When the Chicago Cubs made the shocking decision to throw a bag at Alex Bregman this offseason, it created an infield logjam that put Nico Hoerner squarely in the crosshairs. Almost immediately, though, Chicago made clear that it had no intention of even entertaining a Hoerner trade, and they've made good on their word with Opening Day just a month or so away.
But what about keeping him around for the long haul? Hoerner is about to enter his final season of team control, and while the Cubs under Jed Hoyer have proven they have the stomach to watch All-Star players walk out the door, it's hard to understand why they wouldn't do whatever they could to keep a two-way stud who is among the best players in the league at a premium position.
Of course, saying that in the abstract is the easy part. Actually putting up the money is where things get tricky; here's what it'll take to make Hoerner a Cub for life.
Can the Cubs sign Nico Hoerner to a contract extension?
While Chisholm is almost certainly ticketed for free agency, there's reason to be far more optimistic about the odds of Chicago locking Hoerner up before the season begins. The Cubs, for their part, have never been shy about how much they love what he brings to the table: Consider the fact that they've already extended him once before (with a three-year, $35 million deal that bought out a year of free agency) and how quickly they shot down any inkling of trade rumors after they signed Bregman in January.
And while the Yankees are famously averse to extending players while they're under contract, Chicago has been far more willing to engage in the Jed Hoyer era (and under Theo Epstein, at whose right hand Hoyer sat for years before taking over the head job). Hoyer, for his part, has expressed a willingness to talk extensions all offseason with names like Hoerner and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Which, for a franchise that has shown an unwillingness to shop at the very top end of free agency, makes a lot of sense.
The only question, then, is whether Hoerner would forgo his free agency just months from hitting the market. The answer there should also be yes: While Hoerner has been a very good player at a premium position for years now, the fact remains that he doesn't come with the same sort of ceiling as a player like Chisholm. His lack of power caps his upside, and the extent to which his value is predicated on his speed makes for a slightly dicier proposition when considering a contract that would lock him up into his mid or late 30s. There's a deal to be struck here, if the two sides can come together in time — and if the Cubs are willing to pay the necessary price.
The biggest second baseman contracts in MLB right now
Just what might that price be? To answer that question, let's try to find some comparisons from recent history. Here are the current highest-paid second basemen in the sport:
Player | Years | Total money | Age at signing |
|---|---|---|---|
Xander Bogaerts | 11 | $280 million | 30 |
Marcus Semien | 7 | $175 million | 31 |
Jose Altuve | 5 | $125 million | 33 |
Ketel Marte | 6 | $116.5 million | 31 |
Andres Gimenez | 7 | $106.5 million | 24 |
Kristian Campbell | 8 | $60 million | 22 |
Jeff McNeil | 4 | $50 million | 30 |
There aren't a ton of clean comps here. Gimenez and Campbell signed their deals before they even hit arbitration, while the Bogaerts deal is such an outlier that the Padres are now desperate to try and move off of it before it's even halfway done. But if we're looking for a benchmark here, it would be something around $25 million a year — which Altuve got, and Semien cleared.
Hoerner is two years younger than Semien was when he signed his deal, and four years younger than Altuve. But, while his WAR totals over the last few seasons are impressive, he's never shown the sort of upside that those two players did. Semien hit 45 homers and posted 7.1 bWAR in his walk year with the Blue Jays in 2021, while Altuve was still earning MVP votes (in addition to his status as a franchise icon and future Hall of Famer). Last year was the first time that Hoerner has ever posted an OPS+ of 110 or higher (he finished at 114), and although he's a remarkably consistent hitter, the lack of pop means he'll be hard-pressed to reset the market here.
Hoerner does have the leverage of his looming free agency, and a paper-thin class of position players set to hit the market next winter. Still, I have a hard time believing that he can reset the market at second base; this is just not the sort of player that commands irrational bidding wars, and we know that the Cubs will walk away if a price is too rich for their liking. But while I don't think Hoerner will reach that $25 million AAV, I think he can get close, and as stated above, he has good reason to sign now rather than wait.
Predicting Nico Hoerner's next contract
Final prediction: Five years, $110 million
This feels about right to me. Hoerner deserves to be paid as one of the very best players at his position, even if he gets there in a unique way that might make a long-term deal a bit trickier than you'd think. This puts him above Marte and just behind Semien and Altuve in terms of AAV, while carrying through his age-33 season — offering the possibility of landing another multiyear deal before his career winds down.
Would the Cubs pull the trigger there? I think they'd be foolish not to. Hoerner is a very valuable player, and while they do have Matt Shaw waiting in the wings, that's a risky transition to sign up for when there's still a lot we don't know about Shaw as a big-leaguer. Chicago could have lots of money coming off the books with Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ also hitting free agency next offseason, and of the three, I think Hoerner's two-way value makes him the best investment. If the Cubs don't pay him this, someone else certainly will.