The MLB Winter Meetings are upon us, and with that comes the unpredictability of the MLB free agency and trade markets. Thankfully, insiders tend to drop their notebooks early, so we have some idea of how MLB stars and their agents will be swayed in Orlando.
Whether it's Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger or Pete Alonso, this winter's free-agent market could be full of surprises. Tucker is expected to command a contract over $400 million, with Bellinger using that number to his advantage already (more on that later). Meanwhile, Alonso and his counterparts gauge exactly how much money they can swindle in the months to come.
Ketel Marte trade rumors: Which teams are favored to land Diamondbacks star?
While the likes of Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal and Pirates generational talent Paul Skenes are not expected to be traded at the MLB Winter Meetings, the same cannot be said of Arizona Diamondbacks infielder Ketel Marte. Marte, who finished last season with a 4.4 bWAR and 145 OPS+, is among the best second basemen in MLB. Arizona claims they want to contend in 2026, but their inclination to trade one of their best players suggests otherwise.
Per MLB Insider Bob Nightengale, there are numerous teams lined up for Marte's services:
"The D-backs however, believe now is the time to sever ties, and are in desperate need for pitching. The Red Sox, Rays and Tigers have all checked in, with each having the pitching depth to satisfy the D-backs’ needs," Nightengale wrote, while adding that Marte's contract makes him a particularly attractive fit for contending teams. Marte is signed through 2031 and has $92 million left on his deal. Again, that is a bargain for any team actually trying to contend in the not-so-distant future.
Jon Heyman added that even the Pittsburgh Pirates are interested in Marte, and that should come as no surprise since Bob Nutting has vowed to build around Skenes. Marte is the exact type of player – productive and on an affordable deal long term – that the Pirates should want to add.
Given the language used by Nightengale and others in the industry, it's a matter of when, not if, Marte is sent packing this winter.
Pete Alonso has a surprise suitor, but does it hold up?
Unlike Marte, we know Pete Alonso is available this offseason. Alonso is one of the top free agents available and a Scott Boras client, which means he was destined to test the market to its fullest extent. That really starts at the MLB Winter Meetings.
Alonso is likely to sign after Kyle Schwarber, a DH with similar power output who could help the Mets star set his price tag. While Schwarber has 50-home run power, Alonso is younger and can still play in the field, though he is open to play DH long term as well.
According to Nightengale, the Pirates have some interest in Alonso as well. They've already been connected to Schwarber. This is undeniably the Pittsburgh version of 'we tried'. If the Pirates are mentioned by insiders as in the market – and potentially making lowball offers to – Alonso and Schwarber, there's little the fanbase can say to complain about their lack of spending.
Still, it's a longshot the Pirates add either player this offseason. If Pittsburgh really wants to make a big splash, Marte is a far more realistic target.
Cody Bellinger is using Kyle Tucker's demands against him
Kyle Tucker is the most attractive free agent available, but due to his $400 million demand likely won't sign at the Winter Meetings. Tucker deserves every penny he eventually receives, but there's a realistic argument to make if he's THAT much better than the alternative options. Cody Bellinger – and thus Scott Boras – have already run that argument by potential suitors, per Nightengale.
"Bellinger’s camp is reminding everyone who’ll listen that he’s just 1 ½ years older than Tucker, 28. The Yankees still are the favorites to bring him back, but the Mets are in play, and he’s a fallback plan for teams like the Phillies and Blue Jays," Nightengale wrote.
Bellinger doesn't offer the same kind of consistency Tucker does, which is why he is the No. 1 option on free agency boards for teams that can afford him. However, not every team can make that sort of payment. The challenge for interested parties will be balancing their interest in Tucker with the likely reality they miss out on him. For likely Bellinger suitors such as the Yankees – who would prefer to get a deal done early at the Winter Meetings – it'll be interesting to note whether Boras advises his client to wait out Tucker's market in hopes of a larger deal.
Bellinger is on the wrong side of 30, but he's also a former MVP who is coming off a 5.1 bWAR season. He can play either of the corner outfield spots or first base, and he should be able to do so for quite some time. For some teams, that could be more attractive than spending their entire winter budget on one player.