The MLB Playoffs really aren't that far off. October is a few short months away, which means we will all be treated to postseason baseball soon enough. Until then, we have a trade deadline, an All-Star break and a couple months of regular season baseball to consume. It's a great time of year for MLB fans.
That said, the vibes really depend on your own individual fandom. Some teams are soaring in the direction of a postseason berth, while others are just about dead in the water. So much can change between July and October, but we are at the point in the season when the playoff race is starting to crystalize and take shape. Teams too far on the periphery are running out of time to change their fortunes.
So, let's dive into the MLB standings, organized by FanGraphs' playoff odds, to determine which teams are sitting comfortably and which teams are approaching teardown territory.
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AL East standings organized by playoff odds
Rank | Team | Record | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | New York Yankees | 48-36 | 95.1% |
2 | Tampa Bay Rays | 47-38 | 75.1% |
3 | Toronto Blue Jays | 46-38 | 68.2% |
4 | Boston Red Sox | 42-44 | 17.3% |
5 | Baltimore Orioles | 37-47 | 4.4% |
There was a time when Boston was favored to win this division in some circles. It has been a disappointing season for the Red Sox, marred by injuries and pitching woes and, most of all, the Rafael Devers trade. It will be worth monitoring how aggressive Craig Breslow is at the trade deadline, especially with Alex Bregman due back soon. Boston is a sleeper — more than its current postseason odds might suggest.
Otherwise, we really just need to pour one out for Orioles fans. They, too, were a supposed contender to win the division not long ago. Now we're stuck wondering if Baltimore's exciting young core will even get the proverbial car out of neutral.
AL Central standings ordered by playoff odds
Rank | Team | Record | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Detroit Tigers | 53-32 | 99.3% |
2 | Minnesota Twins | 40-44 | 25.5% |
3 | Cleveland Guardians | 40-42 | 20.9% |
4 | Kansas City Royals | 39-46 | 7.9% |
5 | Chicago White Sox | 28-56 | 0% |
So, unless the White Sox win out, we can safely cross their name off the postseason list.
Cleveland has been a major disappointment after a gutsy run to the ALCS last winter. The pitching dominance has subsided and the offense just does not have enough pop outside of José Ramírez. There's still time to turn things around, but it's telling that Minnesota has better postseason odds despite being a full game worse in the standings.
AL West standings organized by playoff odds
Rank | Team | Record | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Houston Astros | 50-34 | 96.1% |
2 | Seattle Mariners | 44-40 | 65.5% |
3 | Texas Rangers | 41-44 | 17.7% |
4 | Los Angeles Angels | 41-42 | 6.6% |
5 | Athletics | 35-52 | 0.3% |
A's fans: "So you're sayin' there's a chance?"
Houston has been on absolute fire in recent weeks after a slow start to the campaign. With Jeremy Peña creeping up the MVP leaderboard and Hunter Brown circling the Cy Young debate, the Astros once again feel like a reckonable force in the AL Central and beyond — maybe even the favorites to win the pennant.
NL East standings organized by playoff odds
Rank | Team | Record | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Philadelphia Phillies | 50-35 | 93.3% |
2 | New York Mets | 48-37 | 78.2% |
3 | Atlanta Braves | 38-45 | 24.9% |
4 | Miami Marlins | 37-45 | 0.2% |
5 | Washington Nationals | 35-49 | 0.1% |
New York's recent struggles have tilted the division heavily in Philadelphia's favor — for now. The Phillies aren't without their own shortcomings, but a deep pitching staff and an experienced lineup gives them a solid recipe to keep this pace up and potentially win the division. New York's rotation is a disaster right now and there are too many new elements that have not fully gelled.
Meanwhile, Atlanta getting almost 25 percent better odds than Miami despite only a half-game advantage in the standings is a bit amusing (or depressing, if you're a Marlins fan). Braves fans will definitely take those odds with how dour the campaign has been so far. They aren't dead yet.
NL Central standings organized by playoff odds
Rank | Team | Record | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Chicago Cubs | 49-35 | 84.2% |
2 | Milwaukee Brewers | 47-37 | 58.9% |
3 | St. Louis Cardinals | 47-39 | 45.3% |
4 | Cincinnati Reds | 44-41 | 14.0% |
5 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 36-50 | 0.3% |
The Brewers just won't die. Milwaukee keeps on hanging around the top of the NL Central, well within striking distance of Craig Counsell's Cubs. That said, Chicago's offensive star-power and looming trade deadline upgrades should keep Counsell and company in the driver's seat. This is the closest Chicago has been to a true World Series contender in a while.
It's remarkable how deep the talent pool in the Central division is this season after the relative stagnation of 2024. Milwaukee has been coasting to the division crown in recent years. Now the Cubs have an MVP candidate and a potential $500 million superstar, while St. Louis and Cincinnati both look the part of ascending teams with a chance to play baseball in October.
NL West standings organized by playoff odds
Rank | Team | Record | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 53-32 | 99.8% |
2 | San Diego Padres | 45-39 | 40.9% |
3 | San Francisco Giants | 45-40 | 36.6% |
4 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 42-42 | 23.3% |
5 | Colorado Rockies | 19-65 | 0% |
This is an incredibly tight race for second place. The Dodgers are the Dodgers, so their division lead and near-perfect postseason odds come as no surprise. But the level of competition coming from within their own state was unexpected
San Diego has been up and down a lot this season, but no team came closer to unseating the Dodgers last posteason. San Francisco has been the most aggressive front office in baseball outside of New York or Los Angeles. The Raffy Devers trade meaningfully altered the landscape of this race. Even Arizona still has a shot at exactly .500 and with plenty of positive regression due on the injury front. Surely D'Backs can't keep getting this unlucky.