine straight, Seattle is suddenly catching up to Toronto and Detroit, and more importantly, they've pulled into first place in the AL West. Winning the division, even if they're unable to earn a bye like the Blue Jays and Tigers, would guarantee that their best-of-three Wild Card series is played at T-Mobile Park.
Team | Record | Games Back |
|---|---|---|
Toronto Blue Jays | 89-66 | -- |
Seattle Mariners | 86-69 | 3.0 |
Detroit Tigers | 85-70 | 4.0 |
New York Yankees (WC) | 87-68 | 2.0 |
Boston Red Sox (WC) | 85-70 | 4.0 |
Cleveland Guardians (WC) | 84-71 | 5.0 |
Houston Astros (OUT) | 84-71 | 5.0 |
The Blue Jays have seized control in the AL East and in the AL standings as a whole, sitting comfortably ahead of both the Tigers and Mariners in their quest to earn a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the American League playoffs. It won't be easy, but with Toronto having won four in a row and seven of their last 10, you have to like their chances of earning the No. 1 seed, especially considering the cushion they've built themselves. The AL West teams are particularly interesting to watch right now, as Seattle's hot play has earned them the AL West lead, leaving the Astros hanging by a thread in the AL standings.
If the regular season ended today, here's a look at what the AL Wild Card matchups would look like.
- Bye: (1) Toronto Blue Jays
- Bye: (2) Seattle Mariners
- (3) Detroit Tigers vs. (6) Cleveland Guardians
- (4) New York Yankees vs. (5) Boston Red Sox
National League standings: Phillies making things interesting, Mets hanging on for dear life
The Brewers have held the No. 1 seed in the National League for virtually the entire second half, but the Phillies, winners of eight of their last 10, are making things interesting. At the bottom of the NL playoff standings, the New York Mets seem to be doing everything possible to miss the playoffs, yet the teams trying to catch them are refusing to seize control of the third Wild Card spot.
Team | Record | Games Back |
|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers | 95-60 | -- |
Philadelphia Phillies | 92-63 | 3.0 |
Los Angeles Dodgers | 88-67 | 7.0 |
Chicago Cubs | 88-67 | 7.0 |
San Diego Padres | 84-71 | 11.0 |
New York Mets | 80-75 | 15.0 |
We have a race, folks. The Phillies are just 3.0 games behind Milwaukee for the opportunity to earn a bye and home-field advantage throughout the NL playoffs. Knowing how much of an advantage the Phillies have in October at home, the Brewers must keep their foot on the gas down the stretch. As for the Mets, well, they're just trying to survive. Anything other than the third Wild Card spot feels like a pipe dream even with a series against the San Diego Padres upcoming. They just have to find a way to squeak in at this point.
Here's a look at the projected playoff matchups right now.
- Bye: (1) Milwaukee Brewers
- Bye: (2) Philadelphia Phillies
- (3) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. (6) New York Mets
- (4) Chicago Cubs vs. (5) San Diego Padres
MLB magic numbers: Which AL teams are closest to clinching their division?
AL East
What looked like it could be an entertaining finish in the AL East is now less so. The Blue Jays appeared to be in a three-team race for the division with the Yankees and Red Sox, but thanks to their four-game winning streak, Toronto has now pulled ahead by 4.0 games over the Yankees and 5.5 games over Boston. Since Toronto won the season series against New York, its lead is technically at 5.0 games with 13 games to go. They aren't winners yet, but they're certainly getting closer. As bleak as that sounds for the Yankees and Red Sox, their path to October is quite clear still.
Team | Division Magic Number | Playoffs Magic Number |
|---|---|---|
Toronto Blue Jays | 6 | 3 |
New York Yankees | 10 | 5 |
Boston Red Sox | 12 | 7 |
Tampa Bay Rays | -- | -- |
Baltimore Orioles | -- | -- |
Postseason prediction: Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox make the playoffs
AL Central
The Tigers were in cruise control in the AL Central. The Cleveland Guardians have, against all odds, played very well after selling at the deadline, and they still have a series to go against the Tigers. Detroit is sweating bullets, as their second-half struggles have finally caught up with them. Meanwhile, Cleveland has won 10 straight games. As for the rest of the division, the Kansas City Royals are alive but on the outside looking in. It'd be surprising to see them (and the Guardians) catch up in the AL Wild Card race, given the talent discrepancy against teams like the Astros, Mariners, Yankees and Red Sox.
Team | Division Magic Number | Playoffs Magic Number |
|---|---|---|
Detroit Tigers | 7 | 7 |
Cleveland Guardians | 9 | 8 |
Kansas City Royals | 15 | 14 |
Minnesota Twins | -- | -- |
Chicago White Sox | -- | -- |
Postseason predictions: Tigers make the playoffs
AL West
The AL West is easily the most exciting division to follow right now. The Astros had been leading it for much of the year, but the Mariners just took over first place thanks to their nine-game winning streak. As demoralizing as that is, the Astros are right behind Seattle, and the Texas Rangers had played their way into the race as well. This is a three-team race, and it wouldn't be shocking to see all three of these teams squeak into the playoffs when all is said and done.
Team | Division Magic Number | Playoffs Magic Number |
|---|---|---|
Seattle Mariners | 6 | 6 |
Houston Astros | 10 | 9 |
Texas Rangers | 15 | 13 |
Athletics | -- | -- |
Los Angeles Angels | -- | -- |
Prediction: Astros and Mariners make the playoffs
MLB magic numbers: Which NL teams are closest to clinching their division?
NL East
Remember about a week ago, when the Mets still had a puncher's chance to catch up to the Phillies in the NL East? Well, a four-game sweep for Philadelphia over New York ended that threat, and has the Phillies are the first team to clinch its division this season.
Team | Division Magic Number | Playoffs Magic Number |
|---|---|---|
Philadelphia Phillies | X | X |
New York Mets | -- | 7 |
Miami Marlins | -- | 13 |
Atlanta Braves | -- | -- |
Washington Nationals | -- | -- |
Prediction: Phillies and Mets make the postseason
NL Central
The Brewers are favorites to not only win yet another NL Central division title, but also go on a World Series run. The National League has its share of tough teams, but have the Brewers ever been better-positioned to go on a deep run than right now? As for the rest of the division, the Cubs are likely to find their way into the playoffs, but the Reds and Cardinals have work to do.
Team | Division Magic Number | Playoffs Magic Number |
|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers | 1 | X |
Chicago Cubs | 15 | X |
Cincinnati Reds | -- | 9 |
St. Louis Cardinals | -- | 13 |
Pittsburgh Pirates | -- | -- |
Prediction: Brewers and Cubs make the postseason
NL West
The NL West might not be quite as dominant as expected, but there are still four teams very much alive. The Dodgers are clear favorites to win division, but the Padres remain on their heels. In the Wild Card race, both the Giants and Diamondbacks face tough obstacles, but with how the Mets have played, the door is open for one of these teams to squeak in with a strong couple of weeks.
Team | Division Magic Number | Playoffs Magic Number |
|---|---|---|
Los Angeles Dodgers | 4 | X |
San Diego Padres | 12 | 4 |
Arizona Diamondbacks | -- | 10 |
San Francisco Giants | -- | 12 |
Colorado Rockies | -- | -- |
Prediction: Dodgers and Padres make the postseason