Predicting MLB Rookie of the Year winners after a historic Opening Day

We knew going in that Opening Day would feature a ton of exciting rookies making their MLB debuts. But it took exactly one game to go from reasonable excitement to asking whether this might be the best rookie class in recent baseball history.

Hyperbole? Maybe. But hey: Opening Day is a time to let hope run wild, especially when it begins with New York Mets top prospect Carson Benge hitting his first career MLB homer and ends with Cleveland Guardians outfielder Chase DeLauter going yard not once but twice.

And that was just the tip of the iceberg on a day full of sensational performances from rising young stars. But who was the most impressive — and who will be able to sustain it over the course of a full season? Here's how we see both the AL and NL Rookie of the Year races ahead of what could be a historically tight vote.

MLB's rookie class of 2026 had a historic Opening Day

There were so many awesome rookie performances on Thursday that it's hard to keep track of them all. Tigers shortstop Kevin McGonigle, one of two or three best prospects in the entire sport coming into the year, got his career started with a four-hit attack in a win over the Padres — just the sixth player since 1900 to post at least four hits in his MLB debut. DeLauter, Benge, Cardinals infielder JJ Wetherholt and White Sox infielder Munetaka Murakami all went yard in their first big-league games, the most players to do so since at least 1900 according to Sarah Langs of MLB.com.

And that wasn't even the half of it:

• OF Chase DeLauter, Cleveland Guardians: 3-for-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
• SS Kevin McGonigle, Detroit Tigers: 4-for-5, 2 2B, 2 RBI
• 2B JJ Wetherholt, St. Louis Cardinals: 1-for-4, HR, 2 RBI
• INF Sal Stewart, Cincinnati Reds: 3-for-4
• OF Carson Benge, New York Mets: 1-for-3, HR, 2 BB, SB
• OF Justin Crawford, Philadelphia Phillies: 2-for-4, R
• 1B Munetaka Murakami, Chicago White Sox: 1-for-2, HR, 2 BB

It's not just that these rookies balled out amid the adrenline of Opening Day. It's that all of them entered their first MLB seasons with sky-high expectations and immediately performed anyway. And that could set us up for a Rookie of the Year chase for the ages.

AL Rookie of the Year prediction: Kevin McGonigle, Detroit Tigers

Perhaps the most absurd part of all of this is that this race has barely even begun yet. The Blue Jays and Royals have yet to play their first games, which means we've yet to see guys like Kazuma Okamoto (who sure looked legit in spring training) and Kansas City catcher Carter Jensen (who was brilliant in a cup of coffee last season). Trey Yesavage, Tatsuya Imai and Connelly Early haven't pitched this season, and Orioles slugger Samuel Basallo could still well hit 35 homers.

And yet, from here, it's hard to see how this isn't McGonigle's award to lose. It's not just the numbers he put up on Thursday, although they were indeed extraordinary (and fully backed up by both the batted-ball metrics and the eye test). It's the approach at the plate that's advanced beyond his 21 years, the way he commands the strike zone while still being able to grip it and rip it when he does get a pitch he can drive.

It's also his importance to a Tigers team that figures to at least be the best in the AL Central and could well compete for a pennant this season. If Detroit wants to reach its ceiling and make one last push with Tarik Skubal in town, it's going to need more consistent offense than it got last October; this version of McGonigle is a game-changer, and when you combine his hit tool with his defense at a premium position and the narrative force behind him, that'll be tough for voters to ignore.

If I were going to put someone else in his stead, it might be DeLauter, who's looked like a star whenever healthy since being drafted back in 2022. But, well, his ability to stay healthy remains a question mark, which makes him a tough choice here.

NL Rookie of the Year prediction: JJ Wetherholt, St. Louis Cardinals

Unlike McGonigle, Wetherholt won't be playing for a contender this season (barring something truly miraculous in Chaim Bloom's first season at the helm of the Cardinals), so he'll have to fight against disappearing down the stretch. But voters are far better about that sort of thing than they used to be; if you're the best statistical candidate, you'll likely get noticed no matter what, and Wetherholt should put up a very compelling case.

He's going to be play every day, for starters, and do so at an up-the-middle position. He's also looked pretty much MLB-ready since the day he was taken in the first round out of West Virginia back in 2024, rocketing through the Minors with .300 averages and 20-homer power. That probably overstates his hit tool a bit — he could specifically struggle with elite velocity now that he's facing the best pitchers on Earth — but he's such a well-rounded player that he'll accrue plenty of value thanks to his defense, baserunning and IQ. And if he brings the pop we saw at Busch Stadium on Thursday, he'll be a star sooner than later.

Of course, the field around him is rugged. Cincy's Sal Stewart tallied three hits off Garrett Crochet on Opening Day and could put up big numbers in a hitter-friendly home park. Konnor Griffin has yet to debut, but when it does it'll be with as much hype as any prospect in recent memory. Oh, and Mets righty Nolan McLean looked like a Cy Young candidate late last season.

Still, Griffin showed his youth at spring training, and Stewart isn't as polished of a hitter for all his physicality. McLean should be very good for the Mets, but it's harder to trust a pitcher, and I'm a bit spooked by how he looked at the World Baseball Classic. Unless he or, say, Pittsburgh's Bubba Chandler or Philly's Andrew Painter can ball out, Wetherholt feels like the complete package, and we know that Cardinals fans will keep his candidacy front and center.