Orioles signing Ryan Helsley proves they're willing to take risks to contend

Baltimore signals to fans that this offseason might be different, adding a two-time All-Star to anchor the bullpen.
New York Mets v Atlanta Braves
New York Mets v Atlanta Braves | John David Mercer/GettyImages

The Baltimore Orioles are off to the races this offseason, as GM Mike Elias has agreed to terms on a two-year contract with reliever Ryan Helsley. The deal includes a player opt-out, per ESPN's Jeff Passan. He will receive $28 million total if he completes the deal, per The Athletic's Katie Woo.

Helsley received interest from teams hoping to convert him to a starter, but the 31-year-old will anchor the bullpen and assume closer duties for the O's.

Orioles show fans this offseason could be different

Orioles fans have been burned by Mike Elias too many times to count, so amid reports of an aggressive offseason approach from the Baltimore front office, skepticism was the appropriate reaction. Elias has dealt almost exclusively in one-year, mid-market fliers since taking over the O's front office. His lone departure from that strategy was a three-year deal for Tyler O'Neill last winter, an immediate regret.

This is a positive sign, however. Even though it's another shorter-term deal, the O's locked up one of the best available relievers in late November, before the winter meetings even take place. Baltimore is on top of things. This cannot be their only big splash of the offseason, of course, but as the first of (hopefully) many moves, it's hard to complain.

Helsley finished last season with a 4.50 ERA and 1.54 WHIP, notching 63 strikeouts in 53.0 innings. He put up a 3.00 ERA and 1.39 WHIP for St. Louis across 36 appearances before the trade deadline, though. He had a sub-3.00 ERA in each of his last three campaigns, peaking with a 2.04 ERA, a league-leading 49 saves, and a ninth-place NL Cy Young finish in 2024.

With Félix Bautista expected to miss the beginning of next season as he recovers from shoulder surgery, the O's desperately needed more firepower in the bullpen. Helsley brings an impressive track record of success. Last season was a letdown in every conceivable way, but with 99th percentile fastball velocity and a vicious slider, there's reason to believe Helsley can round into form again as a dominant high-leverage arm.

Orioles' Ryan Helsley investment isn't risk-free

Ryan Helsley
New York Mets relief pitcher Ryan Helsley (56) | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

This reads as a smart gamble on the surface, but it is a gamble. The Helsley we saw in St. Louis the past 3.5 seasons is, without question, worthy of $14 million annually. But Helsley was dealt to the Mets last July, and now we have 22 incredibly frustrating appearances to consider.

Helsley finished his brief Mets tenure with a 7.20 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in 20.0 innings, notching 22 strikeouts. He was unplayable down the stretch. The Mets quickly demoted him from Edwin Díaz's primary setup man to a low-leverage role that aimed to keep him out of harm's way, although not very successfully.

Was that simply a flash in the pan? A brief meltdown in an uncomfortable new situation? Or did the move to New York exacerbate broader trends and lay bare the imminent decline of a once-great reliever? Only time will tell, but some of the numbers under the hood were less than ideal in 2025.

Helsley puts a ton of juice on his fastball, but it doesn't move around much. He needs to command those pitches and last season, Helsley coughed up 11 walks in 20.0 innings as a Met (compared to 14 walks in 36.0 innings as a Cardinal). His 9.9 percent walk rate landed in MLB's 19th percentile, paired with an average exit velocity (91 MPH) in the seventh percentile. Helsley left a lot of fastballs out of the zone, with minimal deception. He also zipped plenty right over the heart of the plate and was punished accordingly.

The O's need St. Louis Helsley to show up — not New York Helsley. At 31, he's far from ancient, especially for a reliever still capable of probing the upper echelon of MLB velos. But sometimes a pitcher just loses his fastball, quite literally. In today's MLB, velocity alone counts for little. Every hitter has seen 102 MPH on the gun at some point. If Helsley cannot regain his command and maximize his upper-80s slider, he will encounter the very same pitfalls in Baltimore that he did in Queens.

Orioles can't let Ryan Helsley be the defining move of their offseason

Mike Elias
Athletics v Baltimore Orioles | G Fiume/GettyImages

Helsley is not in the Edwin Díaz or Robert Suárez tier of available relievers, but for standard, small-market budget reasons, he's a smart investment for the O's. Especially if Baltimore plans to allocate significant funds elsewhere.

That is a critical "if," though. Helsley can't be Mike Elias' one big move this winter. Baltimore desperately needs a frontline starter, especially after the Grayson Rodriguez trade. There was a lot of Dylan Cease buzz, but he's already in Toronto. This isn't a particularly deep market for starting pitchers, so if the O's aren't willing to bid on the likes of Framber Valdez or Ranger Suárez (or at least Zac Gallen), Elias needs to focus on a ripe trade market. Freddy Peralta, MacKenzie Gore and Sandy Alcántara could all work wonders in Baltimore.

The O's also need help in the lineup. We've heard rumblings around Pete Alonso, which is extremely promising. Even Eugenio Suárez or Jorge Polanco could meaningfully move the needle for Baltimore. But, if Elias simply relies on internal development, as he's done the past couple offseasons, the Corbin Burnes trade notwithstanding... let's just say the O's will be in for another disappointing campaign.

Baltimore fans need to hold Elias' feet to the fire and demand more. Helsley is a great start to the offseason. He can't be the pinnacle.

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