Another week of the MLB regular season is in the books, and as we get set to enter the month of September, what began as a 162-game marathon has now become a five-week sprint to the finish. Who will wind up making it to October, and who will be going home early?
It seems like the postseason picture shifts on a daily basis, but as we begin a new week, let's take a look at where the playoff brackets stand in both the NL and AL entering play on Monday, Aug. 25.
For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB season.
Projected American League postseason bracket
The Yankees finally managed to beat their arch rivals from Boston, salvaging the finale of a largely miserable four-game set on Sunday night. The Mariners punctuated a much-needed series win over the A's with two homers from Cal Raleigh, while the Tigers, Blue Jays and Astros all lost. With that said, here's how things shake out in the AL playoff bracket entering play on Monday.
- No. 1: Detroit Tigers (78-54, AL Central champs)
- No. 2: Toronto Blue Jays (76-55, AL East champs)
- No. 3: Houston Astros (72-59, AL West champs)
- No. 4: Boston Red Sox (71-60, top AL Wild Card)
- No. 5: New York Yankees (70-60, No. 2 AL Wild Card)
- No. 6: Seattle Mariners (70-61, No. 3 AL Wild Card)
At this point, it's hard to imagine that anyone is going to seriously challenge either the Tigers or the Blue Jays for the top two seeds — and the all-important first-round byes that come with them. The Astros, Yankees and Mariners have been scuffling of late, and while the Red Sox are rounding into form, they also have a five-game hole to try and climb out of if they want to overtake Toronto in the AL East.
While the Tigers and Jays enjoy a pass to the ALDS, we have two dynamite divisional rivalries on tap in the Wild Card round:
- No. 5 New York Yankees at No. 4 Boston Red Sox
- No. 6: Seattle Mariners at No. 3 Houston Astros
Yes, please. These teams all really, really don't like each other, which is the best kind of October baseball. As for who would win: It's impossible to pick the Yankees against the Red Sox in a best-of-three right now, especially at Fenway Park, while the Mariners' starting pitching figures to give them a slight edge against a slumping Astros offense. I'll pick Boston and Seattle to advance to the ALDS, with the former facing the Blue Jays and the latter facing the Tigers.
Projected National League postseason bracket
Here's how things look in the NL, with the Cubs suddenly gaining ground on the Brewers, the Phillies threatening to salt away the NL East and the Dodgers and Padres continuing to wage war against each other out west. L.A. and San Diego have identical 74-57 records, but the Dodgers' win in the series finale against the Friars on Sunday clinched the season series and gave them the all-important head-to-head tiebreaker. That puts Dave Roberts' team in the No. 3 spot, with San Diego falling to No. 5.
- No. 1: Milwaukee Brewers (81-50, NL Central champs)
- No. 2: Philadelphia Phillies (76-54, NL East champs)
- No. 3: Los Angeles Dodgers (74-57, NL West champs)
- No. 4: Chicago Cubs (76-55, No. 1 NL Wild Card)
- No. 5: San Diego Padres (74-57, No. 2 NL Wild Card)
- No. 6: New York Mets (69-61, No. 3 NL Wild Card)
Again, the top two spots and the first-round byes feel pretty secure right now, although the Dodgers are always liable to get hot and the Cubs might still have a miracle run toward a division title in them. As things stand, though, we again have two electric matchups on tap:
- No. 5 San Diego Padres at No. 4 Chicago Cubs
- No. 6: New York Mets at No. 3 Los Angeles Dodgers
The Padres would travel to Wrigley Field to take on Chicago, while the Mets would face the Dodgers in a rematch of last year's NLCS. Juan Soto vs. Shohei Ohtani? Arguably the two most all-in teams in baseball in the Padres and Cubs, squaring off in a best-of-three? Sign us up. Right now, I'd favor the Dodgers over the Mets because of their starting pitching depth, while the Padres' postseason formula (i.e., a lights-out bullpen that could shut down the second half of games) could give them the slightest of edges.