Perhaps not in the way baseball fans expected, there has been movement in the MLB offseason since Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso signed at the Winter Meetings. Michael King is going back to San Diego, the Rays and Orioles are trading, the Pirates, Astros and again the Rays are dealing as well, and the MLB rumors keep flowing. However, it's hard to not notice that some of the other big dominoes haven't fallen yet.
Are the Boston Red Sox going to pull off the Ketel Marte trade, or do they have more competition? Meanwhile, we haven't seen the selling St. Louis Cardinals make a trade since dealing Sonny Gray, but something has to be brewing. And what about the Philadelphia Phillies, who traded Matt Strahm, but have largely been quiet since re-signing Schwarber? There's some buzz on all of those fronts right now that we need to check in on.
Red Sox have Ketel Marte trade competition from Rays
For weeks now, the Red Sox have been the favorites to trade for Arizona Diamondbacks All-Star second baseman Ketel Marte. The buzz about a potential deal started at the Winter Meetings and, while other suitors have been mentioned, it's been Boston at the forefront of most discussions — even if talks between the two sides don't appear to have materialized into anything close to concrete at this point.
Because there hasn't been a deal reached (or come close to, according to reports), it was quite interesting as Tampa Bay loaded up on prospects on Friday in two separate trades that reporter Francys Romero noted that the Rays and Red Sox were both exploring a trade for Marte. He also added that nothing appeared to be close, but it is worth noting that the Rays have loaded up on some pitching prospects, which is reportedly what Arizona is eyeing in a deal for their All-Star.
To some degree, that might sound like a sound-the-alarms type of deal for the Red Sox this offseason when the early winter has already felt largely in the same vein. And make no mistake, no Boston fan should be foolish enough to think that the Sox are the only ones calling if Marte is actually available at less than $20 million AAV given his offensive ability and plus defense.
Having said that, there are two things to consider here. For one, this potential interest from the Rays isn't anything new, but it is worth noting that Shane Baz, who Tampa traded to the Pirates, was considered a potentially key piece in a Marte deal with the D'Backs. While they have loaded up on prospects, what we don't know is if trading Baz to Baltimore was essentially moving on from talks with Arizona, or if it was a shuffle to better appease the Diamondbacks.
More importantly and also more optimistically for the Red Sox, though, is that Tampa loading up on pitching doesn't diminish the position that Boston is in. If Arizona indeed does want pitching, they have a plethora throughout the system that they could deal from. Dealing Marcelo Mayer would be a tough pill to swallow, but it is an option at their disposal. And let's also not forget the possibility of moving a Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu.
That's by no means a guarantee that Boston is still in the proverbial lead for Marte this offseason. However, it is to say that more competition in that market doesn't mean the Red Sox are out of it either. It may simply come down to how aggressive Craig Breslow is willing to get.
Favorites appear in order for Cardinals trade fire sale
The beginning of the Chaim Bloom era with the St. Louis Cardinals saw Sonny Gray get shipped to Boston, but perhaps the biggest surprise thus far is that we haven't seen any other trade activity to this point. That, however, won't be the norm for the remainder of the offseason — and as of now, it does seem that the favorites to deal for the players the Cards are looking to part with to jumpstart a newfangled rebuild have emerged.
In the case of Brendan Donovan, perhaps the most valuable asset that could be on the move from St. Louis, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic ($) reported that the Seattle Mariners remain the favorites for his services. After seeing Jorge Polanco sign in New York and with Eugenio Suarez still unsigned in free agency, the versatile Donovan would conceivably be a perfect fit for the M's in trying to replicate their ALCS run of last season — and they have the prospect capital to be able to get the Cards to move.
Beyond Donovan, the Los Angeles Dodgers were listed specifically as a potential suitor for Lars Nootbaar, which would make sense given early-offseason reports that the back-to-back World Series champions might not be as big of spenders overall in free agency this offseason, but still look to make meaningful improvements.
However, the most interesting note from where I'm sitting came on the Nolan Arenado front as Rosenthal reported that the Los Angeles Angels could be a landing spot for the veteran third baseman. While he said that "no trade is imminent", the club is set to part ways with Anthony Rendon in a buyout agreement, and could be looking for a replacement — and Arenado could fit the bill.
On one hand, getting any kind of production from third base after the disastrous Rendon contract would be an upgrade for the Halos. At the same time, Arenado's decline has been evident and he comes with two years remaining on his deal at 35 years old. That seems like a move to get more name-power on the roster, but not one to meaningfully improve the Angels in ways that fans have been begging for. Perhaps I'm wrong, there, but it's not something that would excite me all too much if I was an Angels fan.
Phillies could lay low to wait out Alex Bregman (or Bo Bichette)
On the heels of bringing Schwarber back to Philly, it's been quite often that Dave Dombrowski's team has been listed as seemingly an ancillary suitor for free agents, while also being included in trade discussions. Buzz about Strahm being dealt was building before the swap with Kansas City, though, and there have been similar rumors regarding the future of Alec Bohm. And Phillies fans have been quick to jump on the idea of trading Bohm and then signing Alex Bregman in free agency, who they've previously been connected to. Other fans have floated the idea of Bo Bichette as well.
However, if that does happen in some order of operations, it might take some time for it to develop for the Phillies — but that might all be by design.
Matt Gelb of The Athletic ($), the Phillies aren't looking to add a ton more to their payroll this offseason and listed pitching depth as the current priority. However, he also reported that Philadelphia and Dombrowski "could enter the bidding on a bigger free agent in January should a player’s market collapse."
Considering that both Bregman and Bichette (and perhaps, to a much lesser degree, Kyle Tucker) remain unsigned just a week before Christmas Day, that certainly leads you to wonder where things could develop for the Phillies to swoop in late. It could conceivably happen in terms of a market collapse with both Bregman and Bichette, given the former's desires for a lengthy deal and concerns about the latter's defense and position.
That's by no means a guarantee that the Phillies will have an opportunity if they're waiting for markets to collapse, but it is a possibility. For my money, Bregman is the more likely option as, despite recent reported interest from Arizona, it does still seem as if the Red Sox are the favorites to re-sign the All-Star third baseman, but may not be willing to go to the six-year contract he wants. And if Philadelphia was able to replace Bohm with Bregman, the City of Brotherly Love would certainly appear to be quite pleased with that outcome.