We've reached the second-to-last weekend of the MLB regular season, meaning most teams have fewer than 10 games remaining on the schedule. With that in mind, we have a pretty good idea of which teams will make it to the postseason, but as for which clubs have what it takes to go on a deep run, that's to be determined.
One way of sifting out the contenders from the pretenders is by looking at run differential. Generally, teams that outscore their opponents by more runs are simply better. Those who find ways to win but barely outscore their opponents generally are unable to sustain winning into October.
The expected record shows what teams' records would look like if they were based on run differential. This is a pretty good indicator of just how good teams are. Let's take a look at what the MLB standings would look like by using MLB.com's expected record.
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MLB standings by expected record
AL East
Rank | Team | Expected Record | Current Record |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | New York Yankees | 89-64 | 86-67 |
2 | Boston Red Sox | 87-66 | 83-70 |
3 | Toronto Blue Jays | 85-68 | 89-64 |
4 | Tampa Bay Rays | 82-71 | 75-78 |
5 | Baltimore Orioles | 67-86 | 72-81 |
The AL East would go through a massive shift if the standings were based on expected record. The Toronto Blue Jays currently lead the division and have the best record in the AL but would fall to third place and hold the third Wild Card spot in the AL in this new world. Both the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox would have several more wins on their ledgers and be in a two-way race for the division title.
A big reason why the Jays have been able to pull ahead in the AL East is that they've gone 27-19 in one-run games. They deserve credit for pulling out close wins, but is this sustainable come October? Both the Yankees and Red Sox are under .500 in one-run affairs, so it makes sense to assume their luck will even out come postseason time.
AL Central
Rank | Team | Expected Record | Current Record |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Detroit Tigers | 85-68 | 85-68 |
2 | Cleveland Guardians | 73-79 | 81-71 |
3 | Kansas City Royals | 74-79 | 76-77 |
4 | Minnesota Twins | 67-85 | 66-86 |
5 | Chicago White Sox | 67-86 | 57-96 |
The AL Central race has suddenly become interesting with the Cleveland Guardians cutting the Detroit Tigers' lead to a somewhat manageable 3.5 games with another series between these two teams to be played. In this expected record world, though, the Tigers will have clinched the division comfortably by now.
While Detroit's expected record matches its current record, Cleveland has drastically outperformed its run differential. The Guardians have allowed 23 more runs than they've scored, making the fact that they're 10 games over .500 fascinating. It'll be interesting to see if their luck will run dry or if this team has a magical finish in store.
AL West
Rank | Team | Expected Record | Current Record |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Texas Rangers | 86-67 | 79-74 |
2 | Seattle Mariners | 82-71 | 84-69 |
3 | Houston Astros | 79-74 | 84-69 |
4 | Athletics | 70-83 | 72-81 |
5 | Los Angeles Angels | 62-91 | 69-84 |
The Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros are currently tied for first place in the AL West. However, if we were to go by run differential, the Texas Rangers, a team unlikely to make the playoffs to begin with, would be sitting comfortably in the division lead. What's even crazier is that the Astros wouldn't even be in a playoff spot right now with their expected 79-74 record. Their 27-16 record in one-run games, though, has helped save them for now.
NL East
Rank | Team | Expected Record | Current Record |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Philadelphia Phillies | 89-64 | 91-62 |
2 | New York Mets | 82-71 | 79-74 |
3 | Atlanta Braves | 74-79 | 70-83 |
4 | Miami Marlins | 68-85 | 73-80 |
5 | Washington Nationals | 58-95 | 62-91 |
Not much would really change in the NL East in this new world, as the Philadelphia Phillies would still be the clear leader to win the division. The New York Mets would still be the third Wild Card team. The one slight difference is that the Miami Marlins would be completely out of Wild Card contention. It's unlikely they make it regardless, but they're technically still in the hunt even though their run differential suggests they shouldn't be.
NL Central
Rank | Team | Expected Record | Current Record |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Milwaukee Brewers | 95-68 | 94-59 |
2 | Chicago Cubs | 90-63 | 88-65 |
3 | Cincinnati Reds | 79-74 | 77-76 |
4 | St. Louis Cardinals | 71-82 | 74-79 |
5 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 67-86 | 65-88 |
The Milwaukee Brewers are the best team in baseball record-wise, and it turns out that they've gotten slightly unlucky based on their expected record. Milwaukee's +190 run differential is the best in the majors by a wide margin, and their expected record shows just that.
An eye-opening result here, though, is that the Chicago Cubs, while they wouldn't catch the Brewers, would be the second-best team in the majors if we went by expected record. Their offense has run a bit dry in the second half, but they've done a good job preventing runs. Perhaps the Cubs are better equipped to go on a run as a Wild Card team than we've given them credit for.
NL West
Rank | Team | Expected Record | Current Record |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 88-65 | 86-67 |
2 | San Diego Padres | 83-70 | 83-70 |
3 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 79-74 | 77-76 |
4 | San Francisco Giants | 78-75 | 76-67 |
5 | Colorado Rockies | 42-111 | 41-112 |
The NL West would be pretty much the same as it is right now if we went by expected record. The Los Angeles Dodgers would be in first place in the division, and the San Diego Padres would still hold the No. 2 Wild Card spot. One notable thing is that the Colorado Rockies would essentially be just as bad as their current record says they are.
Their run differential is at a whopping -404. Last year's record-setting 41-121 Chicago White Sox team had a -306 run differential and a 48-114 expected record. Their record probably won't show this, but an argument can be made that the 2025 Rockies are worse than the 2024 White Sox, which is nuts.