MLB Trade Grades: Orioles sell the farm in Shane Baz gamble

The Baltimore Orioles already pulled off the most shocking move of the MLB offseason, signing Pete Alonso to a five-year, $155 million contract. The Home Run Derby champ brings immense power to the O's lineup. Next on their list of priorities was upgrading the rotation, which Baltimore accomplished on Friday afternoon.

Baltimore has acquired right-handed pitcher Shane Baz from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for a boatload of prospects and a future Competitive Balance Round A pick, per MLB.com's Mark Feinsand.

Orioles acquire Shane Baz from Rays is gutsy trade

Baltimore adds Baz, 26, to a rotation that still feels incomplete. Baz made 31 starts for Tampa last season, posting a 4.87 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. He logged 176 strikeouts in 166.1 innings and is under club control through 2029.

Tampa adds several talented prospects to its pipeline. Forret (No. 5), de Brun (No. 6), Bodine (No. 11) and Overn (No. 20) are all top-20 prospects in the Rays system, per MLB Pipeline.

Rays trade grade: A

Shane Baz is awesome in spurts, and his ERA last season was partially inflated due to spending half his campaign in a Minor League ballpark. But the truth of the matter is that Baz, for all his natural talent, profiles as a mid-rotation arm — the third or fourth guy on a healthy staff. He's not an ace, and Tampa has pitching to spare. To receive four top-20 prospects in return, including two top-six prospects, is an unequivocal win. Not to mention a future pick.

This is a long-term investment for the Rays, so little is guaranteed at this stage. Overn, 22, is the oldest of Tampa's returning pieces at 22, and he spent last season primarily in High-A. Still, all four of these players have a chance to meaningfully contribute down the line. Even if Tampa only hits on two or three, this trade will age line a fine wine for the Rays.

Forret might be the most exciting, just because he's the closest to making a dent at the MLB level. The 21-year-old put up a 1.58 ERA across 19 outings (18 starts) between High-A and Double-A last season. He has two fastballs, two sliders and two changeups at his disposal, mixing speeds and location to disrupt his opponents' rhythm.

de Brun was a Competitive Balance Round A pick to Baltimore mere months ago. Similar in frame and athleticism to Corbin Carroll, de Brun lacks size but makes up for it with speed and IQ. He covers a lot of ground in the outfield, steals bases on the regular, and knows how to get the barrel to the baseball — even if he's not generating a ton of raw power.

Overn's ability to drive and elevate pitches is similarly TBD, but he's a speed demon and one of the best defensive outfield prospects in the Minors, giving him a clear path to value at the next level.

Bodine gives Tampa a long-term option at catcher following the free agent departure of Danny Jansen. The 22-year-old switch hitter produces a ton of line drives and keeps strikeouts to a minimum, but a lack of pop and middling defense could limit his upside.

All in all, this was a huge haul for Tampa, and while Forret feels like the only true star bet from this group, the sheer volume of talent — or future trade ammo — should have Rays fans feeling over the moon. Especially after a nice haul in the Brandon Lowe trade earlier in the day.

Orioles trade grade: C+

Shane Baz's career has featured more than its share of ups and downs. He missed all of 2023 after Tommy John surgery, but came on strong with a 3.06 ERA in 14 starts the following year. Last season, his impact varied wildly between home games at Steinbrenner Field (5.90 ERA in 82.1 innings) and road games (3.86 ERA in 84 innings).

The move to Camden Yards should help Baz quite a bit. He leans heavily on his high-90s fastball and high-80s slider, with a curveball and the occasional changeup mixed in for good measure. His expected ERA (3.85) last season backs up the noisy home-road splits. Baz's velocity, strikeout rate and groundball rate were all up compared to 2024, suggesting that he's healthier, more comfortable, and very much on the upswing of his career.

This can't — or shouldn't — be the only move Baltimore makes on the rotation front. It's nice to get a few years of club control and some genuine upside, but the O's still need a frontline ace to anchor the rotation and carry them into October. Michael King was connected to Baltimore, but ultimately re-signed in San Diego. Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez and Tatsuya Imai are the best free agent pitchers left. All would substantially improve the Orioles' outlook for 2026.

Luckily for O's fans, it does not sound like this is it. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic said Baltimore could sign or trade for another starting pitcher.

Even after giving up four valuable prospects, Baltimore has the positional depth to engineer another major trade (MacKenzie Gore? Freddy Peralta? Tarik Skubal?) or, it seems, the financial capacity to land a top-shelf free agent. The O's proved their aggression with this trade and the Alonso signing. Now, GM Mike Elias needs to land the plane and finish off this transformative winter in style.

This trade is a gamble for the O's. Baz has significant upside, but he has not put together a full season of consistent excellence at the MLB level. Tampa won't reap the rewards of this trade for at least a couple more years, but the Rays got the better value on paper. That does not mean the O's will come to regret this, though. If Baz delivers, this has all the hallmarks of a win-win move.