The Baltimore Orioles finally — FINALLY — paid for a premier free agent, inking first baseman Pete Alonso to a five-year, $155 million contract with no deferrals or opt-outs. ESPN's Jeff Passan broke the news.
This has huge ramifications across MLB and especially in the AL East. Not only does it mean the O's are serious, but it means the Boston Red Sox didn't sign Pete Alonso, and now must turn elsewhere. It feels like all five teams in the division are more or less planning to contend next season, with several major free agent dominoes still yet to fall. Here's how the divisional hierarchy shapes up:
5. Tampa Bay Rays
Key pieces: 3B Junior Caminero, 1B Jonathan Aranda, DH Yandy Díaz, SP Drew Rasmussen, SP Shane McClanahan, 2B Brandon Lowe
Officially slated to return to Tropicana Field in 2026, the Tampa Bay Rays shouldn't be written off entirely. This team finished fourth in the division last season and is only two years removed from winning 99 games. That said, Tampa is clearly bringing up the rear in the AL East. Baseball is inherently unpredictable; strange things can and will occur. But, on paper, Tampa has the steepest mountain to climb.
The Rays just lack the established depth of other teams in the division right now. Yandy Díaz is coming off a dominant season at the plate, but he's a 34-year-old DH who might not be around much longer. Brandon Lowe's name has also come up in trade rumors. Junior Caminero and Jonathan Aranda are Tampa's true building blocks, but dive beyond the Rays' core pieces, and the lineup thins out far too quickly.
Tampa's sneaky secret weapon might be the pitching staff. Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot and Shane McClanahan form a rock-solid top three, while Steven Matz's return to a starting gig could hand Tampa a nice fourth or fifth option. Shane Baz has dealt with bouts of inconsistency, but his fastball dances through the zone at 95-plus and his curveball is a strong secondary pitch.
Pete Fairbanks' impending departure does compromise the bullpen, but that's one area this Rays front office can probably afford to address, either via free agency or trade. The Rays aren't pushovers by any means, but it feels like Tampa is probably inclined to wait out the current AL East arms race, rather than join in. That said, if the Rays can sneak into the Ketel Marte sweepstakes, things get spicy.
4. Boston Red Sox
Key pieces: OF Roman Anthony, SP Garrett Crochet, OF Ceddanne Rafaela, OF Wilyer Abreu, SP Sonny Gray, RP Aroldis Chapman
The Red Sox have been extremely active this offseason, trading for Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo. It sure seems like Craig Breslow isn't close to done, and the right combination of offensive upgrades can push Boston up a spot or two in these rankings. That said, Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso were the dream outcomes for Boston in its quest to replace Rafael Devers. The Sox went 0-for-2.
If the Red Sox can trade for Ketel Marte or Corey Seager, that feels like the needle-moving, blockbuster swing that can save their offseason. But after (seemingly) passing up the chance to add a bonafide second ace behind Garrett Crochet, the Red Sox can't afford to just re-sign Alex Bregman or replace him with Bo Bichette.
There is plenty of untapped potential with Boston's young core, but it's far too early to project Marcelo Mayer or Kristian Campbell with any confidence. Roman Anthony projects as a fringe MVP candidate in his early-20s, which helps, but counting on Trevor Story to maintain last season's production as he ages into his mid-30s is a bold gamble. Plus, there's almost no chance that Boston keeps both Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu. How does Breslow go about easing their outfield logjam? Can he turn one of those premium outfield bats into a standout infielder or a shutdown ace? Or does he just restock Boston's farm system?
The Red Sox have options. The overwhelming depth of their pitching staff (and outfield) has to mean a big move is coming, though. The Red Sox should be able to win the Ketel Marte bidding war in a landslide. So, don't take this ranking to the bank. Just know that if Breslow shortchanges the expectations of Red Sox fans, something he has done in the past, Boston could be fighting an uphill battle in 2026.
3. Baltimore Orioles
Key stars: SS Gunnar Henderson, 1B Pete Alonso, OF Taylor Ward, SP Trevor Rogers, SP Kyle Bradish, C Adley Rutschman
Not to jump the gun, but Pete Alonso meaningfully changes the calculus of this Baltimore Orioles lineup. Last season was an abject disaster for the O's, but it should not negate the back-to-back seasons of 90-plus wins that we ALL witnessed prior. Baltimore still has the deepest reservoir of young positional talent in MLB. There is immense upside across the board.
