Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The Pittsburgh Pirates face a critical decision on extending Brandon Lowe before a potential MLB lockout in 2027.
- Current payroll constraints and ownership hesitation make a lucrative offer unlikely despite the player's historic performance this season.
- The front office's hesitation now could leave the franchise without a proven star as the next free agency class lacks comparable infield talent.
The time is now for the Pittsburgh Pirates to start thinking about contract extensions. Sure, it's unlike Pittsburgh to extend star players during the regular season, but with an MLB lockout looming in 2027, the Pirates might miss their chance if they blink twice. When it comes to star second baseman Brandon Lowe, who is signed through the end of next season thanks to a club option, Pittsburgh may have already missed their chance.
It'd be unlike the Pirates to outspend any team for Lowe's services in free agency. Thus, they'd be best-served making him an offer now. However, given the amount of money already tied up in this payroll — over $117 million, per Spotrac — I'd be surprised if Bob Nutting is willing to spend another dime this season barring a major trade deadline addition on an affordable contract. Lowe's new deal would not be that.
The Pirates should've extended Brandon Lowe when they acquired him
Pittsburgh's best chance to extend Lowe would've come shortly after trading for him. The Pirates acquired Lowe, Mason Montgomery and Jake Mangum in a three-team deal involving the Rays and Astros. Considering Lowe's chances of a lucrative extension were so low in Tampa Bay, had Pittsburgh offered some of the money committed to high-profile free agents who didn't sign with the Pirates (see Kyle Schwarber or Framber Valdez), perhaps Lowe would already be under contract long term.
In just 53 games, Lowe has already surpassed his bWAR from each of the past four seasons. He is on pace to have the best year of his career.
Season | bWAR |
|---|---|
2022 | 0.9 |
2023 | 2.1 |
2024 | 2.4 |
2025 | 1.8 |
2026 | 2.5 |
This is despite the fact Lowe is a league-average defensive player at best. His bat has meant that much to the Pirates lineup.
What kind of contract should Brandon Lowe expect in MLB free agency?
Lowe will be 32 years old when he reaches free agency. That should be good news for the Pirates, as it'll limit the term on his next deal. However, should Lowe continue to hit this well, the AAV will be too far out of the Pirates price range.
What could work in the favor of Pirates fans is a looming salary floor, which would force small-market teams like Pittsburgh to spend a certain amount of money on the roster each and every year. That money could be invested in a shorter-term asset like Lowe, especially if he's a 4.5-plus bWAR player over the next couple of seasons.
The issue for the Pirates is that the next two free agency classes are lacking in infield talent. Next winter, Jazz Chisholm Jr. could get the bag. In 2027, maybe rival contenders will back up a brinks truck to Lowe's house. While the club option for 2027 does give the Pirates some negotiating power, Lowe's agent can ask for a blank check if he helps lead Nutting's sorry organization back to the playoffs for the first time since the mid-2010's.
The Pirates missed their window, and there was plenty of evidence Lowe's power at the plate would translate well to PNC Park. Failing to act was lazy management by Cherington and Pittsburgh's front office.
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