MLB standings: Predicting whether every division leader is built to last

The MLB season is a six-month, 162-game marathon. This means there will be highs and lows for even the best of teams over the course of such a long year. Some of these highs and lows, for specific teams, take place in April. I mean, this New York Mets' roster is flawed, but does anyone actually believe they'll finish in last place in the NL East? Are the Seattle Mariners really the worst team in the AL West?

Some interesting teams are sitting atop their respective divisions as well. How many of the six first-place teams entering Thursday's action will stay there? Let's dive in.

AL East

The team most picked to finish last in the AL East leads the way over three weeks into the season. While the Tampa Bay Rays are better than MLB fans probably gave them credit for, as is the case every year, it's hard to see this sustaining for a couple of reasons.

First, the competition in this division is insanely strong. The New York Yankees haven't played great, but once they get Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón back from injury and once struggling hitters like Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Cody Bellinger pick it up, they're a force. The Baltimore Orioles don't have the best starting rotation ever, but their lineup should be really good. The Toronto Blue Jays are dealing with a slew of injuries but should be fine once they get better luck there. The vibes are disastrous in Boston, but the Boston Red Sox have too much talent to be a cellar-dweller, even in this division. Talent-wise, I'm not sure the Rays are better than a single team in this division.

Second, I'm not sure this Rays team can hit enough. Yes, Chandler Simpson is off to an unbelievable start, and guys like Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda are really good, but guys like Jake Fraley and Cedric Mullins hit in the middle of this order consistently. There just isn't enough talent offensively to make me believe the Rays can score enough consistently.

They can pitch, and again, they always seem to exceed expectations, but it's hard to win this division. This Rays team just isn't good enough.

AL Central

Speaking of teams expected to finish towards the bottom of their respective division, the Minnesota Twins deserve their flowers. They made it clear that they were entering a rebuild by trading nearly half their roster at last year's trade deadline and not making any major offseason additions. Yet the Twins have been outstanding, ranking in the top five in runs scored and just outside the top 10 in starting pitching ERA.

They've been crushing the ball despite early-season struggles from Byron Buxton and Luke Keaschall to another Royce Lewis injury. They've pitched well despite Pablo Lopez missing the entire year due to injury. While there's certainly more to like than I thought there would be, it's hard to take the Twins seriously.

I mean, their best run producer has been Josh Bell, a notoriously streaky hitter. Their best pitcher has been Taj Bradley, a starter who has allowed a ton of hard-hit contact in the air. Once it warms up, there's a good chance he'll start to allow home runs in bunches, as he has done over the course of his career. Not allowing a single home run through four starts is unsustainable.

Perhaps they can play well enough to convince management to hold onto guys like Buxton and Joe Ryan at the trade deadline. When it comes to winning the division, it's hard to envision this group fending off more talented squads like the Detroit Tigers or the Cleveland Guardians.

AL West

The Athletics were a team many expected to improve this season, but there would have to be a very substantial jump to go from a team that hasn't finished above .500 since 2021 to a division winner. While I don't believe it will happen, the chances of it becoming a reality are probably greater than MLB fans give it credit for.

Some were high on the A's because of the potential of their offense. Well, the A's are 10-8 despite being tied for 22nd in the majors in runs scored and 24th in OPS. They've been winning because their pitching has exceeded expectations.

I don't expect that to sustain over the course of the full season, which is why I don't see them winning the division. But if it does, they have a shot. Not only have teams like the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners struggled, but again, the A's offense isn't playing close to its potential. If they hit like they should and get league-average pitching, why can't they surprise some people?

NL East

It felt like deja vu all over again for Atlanta Braves fans when Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep began the year on the IL and Jurickson Profar was suspended for PEDs, but their 12-7 record suggests otherwise. Unexpected heroes, like Dom Smith, Bryce Elder and Mauricio Dubon have emerged, helping the Braves overcome their injuries and slow starts from Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley.

That's obviously unlikely to be sustained. But if the Braves are 12-7 when they're missing as many key players as they are and have had some of their star hitters underperform, how good can they be when they're healthier and when their stars get going? This team has some serious upside and can absolutely win the NL East.

Overcoming the Philadelphia Phillies, who, yes, will get hot at some point, will not be easy. Assuming they can finally get some better injury luck, there's every reason to believe Atlanta will enter the final stretch of the regular season with a chance to win the NL East.

NL Central

The Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates are tied for first place in the NL Central, and I feel like both of them have similar chances of winning the NL Central. The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers were seen as favorites, and while I do think those teams should probably be the betting favorites to win this division, both the Reds and the Pirates have the talent to pull it off.

For Cincinnati, they're 11-7 despite an offense that's 27th in runs scored, a combined zero innings pitched from Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, and a 5.85 ERA from Andrew Abbott. They're finding ways to win despite a lot going wrong. Sal Stewart sure looks like the truth, and their starting pitching is as good as it gets when it's healthy. The rest of the lineup needs to produce, but the Reds absolutely have a chance, even if they shouldn't be favored.

The Pirates have a clear path to the division title as well. Paul Skenes generates most of the headlines, but he's far from a one-man show in their rotation. Whether it's Mitch Keller, Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler or Carmen Mlodzinski, Pittsburgh has a shot to win every single night, and I haven't even mentioned Jared Jones, who is on his way back from injury. The lineup is much improved as well, with the Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn additions. They'll struggle to hit lefties and won't be good defensively, but Pittsburgh's talent could overcome its flaws.

NL West

I'm not sure any non-NL West division leaders are favored right now to actually win their division. That's not the case for the NL West, though, as the Los Angeles Dodgers lead the way. Los Angeles has the best record in the majors, and if we're being honest, it'd be surprising if at any point they lost that title.

That's how good this team is. The Dodgers are nowhere near the peak of their powers, yet they're still dominating. Blake Snell and Tommy Edman and Kiké Hernandez haven't appeared in a single game yet. Mookie Betts is hurt. Edwin Diaz and Kyle Tucker have struggled. Freddie Freeman hasn't been great. Heck, even Shohei Ohtani got off to a slow start before playing like the MVP version of Ohtani lately.

The Dodgers have the depth on their roster to afford injuries and poor performances from certain players because they have stars everywhere you turn. They are built to not only win another division title but also win another World Series title.

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