Alonso delivers the 40-home run power Baltimore found itself lacking after Anthony Santander's departure. Meanwhile, a healthy season probably puts Gunnar Henderson back in the MVP race. Adley Rutschman, when at full strength, is one of the best catchers in MLB. Newcomer Taylor Ward hit 36 home runs last season.
Baltimore is certainly counting on internal development, which is seldom a guarantee. But between Jackson Holliday, Samuel Basallo, Dylan Beavers and Colton Cowser — most of whom were already pretty solid in 2025 — we can expect serious growth across the board. There is a lot of raw pop in the mix for the O's.
Pitching is the primary drawback. The Grayson Rodriguez trade thinned out an already-barren rotation and we shouldn't trust 2026 Ryan Helsley as a closer. That said, the O's are still talking to Framber Valdez, while their abundant youth pipeline puts trade targets like MacKenzie Gore, Freddy Peralta or even Tarik Skubal well within reach. The Red Sox aren't done adding, but neither are the O's.
2. New York Yankees
Key pieces: OF Aaron Judge, SP Max Fried, SP Gerrit Cole, 2B Jazz Chisholm Jr., 1B Ben Rice, DH Giancarlo Stanton
The New York Yankees led MLB in home runs and runs scored last season, by a healthy margin. This offense is explosive, and a full season of Giancarlo Stanton — plus further development from the likes of Ben Rice and Jasson Domínguez — sure can't hurt. It's starting to feel like Cody Bellinger might not re-sign, which is admittedly a setback. But even if the Yankees mostly tread water this offseason, Aaron Boone's squad should mash a ton in 2026.
Aaron Judge remains peerless in the American League, which is the foundation of confidence in this Yankees team. Baseball is not a one-player sport, but even hampered by an elbow injury last season, Judge hit .331 with a 1.144 OPS and 53 home runs to claim his third MVP award. He's a singular offensive engine and a huge floor-raiser as New York navigates a few question marks on the fringe of its roster.
Gerrit Cole, Clarke Schmidt and Carlos Rodón will all begin 2026 on the IL, but Cole's eventual return should give the Yankees the best one-two punch in the AL. Max Fried lived up to his $218 million billing last season, while the rapid breakout of Cam Schlittler gives the Yankees' rotation a bit more stuff to work with as the injury bug heals.
Bellinger returning is the dream, short of Kyle Tucker, but even if the Yankees lose an All-Star and don't really replace him, Brian Cashman won't sit on his hands for an entire calendar year. New York has a healthy farm system and the means to improve its on-field product at any moment. The Yankees' defense and base-running follies are still a limiting factor, but in terms of talent and pedigree, it's hard to bet against the Bronx Bombers.
1. Toronto Blue Jays
Key pieces: 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., OF George Springer, SP Dylan Cease, SP Kevin Gausman, C Alejandro Kirk, OF Daulton Varsho
The Toronto Blue Jays came out of nowhere — sort of — to win the AL East and eventually the American League proper. It ended in heartbreak, with an extra-innings, Game 7 loss in the World Series, but Toronto meaningfully outplayed the Dodgers for much of that series and appeared to have the better team top to bottom. The final result is what matters, of course, but there's no reason to think Toronto can't capitalize on the momentum of last season's breakthrough.
GM Ross Atkins still needs to handle the rest of free agency, but Toronto already locked up Dylan Cease on a seven-year contract, quietly plucked 2025 KBO MVP Cody Ponce off the marketplace, and secured Shane Bieber's services for 2026. Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage round out a potentially dominant starting rotation, with depth to spare.
Toronto's offense was an absolute buzzsaw last season. The entire Blue Jays lineup is extremely disciplined, trading strikeouts for smart swings and a lot of long at-bats. Toronto has its power source in Vladimir Guerrero Jr., while their defense — Ernie Clement and Andrés Giménez on the left side of the infield, Daulton Varsho in center, Alejandro Kirk behind home plate — operates well above the league average.
Bo Bichette is a free agent, but there's a solid chance Toronto brings him back and moves him to a less demanding position at second base. Plus, the Blue Jays are still very much in the running for Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger. Atkins has long been one of the most aggressive GMs in baseball. Now, he has the cachet to start reeling in those big fish. The Blue Jays are here to stay.