As the 2025 MLB campaign draws to a close, the battle for 12 postseason spots is heating up. It's fair to say that, like, 10 of those spots are more or less secure, with precise seeding yet to be determined. But the Wild Card races, in both the American League and the National League, are certainly compelling.
Right now, the Seattle Mariners and New York Mets own the final Wild Card slots in the AL and NL, respectively. Those are two extremely talented teams with the potential to push deep into October, but you can't take your foot off the gas pedal in September. Here is how the standings play out with less than a month remaining in the regular season.
National League Wild Card standings
Seed | Team | Record | GB |
|---|---|---|---|
4 | Chicago Cubs | 83-63 | +7.0 |
5 | San Diego Padres | 79-67 | +3.0 |
6 | New York Mets | 76-70 | -- |
-- | Cincinnati Reds | 74-72 | 2.0 |
-- | San Francisco Giants | 74-72 | 2.0 |
-- | Arizona Diamondbacks | 73-74 | 3.5 |
This race is a little bit lopsided, as the Cubs and Padres are (probably) safe. It's really the Mets in the danger zone, with San Francisco and Cincinnati both picking up serious momentum of late. The Reds feel like pretenders who are a couple years away from their big run, but the Giants spent a lot of money last winter and traded for Rafael Devers midseason, all in hopes of trading blows with the NL heavyweights. With how bad the Mets are performing right now, not much is keeping the Giants (or even the Reds) from making an aggressive push. The Giants are 7-3 over their last 10 games; the Mets are 3-7 after dropping three straight in Philadelphia. Beware P-T-SD.
American League Wild Card standings
Seed | Team | Record | GB |
|---|---|---|---|
4 | New York Yankees | 80-65 | +2.5 |
5 | Boston Red Sox | 81-66 | +2.5 |
6 | Seattle Mariners | 78-68 | -- |
-- | Texas Rangers | 77-70 | 1.5 |
-- | Cleveland Guardians | 74-71 | 3.5 |
-- | Kansas City Royals | 74-72 | 4.0 |
The American League race is a whole lot tighter. Seattle has begun to turn the ship around a bit )(get it... Mariners, ship), but the Texas Rangers made substantial upgrades at the deadline and have a strong recent track record in the autumn months. Merrill Kelly is throwing gas, that whole rotation is lights-out, and the lineup isn't too far removed from the group that won a World Series a couple years ago.
Meanwhile, the Yankees and Red Sox aren't really safe either. Both AL East squads are dealing with a tough division and serious injuries, few more dire than Roman Anthony's absence in Boston. Even behind Texas, both Cleveland and Kansas City were postseason teams a year ago. Can't count 'em out.
So, let's canvass the entire postseason field and determine the fanbases with the most concern as October approaches — from those on the bubble to those with only positive vibes.
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12. Milwaukee Brewers – 1/10
The Milwaukee Brewers' postseason track record is less than ideal, but concerns about how this scrappy underdog performs in October don't really translate to "panic" right now. Milwaukee is the best team in MLB record-wise, their roster is deep and healthy, and the vibes are overwhelmingly positive. You can quibble with their lack of slugging or high-wattage star power, but no team has more consistently exceeded expectations all season.
11. Toronto Blue Jays — 1/10
Again, the Toronto Blue Jays might not have what it takes to reach the mountaintop. But there hasn't been a more dependable American League team since the All-Star break. Kevin Gausman has strung together three excellent starts in a row, this offense is anchored by two bonafide stars in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, and the Blue Jays fanbase can't help but feel great about a team that is basically playing with house money. Nobody expected this, but Toronto is riding high into the campaign's late stages.
10. Detroit Tigers — 2/10
The Detroit Tigers hit some turbulence after the All-Star break, but A.J. Hinch is the best manager in MLB and the Tigers are still tied for the best record in the American League with Toronto. Their starting lineup features eight hitters with an OPS+ over 100 and the pitching staff is led by the most fearsome single pitcher in baseball in Tarik Skubal. It's fair to wonder if Detroit, like other small-market surprises, has the manpower to survive seven games against more expensive rosters, but there's not much evidence to discredit the Tigers at this stage.
