The Philadelphia Phillies just took two of three against the New York Mets and have won nine of their last 11 games overall to reclaim first place in the NL East from their rivals in Queens. At 47-31, the Phillies hold a 1.0 game lead over New York in the NL East, and are just 0.5 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers for the best record in the National League. Vibes are good for the Phillies, and they should get even better now that the Mets are set to host the Atlanta Braves for four games.
Yes, that's right. After back-to-back series against NL East foes, the Phillies get to watch their two biggest rivals and biggest threats in the division face off against each other while they head to Houston. Facing a Houston Astros team that's played well won't be easy, but it won't be nearly as pressure-packed as it is facing a division rival.
With that being said, as weird as this is to say, it feels as if no matter what happens during this Braves-Mets series, the Phillies will be sitting pretty.
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Phillies are biggest winners of Braves-Mets series without participating
The Braves are set to face the Mets for four games at Citi Field. No matter what happens, a run through all of the scenarios will show that the Phillies come out as winners.
Let's say the two bitter rivals split the four-game series. Well, as long as the Phillies don't get swept in Houston, they'd maintain first place over the Mets in the NL East, and Atlanta would be at least 10.0 games back.
Let's say one side wins three games - would that be the end of the world? If the Mets win three games, maybe they'll take over first place, depending on what happens with the Phillies in Houston. If the Braves win three games, the Mets will almost certainly lose ground on Philadelphia in the NL East, and Atlanta would still be too far away to be considered a major threat right now.
The only scenario that'd be kind of annoying is if either side pulls off a sweep. If the Mets sweep the Braves, they'd automatically gain ground on Philadelphia, as the Phillies only play three games in Houston. However, if the Mets sweep the Braves, Atlanta would automatically lose ground, making their already unlikely path to winning the division that much more challenging. If the Braves sweep the Mets, they'd appear far more formidable in the NL East race, but that'd allow the Phillies to gain more separation on New York.
Again, no matter how you slice it, the Phillies win.
What should the Phillies' preferred outcome of Braves-Mets series be?
This is a good question, and I honestly think the answer depends on how threatening Phillies fans view the Braves. If Phillies fans see the Braves as threats to potentially go on a miraculous run to steal the division (they've done it before), they should hope the Mets win or sweep the series. This might feel counterintuitive since the Mets are Philadelphia's current competition at the top of the division, but a Mets series win would give the Phillies a golden opportunity to bury the Braves once and for all this weekend when they head to Atlanta.
If Phillies fans don't see the Braves as threats at all, they should hope for a Braves sweep. If they think the Braves won't challenge the Phillies at the top no matter what, they should want Atlanta to make life as hard as possible for the team's top competitor.
The safest option would be to hope for a series split. With a split, the Mets likely won't reclaim first place, and the Braves wouldn't gain too much, if any ground. The Mets and Braves beating each other up would allow the Phillies to gain some much-needed separation.
Still, while there might be a preferred path in the eyes of some Phillies fans, no matter what happens, Philadelphia wins.