Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- Run differential is the best way to determine which MLB teams are really impressing early in the season.
- The Milwaukee Brewers lead MLB with a dominant +18 run differential through four games this season.
- The Philadelphia Phillies own the worst run differential in baseball after struggling offensively and defensively. But the complete standings tell a story.
With just one weekend of the 2026 regular season elapsed, it's hard to know what's legit or not. Chances are, Joey Weimer won't win the MVP award. Michael Soroka will probably allow a run at some point. A three or four-game sample size is microscopic relative to a 162-game marathon, and is easy to ignore when we're in the middle of the season. One of the few indicators that could give us an idea of which teams are legit or not in late March is run differential.
Odds are, if you're consistently beating teams by wide margins, your team is a good one. Conversely, if you're consistently losing games by multiple runs, it's harder to believe that the team is a true contender. There's no perfect model, but again, run differential is as good as it gets. With that in mind, here's a look at how the standings look right now based on run differential.
MLB standings by run differential
AL East
Rank | Team | Run Differential | Current Record |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | New York Yankees | +11 | 3-1 |
2 | Tampa Bay Rays | +2 | 2-2 |
3 | Baltimore Orioles | -3 | 2-2 |
4 | Toronto Blue Jays | -4 | 3-1 |
5 | Boston Red Sox | -6 | 1-3 |
When you allow just three runs in four games, you'll get off to a pretty good start, and the New York Yankees have done just that. They haven't hit much outside of Opening Day, but their pitching looking as good as it has, puts the Yankees at 3-1 and with the best run differential in the American League.
What's particularly surprising is seeing the Toronto Blue Jays sitting at 3-1 despite a negative run differential. This is an example of this small sample size coming back to bite a team, as despite an impressive series-opening sweep against the Athletics, the Jays took a brutal 14-5 loss on Monday, really hurting their run differential.
AL Central
Rank | Team | Run Differential | Current Record |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Detroit Tigers | +3 | 2-2 |
2 | Minnesota Twins | -2 | 1-3 |
3 | Kansas City Royals | -5 | 2-2 |
4 | Cleveland Guardians | -7 | 3-2 |
5 | Chicago White Sox | -14 | 1-3 |
The AL Central is thought of as one of the worst divisions in baseball, and the first bit of this season hasn't changed anything in that regard. The Detroit Tigers are the only team with a positive differential, and even they have barely scored more runs than they've allowed.
What sticks out in this division is just how bad a start the Chicago White Sox have gotten off to. The White Sox entered the season with some positive momentum, and Munetaka Murakami has gotten off to a great start, but things haven't gone well for the most part.
AL West
Rank | Team | Run Differential | Current Record |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Seattle Mariners | +10 | 3-2 |
2 | Texas Rangers | +7 | 3-1 |
3 | Houston Astros | +4 | 3-2 |
4 | Los Angeles Angels | -2 | 2-3 |
5 | Athletics | -9 | 0-4 |
The AL West has been a sneaky-good division thus far. Three of the four highest run differentials in the AL come from this division, and even the two teams with negative run differentials have been a bit better than you might think.
The Los Angeles Angels could easily be 4-1 if they hadn't blown two late leads against the Houston Astros. As for the Athletics, they're the only winless team left, but they've essentially lost by an average of two runs per game. They've been in every game, and could easily be the sneaky AL postseason sleeper many expected them to be.
NL East
Rank | Team | Run Differential | Current Record |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Washington Nationals | +12 | 3-1 |
2 | Atlanta Braves | +11 | 3-1 |
3 | New York Mets | +7 | 3-1 |
4 | Miami Marlins | -2 | 3-1 |
5 | Philadelphia Phillies | -15 | 1-3 |
No team has gotten off to a weirder start than the Washington Nationals. They've won a game by 11 runs and another by six, but they've also taken an eight-run defeat. Still, a 3-1 record against postseason-caliber teams like the Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs with some impressive offensive showings is good to see from a team that's viewed as a non-threat.
Speaking of those Philadelphia Phillies, their -15 run differential is the worst in the majors. Sure, their 13-2 loss on Monday played a role, but they've also scored four runs or fewer in each of their last three games and have allowed a combined 21 runs in their last two contests. They still have ample time to prove that running it back wasn't their worst option, but the season couldn't have gotten off to much of a worse start.
NL Central
Rank | Team | Run Differential | Current Record |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Milwaukee Brewers | +18 | 3-1 |
2 | Chicago Cubs | +4 | 2-2 |
3 | Cincinnati Reds | +1 | 3-1 |
4 | St. Louis Cardinals | -3 | 2-2 |
5 | Pittsburgh Pirates | -7 | 1-3 |
Everyone (myself included) consistently counts the Milwaukee Brewers out, and they never seem to care. Their +18 run differential leads the majors, and while sure, playing the White Sox helps, the Brewers have been consistently awesome in the regular season and deserve to be treated as the postseason-caliber team they always turn out to be.
A team off to a wildly disappointing start, though, is the Pittsburgh Pirates. A busy offseason had some Pirates fans hoping this would be the year they get back to the postseason, and it could be, but defensive concerns, bullpen woes, and some offensive questions could hold them back if the first weekend of the season is any indication.
NL West
Rank | Team | Run Differential | Current Record |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | +6 | 3-1 |
2 | Colorado Rockies | +6 | 1-3 |
3 | Arizona Diamondbacks | -5 | 1-3 |
4 | San Diego Padres | -7 | 1-3 |
5 | San Francisco Giants | -11 | 1-3 |
It's no surprise to see the Los Angeles Dodgers at the top of the NL West record-wise, but who had them tied with the Colorado Rockies in run differential at any point? I know it's early, but can we talk about how the Rockies have been playing fresh off a 119-loss season?
They just won a 14-5 game on the road against the defending AL champion Blue Jays, and while they were swept by the Marlins to begin their season, Colorado lost all three of those games by one run. They could easily be 4-0 right now, and while this team ultimately won't be any good by the end of the season, they could be more improved than anyone expected.
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