9. Philadelphia Phillies — 4/10
The Philadelphia Phillies are making a spirited last-second push for wall-to-wall home field advantage, but injuries to Trea Turner and Zack Wheeler has seeded some doubt in the fanbase. Rob Thomson's affection for Nick Castellanos does not help either. The Phillies' outfield depth chart is better than expected after the Harrison Bader trade, but it's hardly a strength. Turner will hopefully make it back for the playoffs, but will he return immediately the MVP level he reached pre-injury? Hamstrings are no joke. Philadelphia looks great right now, but this team will need to prove itself in the face of injuries and past postseason flameouts.
8. Los Angeles Dodgers — 4/10
The Los Angeles Dodgers really don't look that scary right now, but with the roster finally healthy, it's hard to earnestly rule them out of the World Series race. Shohei Ohtani is about to win MVP, again. The top of the pitching staff looks dominant between Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow. This roster does not need to fulfill its potential to reach the mountaintop. The bullpen is underperforming and the offense hasn't been as stalwart as advertised, but L.A. will finish with the No. 3 seed at worst and the pedigree of reigning champs.
7. Houston Astros — 5/10
Of MLB's six first-place teams, the Houston Astros are dealing with the most injuries and playing the worst baseball of late. I needn't remind you of all Houston has accomplished this decade, but the Astros bowed out in the first round a year ago and that feels distinctly plausible again this season. You won't find many more talented or "proven" groups, but with Josh Hader, Isaac Paredes and a long list of key contributors on the IL, it's harder to express full confidence in Houston's inconsistent lineup and thin rotation.
6. Chicago Cubs — 5/10
It has been a disappointing second half for the Chicago Cubs, but Kyle Tucker is beginning to relocate his swing and the North Siders are still in the driver's seat for the top Wild Card slot. Losing the division to Milwaukee (again) won't soothe an anxious fanbase, but Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Ian Happ form a rock-solid offensive foundation. Meanwhile, Rookie of the Year candidate Cade Horton has stabilized the rotation behind aces Shōta Imanaga and Matthew Boyd. Chicago is certainly under a lot of pressure, the panic isn't necessarily the vibe right now.
5. Boston Red Sox — 6/10
Injuries to Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer have put a damper on the Boston Red Sox's World Series aspirations, but the hope is that Anthony can make it back sometime in October. Moreover, Boston has impressive depth to its roster, especially in the outfield. The rotation behind Garrett Crochet is not bulletproof (and Crochet himself is struggling of late), but Boston has generated a ton of positive energy since the Raffy Devers trade and this team feels capable of a real underdog run.
4. New York Yankees — 7/10
The New York Yankees appear to be back on track, to a certain extent, after a wayward April. But their postseason spot isn't locked up yet and this roster has no shortage of question marks, from Anthony Volpe's role moving forward to the shape of the bullpen amid Devin Williams' career-worst campaign. We know Aaron Judge is a force of nature, but the Yankees' hitting depth remains in question and their execution — on defense, on the bases, in terms of basic plate discipline — leaves a lot to be desired. Talent and money only gets you so far.
3. San Diego Padres — 8/10
The San Diego Padres really aren't playing quality baseball right now, and unlike their NL West rivals in Los Angeles, the Padres don't have the benefit of the doubt to fall back on. The hope is that Xander Bogaerts can return from the IL soon, but Manny Machado is mired in a weeks-long slump and the Padres' rotation is probably the weakest of all postseason contenders. The bullpen, conversely, is airtight, but that won't matter if the Padres are always fighting uphill come October.
2. Seattle Mariners — 9/10
The Seattle Mariners are probably the team in the greatest danger right now, but the Mariners are also a prime sleeper to win the whole damn thing this season. Just look at the Mariners roster. Cal Raleigh is an MVP frontrunner, Julio Rodríguez, Randy Arozarena, and Josh Naylor are all plus hitters, and the rotation is loaded with high-leverage arms, front to back — including Bryan Woo, a viable Cy Young candidate. Seattle has been struggling to get over the hump for years and will need to prove its mettle in October, but while stress levels are high right now, the ceiling for this team is, too.
1. New York Mets — 10/10
Five straight losses, including the first three in a four-game series against the Phillies with the division on the line, has the Mets feeling like a team on the brink. It's fair to say that San Francisco and Cincinnati just aren't that compelling as threats, but both teams are showing substantially more upward momentum right now. Moreover, what happens even if the Mets do squeak into the playoffs? Are Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat ready to win postseason games? Can this wobbly bullpen figure it out? The talent level has never been in question, but of all the teams in the postseason mix right now, none look worse for wear than the Mets.