The Nolan Arenado trade sweepstakes has been long and exhausting, with very few suitors actually interested in the St. Louis Cardinals star. The Houston Astros had, at one point this offseason, agreed to a deal with the Cards for Arenado's services, but the player himself turned it down via his no-trade clause. Since then, the Cardinals have struggled to find a realistic landing spot, and have also over-achieved beyond even fans' expectations. That puts the Cards front office in a tough spot. Could the Detroit Tigers offer a potential out?
Jim Bowden, a former MLB GM who writes for The Athletic, hypothesized a trade that would send both Arenado and Ryan Helsley to Detroit. There are several problems with this package, including Arenado's no-trade clause, and the return (which I will get to). Such a trade would require the Cardinals to take on a significant portion of Arenado's salary, and for the Tigers to send their No. 2 prospect, infielder Kevin McGonigle, to St. Louis.
"The only reason the Tigers would consider making this deal is if they felt Arenado would be a difference-maker at third base, both offensively and defensively. More importantly, they’d add Helsley, an impact closer to go along with high-leverage relievers Will Vest and Tommy Kahnle — a strong trio, especially in the playoffs," Bowden wrote.
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The Tigers aren't going to trade a top prospect for Nolan Arenado
That is not going to happen, especially considering the Cardinals don't have much leverage. Arenado's been on the market for some time, and while the Tigers could use an upgrade at third base and in the bullpen via Helsley, they are not about to mortgage their future to do so. Scott Harris has been consistent in that regard.
McGonigle is the Tigers second-ranked prospect and the No. 22-ranked prospect in the league per MLB Pipeline. For Detroit to give him up, they'd need to acquire star-level talent, in part because that is what they project him to be at the next level.
Kevin McGonigle's scouting report makes him tough to trade
McGonigle is only 20 years old and currently thriving in A-ball. He hit a towering home run on Tuesday to put a cap on any trade rumors involving him. MLB Pipeline is particularly high on him:
"(McGonigle) didn’t whiff on more than 12 percent of his swings against any major pitch types in the FSL, and his 8.5 percent K rate at both levels was sixth-best among 1,081 Minor Leaguers with at least 300 plate appearances in 2024...Most of his reps came at shortstop in 2024, but many evaluators still believe he’s a better overall fit at second base over the long term. McGonigle’s hit tool placed him on the map in a big way, making him a core piece of a burgeoning Detroit system."
Since Harris took over, the Tigers haven't been ones to part ways with young talent in exchange for short-term gain. This will also be the first deadline since then that Detroit is in contention for a playoff spot, as the Tigers secured their 50th win on Tuesday night.
All that being said, Harris doesn't view the Tigers as a short-term project. Detroit is young and ripe with talent, and Harris is building a team to contend for the long term. Trading McGonigle goes against that philosophy entirely.