The MLB offseason is in full swing, which means a litany of trade rumors surrounding the likes of Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal, free agency fodder regarding Kyle Tucker and the soon-to-be highest-paid players on the open market.
Identifying fact from fiction isn't easy this time of year. The Winter Meetings haven't yet occurred, so even pundits and insiders are playing a guessing game. In the end, common sense prevails.
What makes a good rumor, and why aren't they always true?
This business is funny sometimes. It's not that these rumors don't have an inkling of truth to them. Discussions happen between most contenders – especially those in large markets – and the top available free agents all the time. Will the Dodgers check in on Kyle Tucker? Absolutely. Should the Mets call the Tigers about Tarik Skubal? Heck yes! They'd be dumb not to.
The best rumors are intriguing and at times enraging to more than one fanbase. They include star talent, trades contender, pretenders and threaten to throw the entire league out of balance. But be forewarned, not every free agent is on a flight to Toronto. Speaking of...
Are the latest MLB Rumors fact, or fiction?
Cody Bellinger is a great fit for the Mets
Cody Bellinger could fill in for the Mets at corner outfield or first base. New York just traded away Brandon Nimmo, and are at risk of losing Pete Alonso to rival suitors if they don't pay the right price. However, Bellinger may not fit in Queens as well as you might expect.
On the one hand, Bellinger has proven he can perform up to expectation in New York. Yankees fans can agree with that. However, the ballparks are different, and the majority of Bellinger's power is to right field. The Yankee Stadium short porch played quite the role in Belli boosting his statistics. He won't be nearly as lucky with the Mets, which is why David Stearns ought to think twice before signing him to a long-term deal.
The facts: Mets will check on Bellinger, but he's not a sure thing
Red Sox rumored return for Joe Ryan
The Boston Red Sox traded for Sonny Gray just Tuesday, but Boston fans won't be thrilled if that's the only rotation addition Craig Breslow makes this winter. Enter Joe Ryan, who the Sox have been connected with since last season's trade deadline. The Twins ownership sale failure could make the likes of Ryan and Byron Buxton available.
That being said, the idea that Boston could send Jarren Duran, who is also available via trade, to Minnesota for Ryan doesn't make a whole lot of sense. It's not that Duran couldn't fit in the Twins outfield, which features Buxton, Matt Wallner and Austin Martin. He doesn't fit Minnesota's timeline or asking price for Ryan, though, which is said to be two top-50 prospects.
The facts: Joe Ryan is a great trade fit in Boston, but return will be greater than Duran.
Pete Alonso is a natural fit on the Orioles
The Orioles could spend more than usual this winter, and they need a big bat in their lineup. Pete Alonso would fit in well at either designated hitter or even first base, especially with Ryan Mountcastle on the outs.
However, Baltimore's need for that power bat went down significantly when they acquired outfielder Taylor Ward via trade. Signing Alonso, who would command close to $30 million AAV on a multiyear deal, goes against the Orioles business model, even with relatively new ownership. Alonso isn't about to take a pay cut, especially with Steve Cohen and the Mets lingering.
The facts: Orioles might not be able to afford Pete Alonso.
Dodgers are frontrunners for Kyle Tucker
The Dodgers are almost always considered frontrunners for every top free agent. That sounds like I'm oversimplifying MLB free agency, but I'm not. The Dodgers had the highest payroll in baseball last year, have won back-to-back World Series, and have Shohei Ohtani signed for just $2 million AAV over the next decade before his deferred money kicks in.
Signing Tucker could be too expensive, even for Los Angeles. The Dodgers are already within $4 million of going over the luxury tax once again. Tucker is expected to cost close to $400 million when he does sign. The Dodgers could find a suitable replacement for the underperforming Michael Conforto without going that high.
The facts: Dodgers luxury tax sins are catching up with them.
Kyle Schwarber could choose the Mets over Phillies
Kyle Schwarber will be coveted by just about any contender in need of a 50-home run bat. That list is a long one. However, Schwarber is also entering his late-30's and wants a multiyear deal. That should limit his suitors some, a list which includes the Phillies, Red Sox, Reds, Mets and more.
The Mets are included if only because they'll need a replacement for Alonso should he leave. However, New York would be silly to give an older Schwarber more money before Alonso signs. Alonso is the team's all-time home run leader already and a fan favorite. Don't overthink this.
The facts: Phillies should be favored to keep Kyle Schwarber, not lose him.
Tigers have no choice but to trade Tarik Skubal this offseason
Tarik Skubal is entering the final year of his contract in 2026. The Tigers likely cannot afford to extend him, as the early returns suggest he'll receive a deal north of $400 million should he reach free agency healthy. Therefore, the trade winds are swirling around the back-to-back AL Cy Young winner.
Let's come back to reality for just a second, though. The Tigers made the postseason for the second straight season despite collapsing down the stretch. Skubal is the biggest reason they got there, yet again. Detroit is not a playoff team without Skubal, at least not yet. Trading him now, rather than at the deadline, will net them a better return but would also enrage a fanbase that's already grown anxious.
The facts: Tigers are likely to hold on to Tarik Skubal, at least until the trade deadline.
Pirates are going to spend to build around Paul Skenes
The Pirates have received enough flack for their failure to win with the best pitcher in the National League on their roster. Skenes won his first Cy Young the season after securing NL Rookie of the Year. He's a once-in-a-lifetime talent for a team like the Pirates, which are on pace to waste him in the years to come. Skenes won't be available via free agency until after 2029. That gives Pittsburgh plenty of time to build around him, should they wish.
The only problem? Well, this is the Pirates. Bob Nutting traditionally doesn't throw money around in free agency, and the Bucs had one of the lowest payrolls in baseball last season, which is the norm for them. Early reports suggest this winter could be different, but I'll believe it when I see it.