San Diego Padres president of baseball operations and general manager A.J. Preller stole the show at the 2025 MLB trade deadline. The perpetually aggressive shot-caller transformed the roster, and its outlook for the remainder of the campaign. They suddenly look like a formidable threat amid a tight National League Wild Card race.
But does five transactions involving 22 players in one day give the Padres the boost they need to punch their ticket to the postseason? Can they legitimately win the NL? Let's assess how San Diego stacks up to other Wild Card hopefuls by pennant probability.
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National League Wild Card Rankings by pennant odds entering play on Aug. 8
1. Chicago Cubs
Pennant probability: 17.7 percent
The Chicago Cubs were relatively quiet at the July 31 cutoff point, though that might have been by design. That's because they already boast the most high-octane scoring unit in the business and a rotation that's trending upward, thanks to rookie starter Cade Horton. A lack of activity could be seen as a vote of confidence, or fear of losing standout slugger Kyle Tucker to free agency this offseason. Either way, the North Siders are ready to roll.
Chicago has been usurped by the Milwaukee Brewers for NL Central supremacy, but they have the firepower to give anyone fits. Horton is finding his stride, and southpaw ace Shota Imanaga is returning to health. Once Tucker puts his prolonged slump behind him, it's wheels up for the Cubs.
2. San Diego Padres
Pennant probability: 9.7 percent
Fortune favors the bold, and Preller's wheeling and dealing have paid immediate dividends thus far. Only the Boston Red Sox have undergone a better change in postseason odds since seven days ago. San Diego's top decision-maker put all of his' chips on the table and has seemingly solved the problems in San Diego overnight.
Newfound depth, a revamped bottom third of the batting order and arguably the best game-ender in the league give the Padres life. Preller's upgrades may be enough to propel them to supplant the Cubs atop the Wild Card standings. But San Diego can now start to think even bigger: dethroning the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West crown.
3. New York Mets
Pennant probability: 5.1 percent
Losers of five of their past six games following the deadline, the early returns of the New York Mets' moves haven't been promising. In contrast to the Padres, no club in the Majors has experienced a steeper decline in playoff odds over the past week. Slowly but surely, the Amazin's have let the NL East slip away, ceding high ground to the defending division champion Philadelphia Phillies.
A bullpen overhaul and the addition of longtime Baltimore Orioles outfielder Cedric Mullins haven't given the Mets the facelift lead executive David Stearns hoped for. Relievers Gregory Soto, Ryan Helsley and Tyler Rogers have allowed one earned run across 9.1 combined innings of work upon arriving in New York. However, well-chronicled offensive woes continue to plague this group to the extent that they can't be trusted.
4. Cincinnati Reds
Pennant probability: 1.3 percent
The Cincinnati Reds didn't make splashy swaps like the Mets and Padres, but they sneakily made impactful ones. Third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes has acclimated to his new home nicely, proving that the Pittsburgh Pirates were the problem, not him. Right-hander Zack Littell made franchise history in his team debut, accomplishing something only four players before him did in the past century and a quarter. Veteran utility man Miguel Andujar has been a useful depth piece.
Cincinnati has clawed its way back to contention after losing to the Cubs and falling to 29-31 on June 1. Whether they have enough beyond All-Star shortstop Elly De La Cruz to maintain this momentum through September is up for debate. Nevertheless, the Reds have shown us they won't go down without a fight in the quest to snap a four-year playoff drought.
5. San Francisco Giants
Pennant probability: 0.7 percent
Sending Rogers to the Mets and parting ways with closer Camilo Doval and their longest-tenured position player, Mike Yastrzemski, was telling. The San Francisco Giants effectively waved the white flag less than two months after reeling in the biggest fish of all in superstar slugger Rafal Devers. Life comes at you fast, which folks in the Bay are experiencing firsthand.
San Francisco was 10 games above .500 when they landed Devers from the Boston Red Sox. Now, they're a couple of defeats away from having a losing record for the first time all season. Despite having one of the stronger pitching staffs, a weak lineup prompted the Giants to operate as clear sellers, so let's treat them as such.
6. St. Louis Cardinals
Pennant probability: 0.3 percent
Like San Francisco, the St. Louis Cardinals pawned off players to the highest bidder to replenish their farm system. A midseason surge made the Redbirds look like they might be a fixture in October baseball. Alas, their wings have been clipped, with the organization staring down the barrel of what figures to be a long winter with plenty of change.
Similarly to the Giants, again, St. Louis rerouted a valuable late-inning arm to the same direct competitor. There's perhaps no greater indicator of throwing in the towel than helping your rival. The Cardinals' lone All-Star representative, utility man Brendan Donovan, has tailed off dramatically since his blistering start to the year. Uncoincidentally, the squad has regressed accordingly.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com entering play on Aug. 8.